Is the LDS Church actually shrinking? We’re talking about LDS disaffiliation with  Jeff Strong, author of the new book Torn: Why People We Love Are Leaving the Church and What We Can Learn from Them. While official membership records show steady growth, the reality of active participation tells a much more complex story. In this episode, I’ll sit down with Jeff to break down the startling data behind modern disaffiliation.

Jeff Strong brings a unique perspective to this issue, drawing on a 28-year career in the consumer products industry, including time as a global president at Johnson & Johnson. Having “cut his research teeth” at companies like Procter & Gamble—which spends hundreds of millions on research annually—Jeff applied that same corporate-level rigor to studying LDS membership trends. His research team consists of 12 people, nine of whom hold PhDs, including former church researchers with decades of experience.

The 40% Statistic: Reality or Hyperbole?

The centerpiece of the conversation is the claim that roughly 40% of members have disaffiliated from the church over the last 25 years. Jeff explains that while his study landed on this conservative estimate, several major national studies support this range:

  • The Pew Religious Landscape Study pegs the number at 46%.
  • The Harvard Cooperative Election Study consistently shows numbers in the mid-40% range.
  • The General Social Survey (GSS) suggests disaffiliation could be as high as 50%.

The “Leaky Bucket” and the Ward Growth Paradox

To understand how the church can still report growth while losing so many members, Jeff uses a “leaky bucket” analogy. In the United States, approximately 160,000 new members (converts and children of record) “enter the bucket” each year, while roughly 40,000 “leak out” through disaffiliation.

The most striking evidence of this trend lies in the disparity between membership and ward growth: since the year 2000, members of record have increased by 60%, yet the number of actual wards has only grown by about 11%. This suggests that while more names are being added to the records, the number of active, participating congregations is not keeping pace.

“Not Since Kirtland”

We discussed the famous quote by former church historian Marlin Jensen, who noted that the Church has not seen this level of disaffiliation since the 1830s in Kirtland, Ohio. While Jeff clarifies that the “sky is not falling” and the church is still experiencing modest real growth, the data indicates that growth is slowing and may have even hit a point of slight decline in the U.S. recently.

Rise of the “Church History” Wave

One of the most striking findings in Jeff’s research is that 42% of respondents identified Church history as their primary reason for leaving. This represents a significant shift from older research, like Jana Riess’s The Next Mormons, which found that social and lifestyle factors were more prominent.

Jeff acknowledges that these reasons are often complex and personal, but the magnitude is undeniable. He compares the situation to a forest fire: “You don’t need an average mean temperature. You just need to know—is it hot enough to kill you?” For thousands of Latter-day Saints, the “fire” of Church history has reached that critical temperature.

Big Data Meets Artificial Intelligence

To capture these insights, Jeff’s team conducted a massive 71-question survey that reached 15,000 people across the full belief spectrum—from hyper-orthodox members to those who are “hard out.” The engagement was unprecedented: 11,000 participants spent an average of 90 minutes sharing their stories.

This resulted in over 10,000 pages of personal “verbatim” responses. To analyze this mountain of data, Jeff’s team utilized AI to query the data set, allowing them to identify patterns and nuances in the “heartache” of faith loss that traditional statistics might miss.

Methodology: Beyond the “Snowball Sample”

Jeff addresses common criticisms of internet-based research, clarifying that his study was not a simple “snowball sample” thrown randomly onto the web. Instead, it was a stratified convenience sample that specifically targeted diverse groups on Reddit (such as the ex-Mormon and LDS subreddits), Facebook, and through organizations like Scripture Central and Faith Matters. This approach ensured a broad Foothold in different demographics and levels of devotion.

What do you think of Jeff’s research? Is 40% too high or too low?

In posting this information, I was surprised to see some stereotypical “angry ex-Mormons” piling on the Church in the Youtube comments. While I understand the sentiment, why would they take this opportunity to rail against the Church when Jeff’s whole point of the project iis to validate their experiences and try to help the Church become more hospitable?