Mitt Romney blasted Donald Trump this week in a speech at the University of Utah. CNN and Bloomberg News are reporting that Mitt is exploring the option to block Trump at Republican National Convention. This could result in either a “contested” convention, or a “brokered” convention.
The last “contested” convention was 1976 (Reagan-Ford, but Ford still won.) If you’re interested in the math behind a contested convention, click here. Thomas Dewey won the last “brokered Republican convention in 1948, then lost in an upset to Harry Truman. (You’ve probably seen Truman hold up the newspaper “Dewey Wins” because the newspaper got it wrong.)
At the 1924 Democratic National Convention led to 102 ballots of deadlock between frontrunners Alfred E. Smith and William G. McAdoo before dark horse John W. Davis was chosen as a compromise candidate on the 103rd ballot. Davis lost to Calvin Coolidge (R) in the general election.
So, a contested or brokered convention isn’t a sign of strength for Republicans, and probably amounts to a loss for Republicans no matter what. It’s not a death sentence however; everyone expected Dewey, the brokered winner of the Republican Convention, to beat Truman because Truman so unpopular. Even still, Truman won.
If Trump felt he was screwed out of the nomination, he could also mount a third party campaign. There are rumors that former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg is also considering a late bid, especially if Hilary Clinton’s emails cause her problems. Presumably, Bloomberg would take away voters from Hilary Clinton. If he joined the race, there could be a 4-way race: Trump, Romney, Clinton, Bloomberg. Let’s say chaos reigns. Which of the following options do you like best?