Trump and his circle of fools has blundered into an unwinnable war with Iran. We should reflect a bit on what got us here. The US Constitution set up a system of government that was admirably suited to *avoid* many bad government decisions. Placing the power to declare war in the hands of Congress was supposed to prevent a foolish or aggressive president from starting a war on dubious grounds. Requiring the consent of Congress for the appointment of cabinet officers was supposed to filter out abjectly unqualified nominees. Establishing the federal courts as an independent branch of government with life appointments for judges was supposed to beef up barriers against unlawful actions by the executive branch.
This arrangement, and other systemic safeguards, worked reasonably well for the first couple of centuries, but has been less effective of late. In theory, the United States President should have access to the best intelligence information, get advice from the most qualified government officials and advisors, and be able to make generally good decisions. What could possibly go wrong? Let’s think this over, then do a Mo app, applying the same perspective to LDS leadership decisions.
Here’s what can go wrong:
- Intelligence agencies provide bad information because they are staffed and directed by less competent loyalists rather than nonpartisan experts.
- Good intelligence is provided, but ignored by decision makers.
- Good intelligence is provided and absorbed by decision makers, but they choose to pursue personal or partisan objectives rather than legitimate national or institutional objectives.
- Decision makers get the info and try to make decisions in the national or institutional interest, they’re just too stupid or lacking in good judgment to think their way to a good decision.
- Everything works right and good decisions are made, but due to incompetence in the executive branch the plans are poorly executed and fail.
- Good decisions are initially well executed, but circumstances change and leadership is unwilling or unable to change course, to change the plan in the face of adverse or unexpected developments.
So let’s run down those bullet points for Trump’s Iran War, a showcase for bad decision-making, then circle back to LDS considerations. (1) Trump chose an incompetent Director of National Intelligence, and the Senate confirmed her. (2) Trump routinely ignores what intelligence does make it to his desk. Reports consistently note how difficult it is to get Trump’s sustained attention for any detailed matter. (3) Corruption is off the charts in Trump’s administration. The most recent report being that Jared Kushner solicited billion dollar investments for his financial business while recently acting as a US envoy and negotiator. (4) Media reports that Trump was repeatedly advised by his Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of the danger of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz and the difficulty in preventing it, but Trump ignored or at least discounted that warning. (5) US military performance has been excellent, but good tactical execution cannot overcome a deficient strategic plan. Ask Napoleon about Russia. Ask Putin about Ukraine. (6) Trump seems unable to pivot to an alternative plan, now that Plan A (we bomb them, they surrender) has failed.
Okay, let’s look at senior LDS leadership and how they make decisions. Again, let’s look at the six bullet points.
- LDS leaders can get access to very good information, either in technical fields like law or finance or building plans, or in religious matters by calling on LDS historians and PhD religious profs. They can buy or get access too all the expertise they want.
- Sometimes LDS leaders listen, sometimes they don’t. It would appear, for example, that the LDS race-based priesthood and temple ban persisted as long as it did because LDS leaders received bad information in the 19th century, then ignored updated and more accurate info about it through much of the 20th century.
- I’m willing to grant that most in senior leadership do attempt to pursue legitimate institutional objectives. But sometimes an LDS President pursues what are essentially longstanding personal objectives, like Pres. Nelson stamping out the term “Mormon” from LDS discourse. Centralization of LDS power in the hands of the President (away from the Twelve or the FP Counselors) in recent decades makes this easier.
- Once initiatives or programs are approved, the LDS system does a fair job of executing, although it is still hit or miss. The Ministering program, for example, seems to be a big nothingburger. It was almost dead on arrival.
- LDS leadership can change course quickly, the best example being the 2015 Exclusion Policy decision, which was largely reversed just a couple of years later. But in general they will stick with a program or policy until forced by circumstances to reconsider it or make a change.
So the LDS governance system and decision-making by senior leadership does reasonably well, especially when compared to Trump and his crew.
So that’s the general topic and how it plays in LDS decision-making.
- Do LDS leaders live in an echo chamber? (See image at top of post.) Or do they get info and feedback from outside the circle of leaders and LDS bureaucracy? Echo chambers lead to bad decisions.
- Can you think of LDS examples of particularly good decisions in the past hundred years? Dropping Scouting, maybe? Two-hour church?
- Can you think of LDS examples of especially bad decisions in the past hundred years? Not adopting a mandatory retirement age for apostles when they put it in place for Seventies, maybe? The LDS curriculum, which gets worse every year, maybe?
Wheat & Tares 
I’m sorry, but since I don’t know anything about you personally, the “OP,” I will have to proceed generically.
I want to express a few big thoughts in a few words, which is going to be hard to do.
In my opinion, the most important bit of information, “intelligence,” operating in both the cases you propose, is a person’s or the decision-makers worldview.
Here is Bing’s answer to the question “How much enriched uranium does Iran hold?”
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As of mid-2025, Iran possesses approximately 972 pounds (around 440 kilograms) of uranium enriched up to 60%, which is just below weapons-grade levels.
Current Stockpile
Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium has grown rapidly in recent years. By mid-June 2025, Iran had enriched about 972 pounds (approximately 440 kilograms) of uranium to 60% purity, up from 605.8 pounds in February 2025 and 267.9 pounds a year earlier, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and CBS News reports. Uranium enriched to 60% is considered a short step away from weapons-grade uranium, which is typically around 90% enrichment.
CBS News
+1
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If the information we have is that Iran has enough uranium to create 16 atom bombs, but it may take just a small bit more enrichment to get there, and they have long-range ballistic missiles, and they have said millions of times for the last 50 years that their main goal in life is to bomb the United States into oblivion, do you take them at their word and try to stop them from getting a complete multi warhead Intercontinental nuclear missile capability, or do you decide they’re bluffing and do nothing?
If oil prices go up one dollar a gallon for one month, is the risk still worth taking?
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Switching to the church situation, we have ideological questions and mission questions on similar (or even larger) world scale.
As I read the Scriptures, the LDS church leaders are supposed to be prophets for the entire world and it is their job, their scriptural assignment, to build Zion on the American continent, see Article 10 of the Articles of Faith, with the assumption that getting the United States completely straightened out, operating a proper Gospel society, will also straighten out the rest of the world and then we can have what is called a Millennium.
In contrast, our church leaders (with at least two dissenters), under the direction of Wilford Woodruff, in 1896, decided that they had no such worldwide duties and responsibilities. The only duties and responsibilities they had were to retire comfortably in Utah, now that they had created a Mormon society, and do absolutely nothing for the remainder of eternity. If the United States and the rest of the world returned to barbarism and warfare as happened in the Fourth Nephi account of another restoration of the gospel, that that was not their problem. Their biggest problems today were working out church schedules and figuring out where to hide the excess tithing money (which they took through unscriptural methods).
Bad decision:
1. Dropping Scouting without a good replacement program. I would guess there is more pedophilia going on in church than in Scouts if the lawsuits are anything to go by.
2. Two hour church- Loss of community because everyone is so rushed on Sunday AND Relief Society has lost half of its meetings. RS is the only time women have to meet without a ‘presiding’ man in the room.
3. Dropping ‘Mormon’-Another Nelson ego, ‘I am now in charge’, trip. Doubt that it will last very much longer
4. Additions to Handbook about trans members. If the purpose is to get them to stop coming to church, it has probably worked. When you compare the number of trans members to the number of heterosexual male SA charges against the church, it would appear trans members are not the problem.
Highly relevant topic – from both political and religious perspectives.
Context matters. Truth matters. Mormon history is a litany of bad decisions. Selected examples in the past century include the 2023 SEC fines for a lack of transparency (lying), the Native American Placement Program (blatant racism), the September Six Excommunications, restrictions on academic freedom, unregulated and often abusive interviews with youth, and the continuation of harmful and exclusionary LGBTQ policies in various forms. There is not enough room here to itemize all their poor decisions.
Without exception, the Church errs on the side of adhering to outdated doctrines at the expense of exercising compassion. Leadership attempts to cling to their dwindling claims of exclusivity to the truth. They must understand the historical narrative of Mormon origins does not have authenticity. Hence, decisions are defensive in nature and based on the caveat that members must trust leadership despite empirical evidence to the contrary. Questioning core teachings risks relationships and identity.
Comparing the decision-making styles of Mormon and MAGA leaders is an exercise in frustration. Both movements are highly hierarchical, authority flows downward and loyalty tends to be personal rather than institutional. No surprise that the majority of Mormons support the war with Iran.
I think both 2 hour church and leaving Scouting were both good decisions. The decision to replace Scouting and Personal Progress with nothing, a decision that has been upheld for more than 6 years now, is a separate, terrible, decision.
To the larger question of whether LDS leaders live in an echo chamber, the answer is obviously yes. I struggle to see how anyone could even argue otherwise. (Probably someone will surprise me; this is the internet, after all.) Somewhat recently I sat down with my stake president to discuss an abomination of a policy change where the handbook explicitly gives area presidents the authority to make exceptions. My area president had indicated that as a blanket policy there would be no exceptions. (It appears the area president does not believe in the inerrancy of the handbook. This is one of the rare instances in which I agree with him.) But the most surprising thing from my discussion with the SP was when he said that he had no way of contacting the area president.
If Stake Presidents are so completely walled off from Area Presidents, I find it hard to believe that any feedback from general membership has any hope of ever reaching the Q15. Information seems to only flow downhill in this relationship. I do believe that the Q15 receives selective, curated feedback. Stories that are sufficiently faith promoting do reach them. This ensures that they can see success stories while being insulated from real feedback. They are either uncurious fellows that do not seek to find the truth for themselves, or they are naively deceived by the functionaries that attend to them.
It’s hard to blame everything on Trump when most Mormons voted for him, and he won the election nationwide because people didn’t believe he would do what he’s doing now. Trump goes to war without consulting Congress or our allies, and 83% of Republicans support him. It’s a bigger problem than Trump.
Does he rely on an echo chamber to make his decisions? He has one, but I don’t think he relies on them. He uses them. All those who support him also have echo chambers, either on social media or with the news they watch. They don’t ask any questions, let alone hard questions. Applying his actions to the scriptures and what Christ would do is just the beginning of asking questions. Instead, they say they’re Christian without acting like it and don’t even see the contradiction, even calling Christ’s teachings “woke.” No one talks about the parallels in the BoM at the end when the Nephites and Lamanites were fighting. The Nephites would win or lose, and it didn’t bring them to humility; it just fueled their war lust. Trump followers are doing the same with Venezuela, Iran, and, probably soon, Cuba.
The Church in its echo chamber does the same. It’s more worried about calling out LGBTQ individuals or pulling out the persecution card, except this time it’s for American Christianity, because of how the Church misinterprets the Constitution. Mormon politicians do that all the time, and the Church’s Leadership ignores it or makes some lukewarm statement that is, I think, specifically designed to be taken two ways. Prophets in the Old Testament prophesied about society rejecting God, but the prophets today are more worried about calling ourselves Mormon than they are about blatantly unchristian actions of a President or the views of a party that has rejected its conservative roots in favor of authoritarianism. The Church, founded on a question, now pushes away anyone who questions or calls them “lazy.”
I think that thing that bothers me most is that the echo chamber of the President allows him to do more outrageous things, the echo chamber of the Church pulls back and does less to confront it. It just builds more temples in public, spends its money in secret, or publishes more articles about the money it gives while neglecting to include how much of it is the value of volunteer labor.
huffkw,
The church is spreading throughout the world–so much so that it’s beginning to look like Nephi’s prophecy in 1Ne 14. I think it’s also important to note that the same prophecy shows the church spreading throughout a *wicked* world:
12 And it came to pass that I beheld the church of the Lamb of God, and its numbers were few, because of the wickedness and abominations of the whore who sat upon many waters; nevertheless, I beheld that the church of the Lamb, who were the saints of God, were also upon all the face of the earth; and their dominions upon the face of the earth were small, because of the wickedness of the great whore whom I saw.
13 And it came to pass that I beheld that the great mother of abominations did gather together multitudes upon the face of all the earth, among all the nations of the Gentiles, to fight against the Lamb of God.
14 And it came to pass that I, Nephi, beheld the power of the Lamb of God, that it descended upon the saints of the church of the Lamb, and upon the covenant people of the Lord, who were scattered upon all the face of the earth; and they were armed with righteousness and with the power of God in great glory.
Dave, IMO the absolute worst thing the church does is keep the Q15 from hearing what they don’t want to hear.
Since there is NO mechanism for rank and file members to reach the Q15 or even Area Presidents, it shows that they have zero interest in the concerns of members as long as they can continue to get away with the gaslighting and protecting the organization over protecting members.
I continue to write letters which I send to the First Presidency. Not only do I not receive a response, I don’t even receive acknowledgment that they received it. Expect to hear from SCMC any day now.
“Intelligence agencies provide bad information because they are staffed and directed by less competent loyalists rather than nonpartisan experts.
Good intelligence is provided, but ignored by decision makers.”
Dave B: I thought you were talking about Mormon leadership the first time I read those statements, because it is a STUNNING summary of what seems to be happening in both LDS leadership AND Trump’s government!
One difference is that LDS leadership claims to speak for God and to have spiritual discernment. Thus we not only have an abuse of government power, but we have spiritual and ecclesiastical abuse as well. It makes me very very sad!
Making a list of bad decisions and failed prophecies would require a book. Lavina Fielding Anderson’s book is a start.
I think the core difference is that Trump ignores the laws, policies & procedures that he doesn’t like. Church leaders don’t have to ignore them because it’s completely top down. Once the guy in the biggest red chair has spoken, everyone MUST get in line and shut up about any dissenting views. That’s similar in result, perhaps, but different in what it does to the followers. In both cases, Dear Leader gets everything he wants. In the case of the Church, that’s a feature. In Trump’s case, it’s a bug and at least so far is not how leaders have operated.
There will be case studies after Trump that will dissect how much of this sh*tshow was his own thinking vs. how much was people like Stephen Miller whispering Sith-like into his ear with their racist, hate-filled fear-mongering. I suspect the real GOP operators are able to tell Trump just enough of what he already believes to amp up his worst impulses (for many of his impulses, he’s already pre-amped so it’s not required). But most of the GOP politicians understand that they can’t afford (literally afford, with money) to cross Trump. Likewise with many institutions and CEOs. Some are supporting things they were against minutes ago because they want to benefit financially, and others do it to avoid financial loss and ostracism.
Of course, the crazy thing is that if Trump today said that churches are stealing from taxpayers and should be taxed to fill his coffers, a whole lot of his followers would be OK with that. If he said we fixed immigration and declared amnesty for the remaining immigrants claiming he got rid of all the bad ones, his followers would celebrate that. If he said Medicaid for all, they would cheer him in the streets. He doesn’t do those things, not because of his followers, just because he doesn’t care about any of those things. He only cares about enriching himself and his family, and he doesn’t see how all of those things would benefit him.
There are many ways to make bad decisions. A way to make good decisions is described in our Doctrine and Covenants–
“No power or influence [or decision?] can or ought to be maintained by virtue of the priesthood [including church position in the hierarchy?], only by persuasion, by long-suffering, by gentleness and meekness, and by love unfeigned; by kindness, and pure knowledge, which shall greatly enlarge the soul without hypocrisy, and without guile.”
I see this as the Lord’s model for priesthood leadership in our church. I cannot discern that position, rank, and status have anything to do with it. I see command, compulsion, or control as tools of the secular world, not the Lord’s church. Others may see things differently.
Trump’s decision-making in Iran has been so bad that it threatens to completely upend the world order as we know it. Diplomacy had been working with Iran. Obama’s deal was working great. We were on the road to rapprochement and lasting peace. Iranophobia on the US and Israeli right with this dogged belief that Iran could never be trusted and that only violence could somehow be the answer got us into this war.
As for LDS leadership, I actually think they’ve been making very good decisions when it comes to their own bottom line. Growth in religion and religiosity in general has hit a ceiling around the world. High birthrates have long been an advantage that conservative religious groups around the world have had, but birthrates are in decline now and show little signs of reversal. Given those circumstances I think that the LDS leaders have performed remarkably well. From a financial standpoint, the church is so well off it literally doesn’t need tithing money to meet its operational expenses. The mission program is still remarkably reliable at creating new local leadership classes to continue to lead the church at all levels. Church activity is predictable and replete with community and friendship experiences. BYU seems to still be flourishing. I don’t see an Iran war equivalent here. Now, as for whether the LDS leadership is doing things that liberal Mormons want? No, they’ve mostly failed in that regard. But I think that giving in too much to the interests of liberal Mormons actually runs greater risk of decline than holding to a conservative traditional approach.
Brad D has it right. As far as their own *bottom line* goes, the church leaders are making great choices. The church is in really good financial shape.
Now, as far as making the right choices as far as God goes, I am not so sure. Of course, I really cannot speak for God, but I just cannot see Jesus cheating and getting in trouble with SEC. Good financial move, but unethical and illegal. I can’t see Jesus telling poor members to pay tithing before feeding their children. Or praising a father who chooses to work far away from his children to earn enough to be sealed as a family, I mean he gave up a real relationship with them to have some religious words said to have an eternal relationship with children he doesn’t even know? Just seems like the priorities are backwards. Instead of protecting children from abuse, they protect the abuser’s right to confess his sin without facing any consequences of his sin. Instead of using tithing money to feed the poor, as it is supposed to be used for, they ask members to donate even more money on top of tithing to a humanitarian fund and fast offerings to feed the poor and they hoard money much more than they need to run the church and build temples.
Are they really doing what Jesus would do, or are they just getting the church rich?
Dave W said, “Stories that are sufficiently faith promoting do reach them.”
This process is actually specifically built into the bubble. Ward and stake historians write histories that are submitted to the Church. These histories are supposed to include faith promoting stories and experiences. Missionaries then go through the histories to index those stories by subject. That index is available to general authorities looking for stories to use in their talks.
Source: Training I was given as a ward historian
The church leadership echo chamber is real. Some of this is endemic to large organizations; I see similar effects in my work. When decision making is highly centralized, access to them is limited, and they must focus on only the highest priorities. The church’s leadership structure and succession scheme creates a very gerontocratic group at the top, which I think has weaknesses they don’t like to acknowledge, but it also does tend to select for competence.
I think decisions about finances are an interesting case study. Starting during the McKay presidency, they got ahead of themselves with the construction program and into too much debt. Bad decision. They brought Eldon Tanner into the first presidency and he imposed fiscal discipline. Good decision. They were embarrassed by the debt problems and reduced the transparency of financial reports. Bad decision. They kept on the austerity program for a while until they straightened things out. Good decision. They slowly built a sizable reserve fund. Non-decision, just keeping the status quo going. Someone noticed the fund had got big and the members might notice they were rich, and given the multi-decade culture of less transparency decided to pursue dubious and ultimately illegal means to conceal it. Bad decision. Wealth kept growing and nobody has questioned whether to change course. That also looks like a non-decision that has now become a problem. I don’t believe they are actually motivated by getting absurdly wealthy, they just didn’t want to think about the reserve fund, and haven’t shown an willingness to consider whether it’s time for a course change when circumstances change. On balance, I’d say the decision making on finances is a mixed bag. Measured by the bottom line, things look great. Measured by whether decisions are leading to outcomes consistent with their values, not always.
What compounds all the bad decisions the church has made is their policy of never apologizing to the people they’ve hurt. That might be the worst decision of them all.
Quentin I think you are right in the way you describe the development of the financial situation. It’s become a problem that could have been avoided with with honesty and transparency. I believe the problem could be solved the same way.
The comment that struck me most was DaveW’s SP claiming to be walled off from his AP.
That makes no sense to me and I wonder what the SP means by it. My SP told me they have quarterly meetings with the AP. So that’s quarterly live in-person access to the AP. Also, I would imagine that the AP communicates these meetings via email which would be another avenue to communicate with the AP, but anything is possible and I guess maybe the AP sends the SP’s meeting messages that self-destruct after they are listened to.
It sounds like either the SP doesn’t want to be held accountable that he DOES have access to the AP or the SP doesn’t feel this is a legitimate two-way communication channel based on the way the AP communicates to the SPs. I’m guessing the latter but admit I have no clue.
Hawkgrrrl’s comment paragraph 2 sums it up. Trump wanted peace when he was focused on a trophy. Trump wants war when he wants to grift. Peace isn’t as profitable as war.
And. Some of y’all voted for this.
Chadwick: The situation, as I understood it, is that the meetings with the AP and SPs function like so many others in the church: direction flows from top to bottom, nothing flows back. I live in Utah, and the church’s website lists 640 stakes in the state. (I’m not 100% certain that the state boundaries and the area boundaries are the same, but this is close enough.) And it makes sense that the Area Presidency can only have a certain amount of direct contact with all 640 stake presidents. I’m not sure that their meetings even happen in person. My stake president told me that anything he communicates back to the AP goes through area authorities.
The context of this discussion I had with him was the change to church policy that trans people can only attend meetings for the gender they were assigned at birth. Church policy states that any exception must be approved by the Area Presidency. My SP told me that the AP had communicated that there would be no exceptions given, and that he could not directly contact them for any sort of discussion.
This could be an attempt by my SP to close the topic. It could be an attempt by my SP to absolve himself of any responsibility. (He can’t change the policy and can’t even talk to the people who could give an exception.) It could be a way of admitting that while he can technically communicate with the AP, there’s no chance of it changing anything anyway. (Tree falling in the woods . . .)
It’s almost like they got together and tried to design the suckiest management system they could.