This projection is based on data collected from W&T permabloggers who have voted or are likely voters in today’s election, as well as known votes of family members volunteered by the participating perms. Here is the data volunteered by W&T perms:
- Permabloggers: All 13 perms responding voted for Joe Biden. Of those 13, three had always voted Republican until the 2016 election, and one had always voted Republican until the 2020 election.
- Spouses: Six spouses of perms voted for Joe Biden and one spouse voted for Donald Trump.
- Kids: Ten kids of perms voted for Joe Biden and one kid voted for Donald Trump.
- Other: One mother-in-law voted for Joe Biden after declaring she was “done with the GOP after Trump.”
In total, therefore, we have 30 adults voting for Joe Biden and two adults voting for Donald Trump. I recognize that some of you have taken a statistics course or two and will be tempted to point out in the comments that sample data collected from the W&T contributor group does not provide a sound basis for projecting the behavior of the entire United States voting pool. I agree. For that kind of a projection, go visit FiveThrityEight.com or some other reputable polling site. The purpose of this W&T internal poll is to show how a handful of relatively informed more-or-less Mormon adults have cast their votes. And, yes, to allow dozens of relatively well informed commenters to weigh in with their votes and responses in the comments.
Let me hasten to add that this W&T projection is at least based on actual date provided by actual voters. That alone makes it more reliable than many of the posts you read about the election on Facebook (which might very well have been posted by a twenty-something Russian troll living in Azerbaijan) and some of the media posts you have read (which are often long on opinion and short or even totally lacking in actual data).
The Next Three Days
Alas, November 3, 2020 will not be the end of the election. There will be late-arriving but entirely valid votes to count for several days. There will be legal challenges that could drag on for three days or three weeks. If Biden wins as projected here, there will be 78 days in which a lame duck President Trump will still control the levers of executive power. For some of us, that’s a scary thought. As recounted in some detail in the Atlantic article “The Election That Could Break America,” the legal and constitutional procedures for resolving disputed election results in various states and at the federal level are disturbingly ambiguous, particularly in a close election when neither candidate is willing to concede. Here are a few quick points to ponder.
- We won’t have a winner on election night. It is possible but not likely that a landslide result will support a suitably certain determination that one of the candidates will get 270 or more electoral votes. If that does not occur, we may see a few very ugly days in the courts, in the media, online, and even in the streets.
- Trump will never concede. It doesn’t matter what the actual voting numbers are. It doesn’t matter whether it is a close election that turns on a state or two, or a landslide. Pres. Trump will never publicly concede that he lost a fair election and will never make a concession call to Joe Biden. We’ve never had an election where the losing candidate did not, at some point, end the contest with a concession.
- Expect the unexpected. Just as Trump’s presidency has been full of surprises and this election cycle has been unusual — because of Covid if nothing else — we can confidently expect some surprises on election day and during the post-election period, and, if Biden is elected, during the transition period and during the formal exchange of office on January 20, 2021. Of the many guesses about what Trump may do if he faces a lame-duck period between now and January 20, the most probable is that he would issue a large number of presidential pardons. The most interesting possibility is that a peeved Trump might simply resign from office and let Mike Pence assume presidential duties until January 20, which isn’t really such a bad idea and might appeal to both Democrats and Republicans.
A Few Final Comments
Let’s be entirely serious here in the final paragraph. If you haven’t voted yet, get out there and vote. Wear a mask. Be patient. Don’t bring firearms. Don’t argue with other voters. Don’t let politics, including this election, cause a rift in your family. Remember that it’s only four more years until another presidential election. This too shall pass. God bless America.
Wheat & Tares 
If it’s any comfort, I don’t plan on doing any looting, rioting, name-calling, or public meltdowns if Biden wins. 😉
“Don’t let politics, including this election, cause a rift in your family. Remember that it’s only four more years until another presidential election. This too shall pass. God bless America.”
Amen. This is much like what I wrote four years ago. It is sad to hear of family members disowning each other over election differences. Life goes on.
I didn’t vote because I moved recently and didn’t make time to register to vote in my new location.
Whoever wins, I will be okay if the Tabernacle Choir is invited to sign at the inauguration, if the public health situation allows for such.
Eli, I will riot for you. Please PM me your address and I’ll share the spoils. Because I have been given much, I too must give.
Kidding!
+2 votes for Biden from my spouse and me (both early 30s active LDS)
+3 votes for Trump from our 3 voting parents (all early 60s active LDS, and obviously not on the bloggernacle)
The electoral-college clincher: My spouse and I vote in PA; parents vote in MD and CA. So go nuts, we said.
It is troubling to me how many family relationships have been severed over this. At the same time, it’s very hard to respect the opposing side, particularly since both sides are operating from a completely different set of facts and how they interpret the facts they do have (usually through either political teams or through values that they’ve been handed by their political team).
I had a discussion with a conservative relative a few days ago, and this person was criticizing actions their governor had taken in response to the pandemic, but using a strictly partisan argument that this governor was doing it for political gain. I pointed out that if their governor got funding for their state by doing the thing being claimed, then my relative was a beneficiary of this action. I also pointed out that the action in question had improved our understanding of the timing of the virus in another state, and is part of the scientific inquiry into the virus (whether their governor did it for the science or for political gain is not for me to say). I doubt this was convincing to my relative who probably scurried off to his Hannity comfort bubble, but I wasn’t actually trying to argue or convince. I don’t give a crap about their governor, and I live clear across the country, so it’s nothing to me personally. I was just trying to point out that what they saw as an obvious evil (a politician trying to garner funding and attention) also had likely positive effects for citizens and for our scientific knowledge. I don’t think this conversation was terribly adversarial, but I’m sure we both left it with a “wow, that person is deluded by partisan lies” perspective. Maybe that doesn’t matter, but maybe it does.
I also saw people sitting in front of the N. Phoenix temple in lawn chairs on Sunday waving Trump flags to all who drove past. I had to wonder if they were associated with the Church. I’m sure plenty of people assumed they were.
But are we still expecting the EC votes to end up going to Trump? I’ll be very surprised if they don’t.
Utah’s EC votes, I meant to say.
Yes, I expect Utah’s EC votes to go to Trump.
Most states are decided. The following states are within the margin of error and could go either way, so these are the states that matter the most: NV, AZ, TX, IA, MI, OH, PA, FL, GA, NC
According to FiveThirtyEight.com, these 4 states may not be decided tonight: WI, PA, MI, and possibly NC. (Florida apparently counts quickly, and should be decided tonight, but may be close. So glad we don’t having to worry about hanging chads!)
As a Jewish mom in the neighborhood I grew up in would have said, “from your mouth to God’s ear!”
A friend just told me she has sisters who are twins. They shared a uterus. They’ve gone through life as a pair for 80-some years. They’re on the opposite side fo the Biden/Trump question and they haven’t spoken for months.
Imagine what it would take to cause that rift! My friend just hopes they’ll be able to repair it once the election is over.
As I’ve said before, the Spirit of Discernment is officially dead in Utah.
Mark, Moral leadership too. Tell us about moral questions. Not credible.
Thanks for the comments, everyone.
At this point (8 am Mountain Time on the morning after the election) the election is still undecided.
This was a pre-election post. I’m going to close this thread and let post-election discussion occur on other threads.