Clear President Monson’s calendar.
The recent passing of three apostles means the Church President will likely call three replacements this week, and depending on where they come from, he might just need to call replacements for the replacements as well.
Who will they be? I’m glad you asked.
Today’s guest post is from the handsome Carter Hall, aka Hawkman.
Six years ago, I researched the selection of recent apostles, using the trends I saw to determine who might be under consideration as the next apostle. My sample included all apostles called since Pres. Monson entered in the First Presidency (FP). He wasn’t in charge in most of these situations, but I assumed he was involved to a greater extent in the decision-making process, if not the revelatory process, as he counseled with then Presidents Benson, Hunter and Hinckley.
Since Pres. Monson joined the FP in November 1985, ten apostles have been called to the Quorum of the Twelve (Q12). I reviewed their pre-apostolic resumes to see if I could identify common factors that may have led to their selection, and for what it’s worth, Pres. Monson’s first two selections have fit in perfectly with the other eight.
AGE
The last ten apostles called have all been between 52 and 69 years of age, but we can drill down a little further than that:
- 6 of the 10 were clustered together in the center, aged between 57 and 63 when called.
- 2 of the 10 were younger than the norm: Holland (53) and Bednar (52).
- 2 of the 10 were older than the norm: Wirthlin (69) and Cook (67).
- Beyond these nine I found that new apostles are seldom called once they reach the age of 70; it has happened only 5 times in the history of the Church, and the most recent, Hugh B. Brown, was over 50 years ago.
Based on recent history, I’ve placed the “target range” for apostolic callings in the late 50s or early 60s. Pres. Monson’s first picks were right in the target range, at ages 63 and 57.
EXPERIENCE
The last 10 apostles came from 3 different pools:
- 6 of the 10 were called directly from the Presidency of the Seventy (P70), which makes sense organizationally
- 2 of the 10 served in the First Quorum of Seventy (1Q70), but served in the Presiding Bishopric (PB) rather than the P70.
- 2 of the 10 were current or former presidents of Church-owned universities. E. Holland had also subsequently served in the 1Q70, but not the P70. E. Bednar had only served as an Area Authority/Area Seventy in addition to his time as president of BYU-Idaho. I found it interesting that these 2 had such different paths to the Q12 because I had already considered them outliers based on their age when called.
Another way to state this is that 9 out of 10 new apostles had served in the 1Q70, plus had spent time in the P70, PB, or as president of a Church university.
LENGTH OF SERVICE
I was surprised to find little correlation to length of service in the P70 and an apostolic calling, at least for the sample as a whole. Of the 6 who served in the P70, the time they spent there varied widely from 5 weeks (Wirthlin) to 10 years (Christofferson). Others served 2 months, 2 years, 4 years, and 5 years. That may have changed a bit with Pres. Monson, whose first two apostolic callings have been to Presidents of the Seventy who were right at or near the top of seniority within those groups.
More interesting is the correlation between total time served in the 70 (any quorum), PB, as university president, or Assistant to the 12. 9 of the 10 newly called apostles had at least 10 years combined service in these groups. Only Bednar (always the outlier) fell short of this mark.
EDUCATION
Apostles are generally viewed as successful men, but I had never really looked at what that meant for the recent apostles in my sample. Careers were varied, but the vast majority had impressive educational pedigrees. Think Harvard (3 times), Purdue, Yale, Duke, and Stanford, mixed with several educational abbreviations (Ph.D., MBA, J.D.).
It occurred to me that the bar may have been raised from “accomplished” to “educated and accomplished”. This realization caused me to dig a little deeper before making my final predictions.
GLOBAL APOSTLE?
Most members I know would be excited by a non-American apostle, but I doubt that’s a box that Pres. Monson feels he has to check off, affirmative action style. Still, a new apostle from outside the U.S. is exciting, validating the idea of a global Church, and it would bring a new perspective to the Q12. It’s certainly not a data-driven conclusion, but I think it will happen this time, especially with three openings.
For evidence, look no further than the change in the 1Q70 over time. When Spencer W. Kimball first formed it in 1976, nearly 80% of the original members had been born in Utah or Idaho. Now, it’s a very different story:
- In 1976, 79% of the first quorum of the 70 came from Utah or Idaho. Today only 37%.
- In 1976, 13% came from other US states. Now 19% do.
- In 1976, 8% were from Europe. Now 10% are Europeans (not much change).
- The biggest shift is in membership from other regions of the world. In 1976, there were no members of the 1Q70 from Latin America, Asia / Pacific or Africa. Today there are 22% from Latin America, 8% from Asia / Pacific and 5% from Africa.
New apostles primarily come from the pool of Seventies called 10-20 years ago, so it’s easy to see why the shift hasn’t happened yet. It will happen more and more (on a delay) as the Church and 1Q70 become less Utah- and U.S.-centric.
PREDICTIONS
Based on all these criteria, here is my updated list of individuals I see as the most likely candidates for the open spots in the 12. In reality, any of these men could be selected to join the Q12, and there are doubtless others who are well-qualified; these are simply those who best fit the profile that I can construct based on recent trends. My picks are divided into 3 tiers:
TIER ONE
- Ronald A. Rasband. Currently the senior member of the P70, and his age (64) is in the target range, although at the high end. Has served in the 1Q70 over 15 years, 10 of which he’s been in the P70. In his two picks so far, Pres. Monson has shown a leaning toward the senior members of the P70. Maybe it’s just me, but I also feel like Rasband been a little more visible in the media recently.
- Walter F. González. Currently a member of the 1Q70 (over 14 years) and President of the South America South Area, but was previously in the P70 (5 years). While it’s true that nobody has ever been released from P70 and later called to Q12, only 15 apostles have been called since the 1Q70 was organized in 1976. There’s just enough history to surmise that it could never happen. González was originally in my Tier Two, but I reconsidered when I looked at his age (62) and the four area presidencies in which he’s served.
- Ulisses Soares. Currently a member of the P70 (3 years), with 10½ years of total service as a GA. That puts him a little on the lighter side compared to the other presidents, but he was also a church employee for years before that. I may be unintentionally giving him extra credit because he’s fairly well regarded in our ward, having visited here for stake conference a few years back when we were living overseas.
- < Surprise! > This pick harks back to the calling of President Nelson, Elder Oaks, and Elder Bednar. Few of us would have guessed President Kimball’s heart surgeon, a judge, or the youthful former President of BYU-I would be the next apostle, each with exactly zero experience as a GA. While three names from these lists could be called, I rather think that there will be one surprise pick that I could never predict in a million years, whether it’s a Seventy who hasn’t served in P70, someone from an auxiliary presidency, or Pres. Monson’s doctor.
TIER TWO
- L. Whitney Clayton
- Donald L. Hallstrom
- Richard J. Maynes
- Craig C. Christensen
- Lynn G. Robbins
I found it very hard to distinguish between the remaining P70, because each seems to have strengths and weaknesses in regards to the criteria I used. For example, Clayton and Hallstrom are older than the target range, but they have more tenure in the P70 (this hasn’t mattered historically, but may be more important to Pres. Monson). If I had to pick, I might prioritize Christensen and Robbins based on the age range, but it’s a tough call. I also doubt all three vacancies get filled from the P70, so if Rasband and Soares have already been called, for example, I think Pres. Monson will look elsewhere for the third vacancy.
- Claudio R. M. Costa Like González, Costa is a former P70 who remains in the 1Q70 (21+ years total), serving as an area president. He was in my top tier last time, but now he’s above the target age range at 66 years old. Additionally, when I started looking at the educational background (something I wouldn’t have thought imperative, but which has seemingly been valued recently), his profile only mentions that he “studied marketing” before shifting to his CES career.
TIER THREE
- Steven E. Snow Another former P70 who remains in the 1Q70 (14+ years total), serving as Church Historian since 2012. The Church was careful to have a lengthy transition between Marlin Jensen and Snow, so I have a hard time believing that Snow will be called to the Q12 without warning unless he has quietly been grooming his successor.
- Kim B. Clark. Just released as President of BYU-I this year and called to the 1Q70, I had an early eye on him for a Bednar-like run from Rexburg to the Q12. However, he was just named Commissioner of Church Education in August, so he probably stays put. CCEs have historically served for at least three years, but by then Clark will be 69½ years old.
THE REST
- Gary E. Stevenson. Currently serving as PB (3½ years), but spent time in the 1Q70 previously. With only one exception in the modern era, Presiding Bishops serve for a long time (11, 13, 9, 1.5, and 7 years), so I don’t expect a change yet. Stevenson is only 60, and could still have another chance after serving 3-5 more years as PB.
- Gérald Caussé. Currently Bishop Stevenson’s First Counselor (3½ years), and also served in the 1Q70. I also expect him to stay put, but PB counselors have moved more frequently than PBs, so I’m less certain Caussé stays than Stevenson. Caussé is only 52 years old, so I fully expect him to move up this chart in future versions.
- All three BYU schools have new presidents in the last 18 months, so I didn’t consider Kevin J. Worthen (BYU), Clark Gilbert (BYUI), or John S. Tanner (BYUH).
All others in previous P70s, Presiding Bishopric or presidents of universities are either over age 70 or have been released or given emeritus status.
Is there a dark horse I have missed? Have any of their conference talks or other messages been particularly meaningful to you? Who do you think will fill the empty seats?
One factor not mentioned is how much Pres. Monson will need to rely on his counselors in this process. Will that influence the choices, and if so, how?
Sam the Eagle, you’re right!
What about Tad Callister? He is former P70, currently general sunday school president, and age 69. He’s also a lawyer. I’d put him tier three.
I think if I got to choose: Marlin Jensen, Larry Echohawk, Soares
More likely: rasband, Clayton, Soares
I can’t imagine them not pulling at least one hard liner.
Also: they pulled a quick one in moving Kim “anklegate” Clark into Church Comissioner of Education with no advance notice. At the BYUI inauguration I saw that and went whaaaaa?
#1 hawkgrrrl – I don’t think Pres. Monson will lean more or less on his counselors than is normal, and even if he did, I wouldn’t expect a huge departure from the norm. Christofferson & Andersen were both called while this same FP was in place, so they know the drill.
#3 Joel – I almost put Callister in my category The Rest, but I skipped him because he was released as a GA at the end of his stint in the 2Q70, and because he’s so close to 70. I just don’t see it happening, but I probably should have included him just so it didn’t look like I missed him.
#4 Kristine – Echo Hawk would be a departure in that he hasn’t served in P70/PB/University, but it’s not impossible. Jensen is another story. It’s been nearly 60 years since an apostle was called while over 70 (Jensen is 73), and nobody has ever been called after receiving emeritus status (which he did 3 years ago). I know he’s well loved by many, but I just don’t see it happening.
Kristine A – what was “anklegate”?
OK, let’s say that God really does exist. I know that’s a big one, but if He does — here it comes — why wouldn’t He tell President Monson who these people should be? I find it so weird that this is discussed the way it is.
Rich, aren’t we supposed to study it out in our minds, and ask God if it is right? Didn’t Paul tell us in 1 Corinthians 14:39 “Wherefore, brethren, covet to prophesy”?
Gosh I’m channeling Jared a lot today.
Rich – maybe that is how Pres. Monson does it, in which case this is a glimpse into how God thinks about His next apostles… but I don’t think so.
I’m with MH, but I think of D&C 9, where Joseph was chastised for thinking he could just ask God and the answer would be given him. He was told to study it out in his mind, then come to God. This also aligns with the process E. Christofferson discussed recently. Pres. Monson prepares by thinking of names, asking for suggestions, then praying and pondering those names for a time before receiving whatever confirmation he feels he needs. I don’t think it’s at odds with revelation, I think it is revelation.
#7 Hawkgrrl, “Anklegate” was Kim Clark (as president of BYU-I) sending out a reminder to students that capris–or any other pant rolled more than 4″ above the ankle were not compatible with the school’s honor code, and the predictable blowback in the bloggernacle anytime modesty is discussed.
Luckily, the climate ensures that this is an issue for only about two weeks out of the year.
Good post. I am inclined to guess, Elders Clayton, Rasband, Costa. I like Elder Christensen, I met him here after our fire.
Sight unseen (meaning that I haven’t scrutinized the field of likely candidates as many of you seem to have), I’ll make a prediction that at least of the three new apostles will be a man of color. Likely a Brazilian if that happens, but one never knows…there’s no saying that a Stake President in Accra, Ghana might not get that call. Look at what happened back in 1943 with one Spencer Kimball of Safford, AZ got the phone call (Rudger Clawson had passed on recently and Richard Lyman was given the boot for practicing polygamy, so that brought in also Ezra Taft Benson from Idaho, but Kimball, having been nominated first, had seniority).
I confess that if we get more of brethren with six and seven generations of members in the family and rooted in “Yew-Tah” and “Idaho”, then I’ll be a tad disappointed, but it will serve as a reminder that the Lord doesn’t conduct the affairs of His Church to satisfy the sensibilities of yours truly. I’ll sustain those brethren even if they’re all “white bread and mayonnaise”.
Judging by how the brethren in my area have responded in my hour of need (my home burned to the ground and I and my beloved Snips narrowly escaped being barbecued, other than minor smoke inhalation I’m doing fine), I’d say that in whatever position the Lord appoints (wo)men, things usually work to demonstrate that He knows what He’s doing.
FYI recent article re selection process:
Elder Christofferson said the selection and calling of new apostles to the Quorum of the Twelve is the prerogative of the president of the church. “President Monson, I don’t know if this always has been the case, but his practice has been to ask each of his counselors and the members of the Quorum of the Twelve to give him names they would recommend for his consideration, not to discuss with each other but just individually, to give him whatever name or names they feel impressed he ought to look at,” he said.
“What process he goes through exactly, I’m not sure. That’s, again, something private he pursues. He then brings back, when he’s reached his decision and had the inspiration he needs, the name or names to the council that we have of the First Presidency and the Quorum of the Twelve Apostles to sustain it. That goes forward to general conference.”
In April 2009, President Monson selected Elder Neil L. Andersen as a new apostle after the December 2008 death of Elder Joseph B. Wirthlin.
“I recall this last time around when Elder Neil L. Andersen was called,” Elder Christofferson said. “Before that happened, we were just discussing casually before one of our meetings of the Twelve about the vacancy, and I remember President (Boyd K.) Packer saying, ‘We don’t have to worry, President Monson knows how to get revelation.’
“That’s what it is, a revelatory process in the end. Different prophets may approach it in different ways, but in the end, it’s finding out from the Lord who he wants.”
http://www.deseretnews.com/article/865637493/Elder-Christofferson-talks-about-how-President-Monson-calls-a-new-apostle-reflects-on-Elder-Scott.html?pg=2
I’d put Matthew Holland as a dark horse candidate, following in the surprise university president picks of the past–how great it would be to have another father-son duo in the quorum and someone on such a younger end! And there was that Jörg Klebingat in October 2014 conference who was so dynamic, and young and foreign.
I’d leave the church in a second if John Bytheway or Alex Boye got called. I think Rasband has zero personality, Callister is too connected. I am hoping for Russell Osguthorpe, Claudio Costa and would it kill anyone to call Robert Millet or someone like that?
I think there will be surprises. I can’t remember the last time 3 apostles were called in one hit. I think this provides opportunities that have never otherwise presented themselves. I see at least one being called based on the criteria above but then it’s an open playing field. I think we will see a greater international presence amongst the q15 over the next week
Dave, there’s a reason you can’t remember–it’s been more than 100 years. See http://www.wheatandtares.org/19015/elder-scott-passed-away/#comment-93641
One other important reminder: even if these three aren’t as diverse as we might hope, there are more to follow fairly soon. We have a quorum that is older than any previous quorum has been.
Was my previous comment censored?
Whatever the process is, I think it would be wonderful if President Monson spoke about it…bore his testimony and shared his confirmation of the choices made and of modern revelation. We will probably just see the formal sustaining, but I feel like we should have that information. In the past when the church was smaller, this type of info would get around. Today, it feels like they are hesitant to offend the spirit to talk about sacred things in essentially a public forum. We need some intimacy, but with 15 million of us, it’s probably not going to happen. We miss those sacred experiences. If one wants that, you can turn to personal revelation, which many people do, but it isn’t quite the same and we are left wondering these sorts of details. Personally, I suspect and also believe that at the GA level the inspiration and promptings are a lot more ground-shaking and miraculous. These people are being called as special witnesses!!!
Mortimer, I went through the spam filter and didn’t see a comment. So far as I know, we didn’t censor you. It was probably just a glitch.
I hope there´s a Latino, Gonzalez or Soares or Aidukaitis would be cool, better if its an area authority, however reflecting on the past it will probably be: “lawyer/businessman, white, older middle age” or close to that. A Sitati would be a revolution but its impossible to predict. Someone like Kim Clarke would do great publicity too for the church too seeing he was dean at harvard business for a while.
Hawkgrl 18, if either Hales and Ballard go soon then we are back to the average age quorum.
Dave 16, last time three were called was in 1906 when McKay was the youngest, but Monson may only call two this time round also, if he thinks Scott’s death came too close to conference … we wont know until Saturday I guess.
One more thing. I have never seen nor read about a convert being called to the 12, including and counting converts from teenage years. All apostles, including Uchtdorf have grown up in the church from at least the age of 8 onwards.
I wouldn´t mind being corrected on that. It`s something that always caught my eye. They do call converts, like Gonzales who joined the church as an 18 year old, to the Q70 but never Apostles -I think
#22 Charlie – That may be true except for the early apostles, all of whom were converts, but I think it’s another reflection of the pool that used to exist vs. the pool that is emerging now. As I mentioned before, Church leadership is far more diverse than it was 40 years ago, it just hasn’t reached the Q12 quite (beyond Pres. Uchtdorf) yet.
There is more to diversity than color of skin. Elder Bednar grew up in a home with a non-member father. Elder Holland’s father was a convert. Elder Oaks’ father died when he was 7 and his mother went back to college and then worked outside the home and was active in local politics. I would say that any of those formative experiences from our apostles is real diversity beyond the standard stereotype of multi generation member working father and multi generation member stay at home mother.
Thanks Mormon Heretic! I have a tendency to go overboard and have been censored on sine of the big islands on the bloggernacle. Thanks for letting me know there was just a glitch.
I had said that the 3 have already been called, probably set apart, through second endowments (if necessary), and may have been attending Thursday morning meetings for much of the summer. Translators may already have their names for conference and someone is typing their names into the tele-prompter. Nothing escapes the tele-prompter! The announcement is just for the masses as an informational note.
#25 Mortimer – I’m not so sure. I just checked up on the last five apostles called, and none of them would have known by this time, 4 days before conference:
Uchtdorf & Bednar – said they were called on the Friday before conference
Cook – late Thursday
Christofferson – Thursday
Andersen – late Wednesday
It’s moving a bit earlier, but I doubt they’ve been attending meetings with the Q9.
Hawkmaaan,
Wow, I hadn’t seen those sources and am shocked. Thanks for sharing. In the past, travel times and technology must have necessitated a longer prep time (I’m thinking about president kimball).
Mortimer – just read another one in the DNews interview with Pres. Nelson today: he was called April 6, sustained April 7.
General comment – After telling the story of his and Oaks’ transition into the Q12 as non-GAs, he specifically mentions that there could be a need for a similar transition period. Is he tipping Pres. Monson’s hand that they are calling a complete outsider(non-GA), or is that just on his mind because that was his experience?
I think it may just be a heads up that we might have one of the spots go through a vacancy this time around.
It will not be Rasband.
Uchtdorf and Erying will have a heavy influence, especially Uchtdorf so I think Crausse will be heavily considered as a fellow European.
I still say Robert C. Gay. I do also see Lynn Robbins along with Kevin Duncan. There is absolutely NO inside information with him being a relative (he married my Wife’s cousin Nancy Smart), but I did have a dream last night he would be called. It was surreal. He has served close with Holland in Chile.
Strongly agree on Soares. This is my brothers thought also, who was his Bishop and State President while he lived in Bountiful.
Noooooooo to Robbins o_0….. he’s the one that said ‘women are irresistible chocolate chip cookies that you can’t stop after just one bite’ at a BYU devotional. Horrible victim blaming approach to chastity (not to mention objectification of women’s bodies as a piece of food to be consumed). Yes, you always can say no – at no point do you lose your agency. I do agree with the message of being careful with the law of chastity; horrible metaphor, though.
I hope it isn’t Aidukaitis or however you spell it, his voice is annoying, same as that Marcus H. Martins of BYu Hawaii. Can’t stand it. I wouldn’t mind seeing Bruce D. Porter or Randall K. Bennett called. I would quit the church if John Bytheway or Hank Smith or some minor celebrity was called, Kirby heybourne or that annoying Alex Boye
Your Tiers 1 and 2 are solid, and I think we’re going to see 2 from the P70 called. I think the fact that there are 3 vacancies makes it harder to speculate any given one.
IMO, some brethren noticeably absent from your list are:
– David Evans (Tier 2)
– Anthony Perkins (Tier 3)
– Bruce Porter (Tier 3)
Side note: I know there has been a lot of talk about at least 1 of these 3 Apostles being international. Here are my tiers for international candidates:
Tier 1
Ulisses Soares
Walter Gonzalez
Tier 2
Christoffel Golden Jr.
Tier 3
Benjamin De Hoyos
David Baxter
My understanding of the process is that the entire twelve are heavily involved in the process of nominating candidates. Its as much a consensus thing as a Monson picks thing. This would follow both the “revelation as unanimous decision” doctrine that has seemed to be pretty well ensconced in the modern church and it also makes a lot of sense organizationally. One thing that explains most the past selections is simple broad visibility to those in the 12. This allows them to be validated and trusted broadly within the group. This helps to explain why apostles have tended to be called within the tight knit family networks. While this has loosened somewhat as the church has grown it has been replaced by bureaucratic interaction between the 12 and the next apostles. I would guess that if you could create a nice graph of where candidates have overlapped the responsibilities/world of the sitting 12 that have the most one on one exposure/interaction with the 12 should move to the top of the list. If you are looking for a “surprise” it would be someone who for idiosyncratic reasons is personally known to more of the 12 as it easier to get consensus the more people have diverse first hand experience with someone. So look how these people’s church service overlapped with the rotating responsibilities with the 12 over the years. I bet if you looked at your outliers’, such as Bednar, background you would find they were known personally by a wide range of the 12 and in that respect they weren’t that much of an outlier at all.
This is my final list. My 3 picks, in order of seniority, and my Top 25 most likely selections, college football style.
PICKS: Walter Gonzalez, Craig Christensen, Ulisses Soares
1. Craig Christensen
2. Lynn Robbins
3. Ulisses Soares
4. Paul Pieper
5. Walter Gonzalez
6. Bruce Porter
7. Richard Maynes
8. Marcus Nash
9. Benjamin De Hoyos
10. Paul Johnson
11. David Evans
12. Christoffel Golden Jr.
13. Shayne Bowen
14. Ronald Rasband
15. L. Whitney Clayton
16. Anthony Perkins
17. David Baxter
18. Steven Snow
19. Donald Hallstrom
20. Erich Kopischke
21. Craig Cardon
22. Claudio Zivic
23. Claudio Costa
24. Enrique Falabella
25. C. Scott Grow
#34 Rah – I’m sure you’re right, but I’m also sure that graph is never going to happen (at least not from me). The people with the most visibility to the Q12 are the P70, the PB, and the 70, with a side of BYU Presidents thrown in there. That’s good engough for me. The outliers are very infrequent (3 in the 40 years/15 callings I reviewed).
#31 – Kristine A, I looked up the talk you referred to. It’s definitely on the disturbing side, and there are other points I dislike even more than the uncomfortable cookie analogy. Unfortunately I don’t think that would disqualify him. The ideas expressed are pretty typical of how leaders have been talking for decades.
The interaction thing stated by rah in #34 is important. Elder Wirthlin grew up in the same ward as President Hinckley (and they were half-cousins). As a young missionary, Elder Bednar impressed Elder Packer while Packer was visiting Germany. Elder Scott was Elder Christofferson’s mission president. Elder Cook was a missionary companion of Elder Holland’s. Most of these guys have personal connections to existing apostles outside of service as general authorities. It’s a step up from just nominating family members, but it still limits the probable candidates.
People keep overlooking Clayton, and I think he’s going to be one of the three.
1) He was at the side of the Packers during the Brigham City temple Dedication (pictured behind them, but UN-NAMED in the Deseret news photo (the bloggernacle conspiracy theories swirled).
2) He was part of the Gilbert AZ Temple Dedication
3) He handled the Kate and John ordeal
4) He was part of the Prop 8 work (so I’ve heard through the bloggernacle).
Why would they involve him in these big projects- lean on him so much- involve him more than even other apostles, and then pass him by when there are 3 open spots? Seems to me like he has proven himself to be helpful.
On the other hand, he has been looked over for the position before.
Still, he’s a great orator (a lawyer), a quick speaker (like JFK), and is quite intelligent, maybe a shadow of Elder Maxwell?
Mortimer, he’s right there at the top of Tier 2. His biggest strike against him on paper is age and the fact that there are others from the P70 that are Tier 1 picks. We’ll see this weekend if you’re right.
I’m not at all in favor of him for apostle. Maybe High Inquisitor. But they don’t ask my opinion because nobody cares what I think. I am a complete nobody and a woman (aka “complete nobody”).
You ask why they would lean on him for the big projects, and speaking as a business person, the guy who cleans up a problem is not the guy who leads the group after the clean up. That’s why a lot of companies hire consultants to come in and do the tough stuff. That way they don’t have to work with them after the fact. Everyone can bond in their dislike of consultants. Putting the same person in as a leader who just did the unsavory work results in lack of followership. It’s disruptive to the group’s cohesion and the leader’s effectiveness.
People keep overlooking Clayton, and I think he’s going to be one of the three. . . He was at the side of the Packers during the Brigham City temple Dedication
As a lifelong Vikings fan, then, I would be greatly disappointed if he got the nod.
In re. #1, I think what Hawkgrrrl might be saying is that President Monson, regrettably, shows increasing signs of senility and we hear rumors of developing dementia. It’s been quite awhile since he showed much sign of the old spark, and many of his recent conference talks are rehashes, in whole or in part, of old talks and stories previously published in works like Pathways to Perfection (1973).
Clayton and Gay would be a disaster. Clayton’s already divisive enough. And Gay is too close to Mitt Romney. I can see the headlines “Billionaire Apostle Lays off thousands during tenure at Bain Capital. His Claims to help the Poor seem Hollow given past business practices of laying off so many.”
My non-GA pick (although his wife is) would be Craig Burton.
Hawkgrrrl,
You are probably right . . . corporations don’t hire the hatchet-men to be figure-heads. They stay behind the scenes. I’m rethinking my bid on him.
I’ve heard the rumors of senility, and frankly, don’t see it in him. When he waves at people, you see his eyes light up when he recognizes someone. There’s a spark of recognition and excitement as he passes by a crowd and finds one acquaintance after another. (People with Alzheimer’s and dementia instead stare longer with a confused look. They often don’t light up even around family members.) His last talk sounded like authentic Monson and was well-thought-through. I just don’t see the evidence that he is suffering from dementia, and even if he were, he used to have a photographic memory . . .maybe he is like the rest of us? He is a large-framed person with long-standing diabetes. My guess is that it’s his physical frame that’s slowing him down (something that didn’t affect petite President Hinckley.)
I have to be honest. Today I waited for the call, having been given FALSE HOPE through this thread that it might come at the very last minute. Gee thanks bloggernacle people. I began to feel pretty bad as I realized I’d been past over 3 times.
Then, I realized that there will probably be 3 new openings in the 70! I can still be a GA!!!
With hope restored, I’m putting back my tub of comfort-rocky-road-ice-cream and sitting right back by the phone again. I’ll keep the bloggernacle posted!
(Just kidding. Just kidding.)
I didn’t catch that Pres. Eyring continued as Church Commissioner of Education for 9 years after he joined the Q12. On realizing that, I’d probably bump Kim Clark up to Tier 2 or even Tier 1. Maybe Tier 2 because he’s 66+.
My mother has Alzheimer’s. If President Monson has Alzheimer’s he is not showing the true symptoms of Alzheimer’s. For as long as it has been rumored that he has Alzheimer’s, by now we would see signs of it. Unless he has Divine intervention.
He could have some form of dementia. Many diseases and just plain aging can cause impaired brain function and / or dementia. But getting old does not mean automatic dementia, and getting some diseases does not mean dementia.
My 55 year old husband has a rare autoimmune muscle degeneration disease and it causes problems with his thinking processes. He had to retire, ten years earlier than we planned. Everything I find on the disease never calls it dementia. Could it be classified as dementia? I don’t know and neither does anyone else that is familiar with this disease.
There are over two hundred types of dementia, caused by different factors.
Rasband, stevenson, and surprise univ pres. Can i take you to vegas for some sporys picks? (On the other hand, you did give yuourself a lot of wiggle room.)
Rasband – it’s nice when the top guy on your list is called. Makes it seem like you know something.
Renlund – I’m counting him as my guy. I figured someone like this would be called, but I had no idea who it would be. He wasn’t as predictable as the others, with no P70/PB/UPres background and only 6.5 years as a GA.
Stevenson – I missed on this one, placing him in my “The Rest” category. I missed that bet. I didn’t expect him to be released as PB after only 3 years, and he has only 7.5 years as a GA.
#48 Hawkmaaan,
Give yourself some more props. I know you did not rank Stevenson very high, but at least you mentioned him and gave him an individual write up. Renlund is definitely a “suprise”. I had not seen his name anywhere mentioned in the ‘nacle as a candidate.
Bishop Causse looks to be moving higher on the next apostle list, especially if he is called as Presiding Bishop, or to the P70 soon. He has a close connection to one of the apostles.
MH#8 and Hawkmaaan#9:
Ok, you guys are right. I haven’t been in this post for a while.
Two out of three aint bad, counting Rasband and Stevenson. Although when you’re gambling 66% isn’t worth much (and no I don’t think you can claim Renlund since there are always men no one thought of being called ie the ones you didn’t think about!)
But still congratulation for coming so close with your possibilities. And yes, when I go back to Vegas I’m calling you first 🙂
Now that the vacancies in the Quorum of the Twelve are filled, I looked at how likely each Apostle is to be the next Prophet. This takes into account their age, position in seniority, and age/health of more senior Apostles. I have put the other 14 Apostles into 4 Tiers.
Tier 1: Very Likely (note the University President background)
Elder Oaks
Elder Holland
Elder Bednar
Elder Stevenson
Tier 2: Somewhat Likely
President Nelson
President Uchtdorf
Tier 3: Unlikely
Elder Rasband
Elder Renlund
Tier 4: Very Unlikely
Elder Ballard
Elder Hales
President Eyring
Elder Cook
Elder Christofferson
“the guy who cleans up a problem is not the guy who leads the group after the clean up”
Well, looks like he just moved into hierarchy spot 16.
Clayton is 65, older than the three most recent apostle picks. If we get more vacancies soon, then he may have a chance, but he’ll be quickly moving out of the target age range.