Joseph Smith’s plural wives

One of the most frequent arguments raised by skeptics of Joseph Smith’s polygamy is the “fertility paradox.” While Joseph Smith fathered 9 biological children with his first wife, Emma, there are zero verified offspring from his estimated 30 to 40 plural marriages. Many have used this fact to claim Joseph Smith didn’t practice polygamy, or at least had no sexual relations with his plural wives. DNA testing on suspected plural children has continuously ruled out Joseph as the father in every known case. Does this lack of physical evidence prove his plural marriages were non-sexual? Using statistical analysis, I argue that the absence of children is not a biological impossibility, but rather a predictable outcome of history, biology, and law.

Statistical Models of Probability

This is an update to my previous presentation. I worked with Dr. Joseph Stanford (OB/GYN-U of Utah), Mark Tensmeyer (JD), Dr John Kidd (Utah Valley Univ), & Dr Amanda Hendrix-Komoto (Montana State.) We built four statistical models to determine the mathematical probability of Joseph Smith having zero children with his plural wives. These models factored in female ovulation cycles and historical documentation of Smith’s whereabouts, assuming no birth control was used:

  • Restricted & Low Models: Assuming very infrequent relations and excluding teenagers and already-married women, the probability of zero children sits between 22% and 47%. The Restricted model equates this to a coin flip. The medium model is like rolling a double on a pair of dice. This are not uncommon outcomes, making zero children a statistically unsurprising outcome.
  • Medium (Consensus) Model: Assuming one or two encounters around the time of the sealing for a broader group of wives, the probability of zero children drops to roughly 9% to 13%. This equates to rolling a 4, 5, or 6
  • High Model: Only when assuming large possible historical encounters across 37 women does the probability of zero children become statistically microscopic (around 0.03%).

Biological Factors and 19th-Century Demographics

A significant reason for the lack of children stems from the demographic makeup of Joseph’s plural wives. Historian Dan Vogel released a video earlier in the day, and noted that at least five women were post-menopausal (over age 47) and 11 were “polyandrous” wives already married to other men. It makes sense that their legal husband had more frequent access than Joseph Smith did, so it shouldn’t be surprising when these DNA tests came up negative for Joseph Smith’s paterniity.

Furthermore, several brides were teenagers. Poorer nutrition and rigorous physical labor in the 19th century delayed a woman’s first period (menarche) until an average age of 17, meaning many of the youngest wives were likely prepubescent and physically infertile at the time of their sealings (See Dan Vogel’s presentation.)

Contraception and the Concept of “Quickening”

Whlie the restricted, low, and medium models show that 0 children is not surprising, if the High Model is accurate and sexual relations were frequent, pregnancies should have happened. It is clear that the Nauvoo community had widespread access to birth control. Popular texts from the 1830s heavily circulated knowledge about methods like the sponge, withdrawal, and highly acidic douching to prevent pregnancies. Additionally, 19th-century medical and Mormon theological consensus believed that a soul did not enter a fetus until “quickening” (around 20 weeks.) Because of this, early herbal interventions used to “restore the menses” were viewed simply as regulating the female body, rather than as abortion or sin. Abortion was known to exist in Nauvoo with rumors of John C Bennett able to perform them. Fellow blogger Mary Ann Clements noted a story in Secret Covenents where Gustavus Hills offered a tea to Mary Clift to induce an abortion in Nauvoo. She declined. This shows Nauvoo resiidents were well aware of birth control and abortion practices were known, available, and likely used.

Legal and Theological Survival

Ultimately, concealing pregnancies was an absolute necessity for Joseph Smith and those practicing polygamy. In Illinois, bigamy and adultery were felonies heavily penalized by fines, whipping, and imprisonment. Under the law, a child would serve as incontrovertible physical proof of illicit cohabitation, inviting immediate legal prosecution and mob violence.

To avoid exposure, the theology of plural marriage subtly shifted. Many polygamy skeptics cite Jacob 2:30 and claim the only reason for polygamy was to raiise up righteous seed. If Joseph wasn’t doing that, he was violating this scriptural principle. While originally grounded in an “Abrahamic” mandate to multiply and raise up seed on earth, the practice pivoted to a “Melchizedek” order. This new paradigm was focused on creating secret, dynastic priestly linkages for eternal salvation in the afterlife, entirely bypassing the legal dangers of earthly procreation. Williiam V. Smith discusses this in his chapter of Secret Covenents.

In short, the absence of children in Nauvoo polygamy is not a historical impossibility, but a reality forcefully shaped by 19th-century logistics, biology, and the heavy anvil of American law. Don’t miss my previous presentation!

Have you tried to discuss this issue with polygamy skeptics? What has been your experience?