In Saturday afternoon’s conference session, we will see two new apostles called into the Quorum of the Twelve. These two men will have significant impact on the Church in the future.
Let’s take a look at the recent patterns and some of the most likely candidates and make some predictions.
Here is some information, looking at the 15 men that made up the Quorum of Twelve and First Presidency before the deaths of Pres. Monson and Elder Hales.
Age range at time of being called as apostle:
High: 67.1 (Elder Cook)
Low: 36.1 (Pres Monson)
Average: 58.2
Median: 60.2
The highest previous calling:
Presidency of 70: 5
Church University President: 4
Presiding Bishop: 3
70, President of Area: 1
Other: 2
Isolating on the 8 most recently called apostles, all since 2000:
High: 67.1 (Elder Cook)
Low: 52.3 (Elder Bednar)
Average: 61.5
Median: 63.0
The highest previous calling:
Presidency of 70: 5
Church University President: 1
Presiding Bishop: 1
70, President of Area: 1
Other: 0
The trend recently is a little bit of age increase and more focus on presidency of 70. With this in mind, let’s look at the most likely candidates. Strong preference should be given to Presidency of 70 with age range 60-65.
Main Pool
Craig C. Christensen, 62.1, Presidency of 70 six years, GA 10 years, played football at BYU, MBA, Chile mission. Maybe he can get BYU in the Big 12. 35% probability.
L. Whitney Clayton, 68.2, not to be confused with Michael Clayton who also was known as the “fixer”, Presidency of 70 ten years, GA 17 years, lawyer. I would say he’s too old and there’s little chance, but the ProgMo online community seems to think he’s a shoe-in. 20% probability.
Ulisses Soares, 59.5, Presidency of 70 five years, GA 13 years, from Brazil, MBA, worked for Church prior to GA. 18% probability.
Gerrit W. Gong, 64.3, hecka smart, Rhodes Scholar, Oxford doctorate, former advisor to the Q12, Presidency of 70 two years, GA seven years, raised in California, Chinese ancestry. I loved watching how he handled himself in those leaked videos where he would tutor the brethren on current events. He is by far my favorite in this list. 16% probability.
Walter Gonzalez, 65.4, from Uruaguay, GA 17 years, current Area President but was Pres. of 70 for six years prior, multiple advanced degrees, worked for Church for many years. 15% probability.
Juan A. Uceda, 64.8, Presidency of 70 less than one year, GA seven years, from Peru, a little on the inexperienced side but is on this list as an ideal first Latin American selection. 12% probability.
Lynn G. Robbins, 65.5, Presidency of 70 four years, GA 21 years, from Springville Utah–Red Devil Pride, MBA, co-founder Franklin Quest. 12% probability.
Gerald Causse, 54.9, Presiding Bishop for 2.5 years, GA for ten years, from France, a little young and on the inexperienced side but very popular and last European pick was a homerun. My second favorite on the list. 12% probability
Carlos Godoy, 57.2, GA experience doesn’t quite fit top tier profile, but he’s been a GA for 10 years including president of an Area for three years, from Brazil, master’s degree from BYU. 10% probability
Secondary Pool
Patrick Kearon, 56.8, Presidency of 70 less than one year, GA seven years, gave the well known conference talk on refugees, from England, no college degree. 8% probability.
Jose Teixeira, 57.1, Area President, from Portugal, honorary Latino for serving in Area Presidency in South America. 6% probability.
Marcos Aidukaitis, 58.6, Area President, from Brazil, BYU MBA, GA seven years. 5% probability.
Adrian Ochoa, 64.1, from Mexico, GA five years, Area President. 5% probability.
Robert Gay, 66.5, Harvard PhD, GA five years, Area President, unfortunate last name. 5% probability.
Paul Pieper, 60.5, lawyer, Area President, GA 10 years, extensive Russia experience. 4% probability.
Paul Johnson, 63.8, Church CES Director for seven years, GA ten years. 2% probability.
Randy Funk, 65.7, Area President, GA for four years, mission president in India, lawyer. 2% probability.
Shayne Bowen, 63.6, business guy, good looking, GA ten years. 2% probability.
Kevin Worthen, 62.0, BYU President but only for four years and no prior GA experience. 2% probability.
Wild Cards
Kim Clark, 69.1, former BYU-I president
Tad Callister, 72.3, strong talk in conference on Book of Mormon
Orrin Hatch
Edward Dube, 55, possibly first black apostle, GA four years, from Zimbabwe
Steven Snow, 68, GA 17 years, Church Historian and high profile spokesman
*Kevin Pearson, GA for 10 years, 61.0 years, Harvard MBA
*This was added due to a late breaking rumor going around that someone found and leaked an internal document or accidental publication showing L. Whitney Clayton and Kevin Pearson as the two new apostles. Hmmm….
I did an analysis before the First Presidency selections of Pres. Oaks and Pres. Eyring and said that with almost virtual certainty, Pres. Eyring and Uchtforf would be retained. There was huge precedent and protocol that counselors were not removed with a new presidency. I kind of mocked some of the critics who said things like “I bet they demote Uchtdorf and put in a hard core like Oaks.” I was totally wrong.
We can make good guesses based on patterns. But Pres. Nelson appears to be bucking tradition. In addition to the counselor change, there are rumors that there will be major changes this conference. In terms of whether this presidency will be progressive or not, that’s hard to tell as well. The presidency change suggests conservative but the recent response to the MTC sexual abuse scandal was on the progressive side.
Only two of the last 15 called came from outside the traditional callings. One of them was Russell M. Nelson. So maybe all this conventional wisdom can be thrown out.
Buckle in, it could be a wild ride.
Prediction
I’ll go with Christensen and Soares. I think this will be a historic time for the first non-white and first Latin American. There are several good choices there. Then I think they will go with a traditional type pick like Christensen or Clayton.
Wheat & Tares 
If Mormon leaks really predicted Clayton and Pearson, that’s a death knell for their chances. Nelson would rescind the call just to screw mormonleaks. On the other hand maybe that’s a strategic move on the part of Mormonleaks to deny Clayton and Pearson from getting the call .
From what I understand of Mormonleaks and other similar critics, they would want the most conservative/controversial leaders to rise to the top, because they think that will be the quickest way for the Church to die, or shrink in its influence. Clayton is definitely known for being controversial and ultra conservative. I don’t know if that’s warranted or not. I don’t know much about Pearson, but initial rumblings are that he’s perceived in a similar way.
Does the fact that it’s a potential leak make a difference? I thought the exact same thing as Mormon Heretic about the First Presidency, and we all know how that turned out.
Buckle in for a wild ride?
They will read the two names in a sonorous voice and they will be among the most boring and conventional people I can image.
AND NOTHING WILL CHANGE.
I am of the opinion that the church is going to try and rectify the “goof” of the last 2 apostles being white guys from Utah. My prediction is that one will be one of the white guys and the other will at least have a foreign sounding name/accent.
WHY? I really believe that there are those in the COB that really pay attention to what happens out in the bloggernacle and they also do surveys and focus groups as any truly holy-ghost inspired true church would. As my evidence, look at what happened during all the Ordain Women hoopla. In spite of their outward opposition to the Ordain Women movement, basically within a conference cycle, the Relief Society presidency pictures (in all their bright colors), young women presidency pictures, and primary presidency pictures showed up on the walls of the conference center (which none of these faces were seen publicly prior); and magically, overnight, the 9 women leaders in the church were moved from the far right side of the red chairs facing the conference center to front and center, just below the pulpit! And then a woman gave the opening prayer in conference for the first time in 180+ years. Then it was told us that women would be on the major committees for the church. So, yeah, I really think someone is paying attention, and we’ll see at least one non-white or foreign man in the apostle-ship.
Gerrit W. Gong!!! Please, please, please! I would love some old school scholars.
Elder Gong was my bishop growing up, and in my experience he’s pretty hard-line.
If nothing else, this post got me really excited for Conference. Thanks, churchistrue!
I don’t know about the statistical probability, but my top three picks are Gong, Causse, and Soares….
No women?
I am guessing that they will choose someone who is related to them either directly or by marriage. I predict Whitney Clayton because of his hard-time response to children of gay parents and shunning those who have lost their faith.
Heartbreaking prediction: Causse and Whitney.
Hopeful, but completely unrealistic prediction: Kevin Pearson and Marlin K Jensen
I think Clayton has been spoken of last go round too. The biggest issues with him (he is an old family friend of my husband’s family) is that he was THE face of Prop 8 om CA. And it was very divisive to Church members, but he was a good soldier and took the body blows so it will be most interesting to watch and see. But I would handicap him higher, but he is the face of Prop 8 and many of us are more than unhappy about that mess……
My picks are Kazuhiko Yamashita, Carl B. Cook, Enrique Falabella and some outlier
Surprised that Elder Teh from the Philippines isn’t at least mentioned as an option here. Picking a Filipino would simultaneously (a) somewhat placate the cries for international representation, while (b) not being seen as bowing to the specific demand for someone from Latin America.
Still, my prediction: Gong or Kevin Worthen, and Suares.
Even when I was super active,I never got very excited about who was being called to be an aposrle.They never seemed to have any real authority until they became the prophet. Now who was being called to be the Primary President in my ward was an important calling that affected my children .
It’s easy to assume that mormon leaks made that leak (Clayton and Pearson), but they didn’t.
That “leak” was posted to Reddit by someone, who deleted his post within minutes, and then followed up with a new post saying he removed it because he doubted its authenticity. Several other people got screen shots of his post before he took it down.
The original was a screenshot of a directory of leaders that only bishoprics and clerks had access to (several former bishops recognized it) listing members of the 12 mostly in order of seniority, with Clayton and Pearson at the bottom. Except Uchtdorf was misplaced in seniority – he was just above Renlund. Also, the page said it was last modified in January, which wouldn’t be the case if Clayton and Pearson were added.
Bonnie Oscason and Valerie Hudson please. (No, I don’t have dementia yet. Just a dreamer.)
My teenage daughter sarcastically predicted that “maybe they’ll be diverse and call someone from *Idaho.*” Seriously, by the time the Q12 isn’t made up of conservative white guys who oppose The Gays and everything about them, they will have *already lost* my daughter’s generation.
Mortimer, please explain. What would be heartbreaking for you for Causse? And what is hopeful for you about Pearson? I don’t have any personal connections or much of a thought about either, but the general consensus I hear from the Progmo world seems to be the opposite sentiment as you. Curious what your experience has been.
Any merit to the idea that the Brethren (or God, or both) will be looking to offer a consolation to progressives, in the wake of the changeup of Oaks and Uchtdorf?
Regarding Elder Gong’s Midi-chlorians, “the readings are off the chart,” indeed.
Why is nobody commenting on the really bold prediction. The statement on Craig C. Christensen of, “Maybe he can get BYU in the Big 12. 35% probability.” To say that he has a 35% chance of getting the Cougs into the Big 12, Wow. That is an audacious prediction.
Hah, no. The 35% probability is the probability for Christensen to be called as apostle. I’m giving 3:1 odds. The BYU in the Big 12 is a pipe dream. But if he can get us in, he has my vote.
Are there any Vegas bookies taking wagers on this topic? If I understand it the church does not accept tithing from gambling winnings, so there is that. 🙂
Claudio M. Costa
No M.D. General Authorities?
Teryl Givens and Adam Miller. (A guy can dream, right?)
MTodd – That would be so unbelievably awesome. If they don’t make apostleship, can they both at least be on the committee to write church manuals?
ReTx, Church curriculum committee may actually be a more impactful position anyway given that we change our curriculum only every third or fourth generation.
Total threadjack, but I’m still scratching my head over this one:
“The presidency change suggests conservative but the recent response to the MTC sexual abuse scandal was on the progressive side.”
Do people actually think that response was progressive??? I guess they didn’t literally stone the accuser, so it’s progressive compared to the Old Testament, but I honestly don’t get what was progressive about it. The church reported the victim, not the abuser, to the police, and they handed a fat dossier they put together on the victim to Bishop’s son. I don’t see how their strategy of discrediting the victim and protecting Bishop with every tool at their disposal, despite his taped confessions, while faintly condemning abuse in the abstract counts as progressive.
End rant.
The Church reported Bishop to the police for investigation. I don’t consider him the victim in any way.
Back on topic, I wish it had been Echohawk called to the 12.
However, I can’t complain about the calls at all. Wonder who will blog about Gong and Soares first?
Quoting
Elder Gong received a bachelor of arts degree in Asian and university studies at Brigham Young University in 1977. In 1979 he received a master of philosophy and in 1981 a PhD in international relations from Oxford University, where he was a Rhodes Scholar. In 1985 he served as special assistant to the undersecretary of state at the U.S. State Department and in 1987 as special assistant to the U.S. ambassador in Beijing, China. \
From 1989 he served in several positions at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C. He was assistant to the president for planning and assessment at Brigham Young University until April 2010.
Elder Soares received a bachelor of arts degree in accounting and economics from the São Paulo Pontifical Catholic University, School of Economic Science in 1985 and later received a MBA degree. His professional career has included the positions of accountant and auditor for multinational corporations in Brazil and director for temporal affairs in the Church area office in São Paulo, Brazil. At the time of his call to be a General Authority, he was serving on a special assignment for the Presiding Bishopric of the Church in Salt Lake City.
Elder Soares has served in a number of Church callings, including full-time missionary in the Brazil Rio de Janeiro Mission, elders quorum president, counselor in a bishopric, high councilor, stake executive secretary, regional welfare agent, stake president, and president of the Portugal Porto Mission (2000–2003).
Ulisses Soares was born in São Paulo, Brazil, on October 2, 1958. He married Rosana Fernandes in October 1982. They are the parents of three children.
Don’t want to thread jack, but this is not correct:
“The Church reported Bishop to the police for investigation.”
Careful reading of the church official statements and police reports reveals that the church reported the victim’s death threats against Bishop to the Pleasant Grove PD and they investigated to make sure Bishop was not in immediate danger. The church’s official statement on this issue obfuscates the details and makes it seem like they reported the assault, which is not true. They reported to Pleasant Grove PD, which had no jurisdiction over the original assault. The Pleasant Grove PD talked to the victim to determine if the death threats she made were earnest, but they did not investigated the original assault. By her own admission, the victim made actual death threats against Bishop, so reporting that to authorities is appropriate, and since the church is not a witness to the original assault I’m not sure they could have reported it. But it does nothing to mitigate the other numerous gross misteps and negligence the church has done in this case, in not believing the victim and in allowing Bishop to continue to hold positions of trust.
The original assault was investigated because the victim herself had already reported to the appropriate police department, but the matter was closed due to statute of limitations.
I would like to humbly point out that Gong and Soares were both my picks. I’m starting a GoFund me page for my new 1-800-psychic help line. Discounts available for bishops and stake presidents!