With a new Prophet/President of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints, it might be a good time to revisit what changes might be coming in the next 5-10 years in the Church. Below are some thoughts I have, and some predictions.
We could have three new Prophets over the next five years. According to actuary tables, there is only a 50% chance a 92-93 year old man in “good” health will be alive in five years. Oaks is 93, and Erying is 92. Neither are in “good” health. Oaks needs help walking, and Erying is in a wheel chair. Next in line is Holland, who is on full time dialysis. My prediction is Uchtdorf is Prophet in five years.
I predict that within the next ten years, garments will only be required for the Temple, and will be optional at all other times. They will then turn into a form of virtue signaling for the boomers that still wear them 24/7, yet the younger generation just won’t care and ditch them.
I predict with low probability that the Word of Wisdom will be reinterpreted (yet again) to allow coffee and tea. During my lifetime it has changed. While a youth in Central California in the 1970’s, we had a bishop that denied temple recommends if you drank Coke/Pepsi. It is now sold at BYU. Big change. But I think it would be too big of step to allow coffee/tea, and it is such a defining characteristic of being Mormon. Maybe just allowing tea as a first step?
I don’t see Sunday worship services getting any shorter. Two hours will stay the norm.
I predict with high confidence that missions for the youth (18 and older) will be selective, with 12 month, 18 month, and 24 month options for everybody, and not just 5-star athletes at BYU. Also I predict that they will be able to select a proselyting or service mission without any negative connotations [1] . To make the shorter time work, you will forgo learning a foreign langue if you select the 12 month mission. I think this is actual increase the number of missionaries, with some who couldn’t take off two years, will now go for a year.
In the next ten years, the Church will stop doing legal weddings in Temples in counties that still allow it (US being the largest). Civil weddings will be the requirement (like in England, France, and most of Latin America), and then at a later date the couple gets “sealed” only in a temple. Oaks won’t allow this, but Uchtdorf will, as that is the law in Germany, and most of Europe.
What are your thoughts on my predictions. Do you agree, or I’m I way off base?
What predictions did I miss for changes to come?
[1] currently, when a missionary can’t do a proselyting mission due to physical or mental issues, that are sent on a service mission. It is sometimes seen as a “less than” mission. That would go away, and the Church could have 1000’s of service missionaries building clean water projects in developing counties. A win for Church PR!
Wheat & Tares 
@BB Super curious why you think with high degree of confidence there will be 12, 18, and 24 month options for missions. While very logical, it seems like the church regarded the 18- month mission experiment 30 years ago as a failure, so I am wondering what inside information gives you high confidence?
I can’t see most of these changes happening unless/until Uchtdorf becomes president. A change to proselyting and service mission being considered equal seems like something that would be right up Uchtdorf’s alley.
I would also predict that under Uchtdorf there will be revitalization of some of the programs that RMN trashed. Not necessarily church pageants, but maybe implementation of a real youth program that is mostly co-ed and has a strong service component, regional festivals, and more ward-level social programs without requiring a priesthood purpose. Maybe bringing back the I’m a Mormon campaign. I would call it the making Mormonism fun again era after the dull grey years of TSM and RMN.
Whether or not the Q15 makes garments optional outside of the temple, from what I see of the members I know outside of Utah (but not inside of Utah), wearing garments for endowed members is definitely moving toward optional. And from on personal experience, once that happens, wearing garments other than for ceremonial purposes just stops making sense.
I could also see there being a dropping of the strict geography requirement for members to attend a specific ward and stake.
What I wish I could say with any confidence is that after DHO, we would see and end to the relentless persecution of LGBTQ individuals in the church. That has been DHO’s hobby horse for so long, I fear his hatred of anything queer has permanently infected the Q15.
My predictions:
1. Within 5 years young women will be able to pass and prepare the sacrament as they could in the early years of the church.
2. Within 10 years adult women will be able to do many callings that were previously for men only.
3. Within 15 years queer members of the church will be permitted to have callings and maintain their church membership.
How about a prediction that if there are four presidents within five years (Oaks, Eyring, Holland, then Uchtdorf), it will become painfully obvious to even mainstream members that lifetime appointments for apostles just doesn’t make sense anymore. So retirement at 75 for the apostles, just like we have had retirement at 70 in place for other GAs — which has worked pretty well, hasn’t it? If the FP and the Twelve looked more like the Seventies and less like the TV room at your local memory care unit, the Church and the membership (and the retired apostles themselves!) would all be better off.
My predictions
1. Within 10 years women will be wearing pants to church.
2. Within 7 years there will be a female sitting with the Bishop’s when meeting with members for guidance. She will be able to give a women’s perspective on the subject, not just sitting in silence.
3. Within 15 years no time limit on missions served.
4. Within 10 years, our LGBTQ will not be excommunicated for same sex marriages.
5. Within 15 years the church will re-do the recovery manuals with a language that is inclusive to all people instead of just LDS people in recovery.
Brenda, I have worn pants to church for 15 years. I even wore them to the temple. No comments; no problems.
The 12, 18, and 24 month options for missions makes sense with the addition of 55 new missions world wide, Also an in crease in servise missions makes sense since 41 of the 55 new missions are in so called 3rd world countries.
After 70 years in the church, I predict that less will change than ya’ll are predicting.
Oh, I mean, I hope some of these optimistic changes happen, but change has been much slower than us progressives wish.
Provided President Oaks stays in good health, I see a refocus of missionary work towards quality of conversion instead of number of converts. I believe his experience serving in the Philippines will reorient the mission department away from purely being focused on numbers. This would be greatly appreciated in wards where we’ve had a ton (upwards of 50) baptisms in the last year and no more then 2-3 staying active following their baptism.
We are a slowly changing people. It’s been 100 years since we changed garments from to ankle and wrist to short sleeves. 100 years to eliminate the sleeve. That is slow.
I hope Uchtdorf lives and is healthy and becomes a president long enough to make a difference. But he is 84 years old right now. There’s just no knowing
I predict that as society goes, the church will go. If society becomes more conservative, Christian National, Evangelical, and intolerant of Diversity, equity, and inclusiveness, the church will walk right along with society.
I like what others have predicted about women, new leaders, the word of wisdom, and being more progressive, but that won’t happen unless there is a change in how our society reacts to more progressive ideas now.
The only thing I’d like to see is a change in how the next prophet is chosen. Where it’s not the most senior apostle but someone who, after a lot of discussion, is chosen by the 12 to lead because of their unique qualifications. I’m sure the Lord is capable of working in a manner like this than he can work in “calling” a prophet 40-50 years before his actual calling when he is called to be an apostle.
Polygamy?
I have similar thoughts as Anna. No material changes in the next several years. The most senior apostles don’t have the strength or energy to drive meaningful change even if they want to. If Uchtdorf makes it to the big chair he doesn’t have the cojones to wrestle with Bednar and Cook and other possible hardliners. I still can’t get over him approving the church investment scheme.
If we’re lucky Oaks will half heartedly warn the saints about the dangers of authoritarianism but won’t mention anyone by name.
I predict that number of members will continue to decline but those that remain will be high ortho-praxiy with lots of virtue signaling. The church will continue to coin money and continue to not use it to relieve the suffering of the poor and disenfranchised.
Never underestimate the power of tradition. I predict that most of these predictions will not come to pass in the times allotted. At most we’ll see an expansion in the type of missions, especially for seniors. The pressure will continue to be very high in young men to serve 2-year proselytizing missions.
I see little changing postively unless Uchtdorf is president. I hope I am proven wrong.
Can someone help me understand why so many think Uchtdorf would move in a more progressive direction? Not sure I see that embedded in his conference talks.
1. Tithing requirements will move to a sliding scale. Incomes of <$50K = 5%; $50K to $150K = 10%. Social Security and retirement income will not be tithed. There will be a lifetime max of $250K after which zero tithing is required.
2. The Church will accelerate the movement of their investment portfolio to real estate. This avoids such messy requirements as obeying SEC reporting laws. Real estate strategies will include investments in Mormon tourist destinations (as in the Polynesian Cultural Center). Perhaps a Nephi Land adjacent to the Hill Cumorah.
3. Women will be allowed to receive the Aaronic Priesthood.
4. Temple Recommend requirements will be eased. No WoW, underwear or abject obedience questions. Nuanced doubters will be welcome. If they build them, we must use them.
5. A new BYU Missouri campus will be built in Jackson County.
6. Senior missions will offer more meaningful opportunities to serve communities – using skills acquired during a lifetime of work. The old trope of Member Support will die a quick death.
I wear pants to church all the time. I teach my RS lesson in them. Did it yesterday. Nobody says a word.
Why the nasty dig at garments and people that wear them? Mine mean something to me so yes, I will continue to wear them even if they become optional. I don’t give a rats a$$ whether you do or not and I sure as hell don’t care if you notice. Quit assuming that those of us who do something you don’t want to do are showing off.
I believe that core doctrines (Jesus Christ, temple ordinances, Book of Mormon, priesthood) will remain intact, but interpretation, practice, and cultural emphasis will gradually evolve. Mormonism evolves slowly, and yes it will involve the extinction of some dinosaurs.
The next five years will see increased historical transparency. New essays and publications will further contextualize various church controversies, building momentum for interpretive scriptural and historical study. I think we will then (8-10 years from now) see sermons and manuals actually emphasizing symbolic readings and further developing the concept of living or continuing revelation. Members will by that point will have become accustomed to nuanced historical and scriptural discussions. This will make social change and change in practice more likely. I think Ben Spackman and some of the younger scholars will pave the way for these types of developments. It will be gradual because there will be push back from hardliners, but we will see increased leadership from younger GAs and college-educated women. I predict it will be painfully slow to watch, but I do trust the younger crowd more than many. I predict that about a decade from now we will see the development of a neo-orthodoxy which will embrace environmental stewardship, serving the poor and some sort of tithing reform. But that is at least a decade or so down the road.
I disagree on garments. Now and in the future they will become even more important.
We have in our own church members, so many being tricked by Satan and joining his army with Trump and Republicans. For those of us carrying fuller light within ourselves it allows us to decipher facts, truths and reality itself. It’s clear to see where the darkness of hate and the light of compassion are.
Garments help protect us against the evils of Satan as he continues to gain strength.
I only made the polygamy comment because D&C 132 still exists in the canon.
PIMO five years now and not looking back…
Can Bill put a reminder in his phone to dig this up in 5 years to assess everyone’s predictions?
I think it’s more likely that none of these significant changes happen than that even one of them does. To address them specifically:
President Uchtdorf: probably
Temple only garments: nope
Coffee & Tea ok: nope
Still 2 hr church: yes
Shorter missions: not far fetched
No more temple weddings: nope
Ordained women: nope
SSM ok: nope
Tiered tithing: nope (The church would have to provide guidance for every country with members? Even in the US $50k in OK is not at all the same as $50k in CA. Even 50k in New York City is dramatically different than 50k in Buffalo.)
But so as to not just poke at other’s predictions without proffering any of my own:
1. Fewer than 30 temples announced in the next 5 years. (151 were announced in the last 5 years)
2. Formal YM/YW activity achievement program announced – something similar to what personal progress was.
3. Fam Proc not canonized, but still so many GC talks about it, and religious freedom.
4. Black apostle. (Feels like an easy prediction, could happen any day, but also, might only get 2 or 3 bites at that apple in the next 5 years.)
A significant change on the horizon is reimagining how congregations meet and are lead. Already it is common for branches to be lead by members of the stake and this is often the best way for a branch to have constructive leadership. If finding competent leadership becomes a greater struggle, including wards, I could see the church becoming creative in how leadership is assigned. I would especially like the church to step up efforts to train leadership.
Similarly, demographic variations already require wards and branches to combine to have youth organizations. Why not standardize this and have more organizations cross congregational boundaries? And then the big question: What is the purpose of congregational boundaries? Historically, these boundaries are considered as decreed by God himself. But flexibility is needed and maybe we will see greater flexibility so members attend the congregation that best serves their needs (whether it be time, location or community).
As for ideas already shared, I think more flexible missions will happen. As for doctrinal changes, I think we will see clarity that endowed women have equal claim on the power of God. I still hesitate to project how this doctrine will be applied to the administration of priesthood ordinances. The social / culture problem is that many men, if give a reason to step back and let women take charge, will step back. And the church needs more of men and not less!!
Within 10 years, there will be no ecclesiastical punishment for same-sex married couples, and they will be allowed to hold callings and take the sacrament. No same-sex temple dealings, however. That will always be a bridge too far.
A Disciple,
“…I would especially like the church to step up efforts to train leadership…”
I agree. But we must be careful what we ask for, because we might get it. Who will do the training, and who will develop the curriculum? Sometimes, a proferred medicine might be worse than the malady. I do not have much experience in seeing meaningful and effective training within the church, as most church training checks boxes but avoids real engagement. If others have better experiences, I am glad.
”…What is the purpose of congregational boundaries? Historically, these boundaries are considered as decreed by God himself…”
Good question! I agree that ward boundaries are not decreed by God himself, and are actually not required for church administration. When members need the ordinance of the sacrament, they can seek out a priest of the Aaronic priesthood (bishops are president of the priests quorum in a local area) — and that priest will offer the sacrament to everyone who shows up. When a member seeks a meaningful activity program for their children, they can go to whatever bishop is providing a meaningful program that will meet their needs. We use rigid boundaries because of our current perceived social need for control and punitive discipline, but it is an interesting thought exercise to consider satisfying the essential parts of control and discipline without rigid ward boundaries.
Short on time. Need to be succinct.
Garments: Still expected to wear at all times, but more styles available that are more accommodating to regular clothes. E.g short leg versions of bottoms, multiple tank top styles, maybe dark fabric options, etc.
Uchtdorf as pres: Odds favor this.
Missions: More service missions (free labor for the church), reduced stigma over service missions.
Politics: the shadow of Benson continues to wane.
Same sex couples: No temple marriage yet but excommunications are quietly phased out
Black apostle: 50/50
Strict WoW requirements removed from temple question: 30%
After Uchtdorf passes and Bednar takes the reins: Most “progressive” changes are undone, mass decline in membership activity, church becomes more hardline and insular.
> Same sex couples: No temple marriage yet
Unpopular opinion time: I keep seeing this “yet” popping up, as if it’s inevitable. The law of chastity is straightforward as written and covenanted to. If an endowed member is in a SSR, they have, indeed, broken said law. I do not see that going anywhere. If that continues to lead to membership restrictions or removal, I think those will be one much quieter, and without as much fanfare.
On the PxMx spectrum, I wonder if we’ve seen the crest of the PIMO. I think the next few years simply by attrition, a larger part of that group will choose out of PI. I think it will be harder to stay in.
The ultra-convservatives have always had a hard time separating building zion from nationalism (Zion !=US). My hope, and the trend I feel we’ll see is an acceptance of congregants who aren’t members (see above), or who are figuring out where they are on that spectrum, I think that will be the next generations of “ashtrays in the foyer”.
1. The Church will need to dip into its multi-billion dollar war chest as revenue from tithes and offerings plummet due to an impending economic collapse. They might even have to bail out the state of Utah.
2. The Church will have to dip into said reserves to pay taxes as Trump’s IRS revokes tax-exempt status to churches who are not “MAGA enough.” Or, they will mount a very expensive legal campaign to fight this move. Less likely: the Church will simply comply by becoming more overly MAGA.
3. In the short term, Bishop’s will be instructed to limit items per family on food orders due increased demand that will be coming with the destruction of SNAP.
4. IF the Church adds 1000s of service missionaries and humanitarian mission (which I hope they will but doubt it), they may no longer feel the need to constantly remind everyone that “we’re Christian, we promise,” because, you know, actions speak louder than words.
I think many of the ideas discussed here will happen, but they will all take longer than we think.
Lily, no nasty dig at garments. I predicted “in the future” that when garments are only required for the temple, that it will become (not today) a source for virtue signaling for those that chose to wear them 24/7. BTW, I wear them most days. And from history (I’m old), when they changed to the two piece garments in the 1970’s, I heard more than on old timer signal that they would continue to wear the once piece as a sign of their temple covenants. If this happened going from one to two pieces, I’m sure it will happen again when garments are optional during the week. No dig intended.
Of all the mystical Carnacs here, I think Trevor H. is most on-target.
Here’s my sense:
Ordain women- NO
LGBT pain points- CONTINUE (sadly)
Temple Building- WRAPS UP
Outpouring of Oaks’ LDS Bureaucratic/admin principles we never knew we were missing-PRIORITIZED
Temporary slight increase of US-based food distribution (in light of gov’t shut-down)–LIKELY
Increase in “self-sufficiency” rhetoric–EXTREMELY LIKELY
Increase in “feed the poor” rhetoric—EXTREMELY LIKELY
Wishy-washy weak hand-slap to authoritarianism– IF WE ARE LUCKY
Dear leader takes a tour of the SL Temple- PROBABLE
Spike, bump or blip in baptisms from opening up the SL Temple for tours- NO
Here’s my list of “I should live so long” or “when snakes wear suspenders” (things I WISH could happen by haven’t got a snowball’s chance in heck).
1) We stop building brutalist-style temples with giant negative ecological footprints and start creating Zen/Shinto/Buddhist-like outdoor dedicated “temple” gardens that beautifully, privately and peacefully function in the same exact way.
2) We NAME the anti-democratic threat. We warn the people away from White Christian nationalism, authoritarianism, fascism, cruelty, alternative facts, harm to children, women and young women, etc. Just as we were told to use the NAME of the church, we similarly NAME its threats too, including Donald J. Trump, Orban, Erdogan, Netanyahu, Blsonaro, Putin, MAGA, Q Anon, etc.
3) If our economy falls and we enter a second great depression (a new and unprecedented “Mega-Depression”) fueled by mass tech displacement (AI and automation), political paralysis and a country divided, and potentially global supply and resource shocks from tariffs, climate-driven crop failures, etc. we could always dust off the ol’ United Order. Just saying.
4) We set a moon-shot goal to lift all LDS primary children out of malnutrition and food scarcity in 2 years (in a massive Sweetwater rescue) and simultaneously stop world-wide childhood hunger by partnering and pulling down a few miracles. The first step is recognizing the problem, caring deeply enough to make this priority #1, and believing we were always meant to change it.