A few weeks ago, Elder Rasband gave a talk at the Missionary Training Center (MTC) to about 900 new missionaries. He spoke of six false narratives that we hear about the Church, and then tried (weakly IMHO) to debunk them. From the Church newsroom write up:
False narrative 1: The rising generation has less faith in Jesus Christ than previous generations.
Contrary to that narrative, more missionaries are serving Jesus Christ now than have in many years, Elder Rasband said. “Your generation is not less faithful; no, you have as much faith in Jesus Christ as any previous generation.”
No real evidence or numbers are given. He knows the exact numbers. What number does “many years” reference? By looking at the numbers, last year there was 74,000 missionaries. This is more that the COVID low of 52,000 in 2020, so if “five = many” then he is correct. But it is lower that the all time high of 85,000 in 2014. So maybe the rising generation is less faithful?
False narrative 2: The Church is declining as interest in organized religion decreases.
The last 12 months saw the largest number of convert baptisms in any 12-month period in this dispensation, said Elder Rasband. “It is a remarkable time to serve.” He added: “The future is bright, elders and sisters. And you are at the center of it.”
By pure numbers this is correct, but as a percentage of growth, it is about 1.5%, off from the 6% growth rate of the early 1990s. It hasn’t been above 2% since 2013. There is an increase from the COVID low, but overall the trend is downward from 1990s. If the current trend continues it will be under 1% growth in a few years. Then they will only talk about pure numbers of converts, that could still be the highest ever, yet represent a complete downturn on Church growth.
False narrative 3: Baptisms are increasing in some regions of the world but not in others.
The number of God’s children being baptized is “increasing in every region of the world,” Elder Rasband said. He added that the region with the highest percent growth in baptisms in 2025 was Europe.
No matter where a missionary is called, “you can have faith that the Lord is hastening His work in your area,” he encouraged. “His miracles are filling the whole earth.”
Here he uses statistics as a drunken man uses a lamppost-for support rather than illumination.(Andrew Lang quote) If Rasband wanted to illuminate (which he does not), he would have given numbers. “Increase in every region in the world”? So, again the lean COVID years supply the crutch that he can use, and he provides no time period for comparison. Yes, every region of the world has increased from 2020. And Europe has such low numbers that just a few more would be a big statistical increase. Just to throw out some made up numbers, if there was 100 baptisms in all of Europe during 2020, and there was 200 baptisms last year, that would be a 100% increase, and be the highest percentage in the whole world, yet still represent dismal growth. Unlike number 2 where numbers were used to bolster his claims, in number 3 he used percentage, because looks better.
False narrative 4: New converts are not being retained.
“New members actively participate after baptism in ways that are as high, if not higher, than any previous year,” said Elder Rasband. By attending sacrament meeting, performing vicarious temple work and eventually making temple covenants, hundreds of thousands are acting in faith after baptism to follow the Savior.
Here he doesn’t even try. “Are as high”? What are the numbers? Is this one year retention rate? 3 years?
False narrative 5: More missionaries come home early than ever before.
An “overwhelming majority” of missionaries are completing their service to the Lord Jesus Christ. This includes teaching missionaries who, due to physical or emotional health, transfer to a service missionary assignment to finish their mission.
Elder Rasband also expressed gratitude for missionaries who complete their missions. He said, “Remember, the call from our prophet is to serve two years, for our elders, and 18 months, for our sisters. Thank you for your willingness to heed the prophet’s call.”
Here he completely gives up. The “overwhelming majority” can complete their mission, and we can still have the highest rate of missionaries returning early than every before. AI says “overwhelming majority” means 75% or more. So Rasband could be right, in that 75% of missionaries are completing their mission, but 25% (the most ever) are coming home early. When I was a missionary in the mid 1970s, I did not know one missionary in my mission in my whole two years that came home early. I didn’t know anybody from my ward, or stake that came home early. I would be willing to bet that every active member today know somebody that came home early.
“Giving a school man only a little, or very superficial, knowledge of statistics is like putting a razor in the hands of a baby.” (Carter Alexander)
False narrative 6: Missionaries are not good enough and can’t measure up.
To training missionaries who don’t feel good enough right now, Elder Rasband assured they are in good company. Many leaders throughout Church history have felt inadequate to do such an important work.
“With all the energy of my soul, I share this truth: You, every one of you, can do this,” he said. “I testify that the Lord has a work for each one of you to do. As you trust in Him, He will make more out of you than you could have ever imagined.”
He should have stopped on number 5.
What do you think of these “False Narratives”? What do you think of his rebuttals?
To close I’ll share some of my favorite quotes on statistics, in honor of Elder Rasband
“42.7 percent of all statistics are made up on the spot.”
-STEVEN WRIGHT
“Then there is the man who drowned crossing a stream with an average depth of six inches.”
-W. I. E. GATES
“I always find that statistics are hard to swallow and impossible to digest. The only one I can ever remember is that if all the people who go to sleep in church were laid end to end they would be a lot more comfortable.”
– MRS. MARTHA TAFT
“The average human has one breast and one testicle.”
-DES MACHALE
Wheat & Tares 
The leaders are all really hitting this message hard. It’s seems obvious it’s a coordinated campaign, they have all the same talking points. For me it is off putting, I just feel they are attempting to mislead. Even if their goal is good, to me it is just going to further erode trust.
I can only speak for my ward in the UK. We are having a lot of baptisms at the moment. Primarily immigrants and single men. It’s a diverse ward, and friendly, so I don’t think they feel out of place. Attendance on Sundays tends to be erratic, but there may be employment reasons for that. I know some converts no longer attend, but I don’t know what the retention rates are, and some may have moved away. We have two pairs of Elders, a pair of sisters and an older couple missionaries assigned to our ward at the moment. There was a baptism last week, and another this week.
There’s definitely been a change following Covid.
Anecdotally, my wife has a distant cousin living in the Midwest US who is a happily married Catholic man with four growing boys. His interest in organized religion has nothing to do with the Mormons. Ronald needs to give us some stats about the current public image of the Church.
If Bon Jovi or Dua Lipa join the Church, color me convinced.
I’m reminded of this quote (shared by a friend’s father): “Statistics are like a bikini. They reveal a lot, but what they conceal is vital.”
My ward has a ton of baptisms (mostly Spanish speaking immigrants) but very low retention
A relative of mine just went on to the mtc and likely heard this talk. I wonder what he (faithful tbm) thought.
When I entered the mtc Elder Eyring spoke to us. I still remember some of what he said. He hinted around a deeply spiritual experience and, like @Allie’s quote about bikinis, used what he didn’t say (because it was too spiritual and personal) more than what he did say to make his point. I think a lot of missionaries left that talk thinking that Eyring was personally visited by Jesus, specifically because that’s not what he said. Clever.
No one at the MTC expects to hear a statistical analysis of membership and activity rates, so Bednar’s decision to challenge rumors about statistics by not giving any statistics is not a great choice on his part. He should have stuck to faith-affirming stories. But the TBMs will hear what they want to hear. I know I would have, back when I was the MTC.
Science and secularism: eroding organized religions since the 1500s. The trend hasn’t stopped, it has accelerated. It has forced religions to abandon old positions, make a massive number of compromises, and lie more as we see in the above example. Atheism, agnosticism, loose cultural attachment to religion, and noneism is growing.
The church is no longer growing. It has stagnated. Future prediction: it is decline in numbers over the next 50 years.
I live in an area where developers are building housing as fast as they can. A new chapel was just completed about ten miles from us in another stake (a wealthier area). Our ward was split a few years ago and so many move ins have arrived that I don’t know most of the people that are newer. Our sacrament meetings fill the overflow and the cultural hall behind it. However, a good third to a half don’t stay for the second meeting. Baptisms that I am aware of are born in the covenant children. Just from appearances, you could argue our ward/stake is “growing”. There are two stake centers and five maybe six additional chapels in our town. No new chapels are planned.
Now about four hours drive away where my boomer parents live, they have a slightly different situation. The community has grown, but their ward was dissolved several years ago and the chapel they used to attend was torn down and the property sold to make more housing units for college students. My parents have changed ward buildings four times. The second chapel they attended was also torn down and the property sold. Chapels have not been rebuilt elsewhere. Supposedly their wards are so “nearly dead” they are being euthanized. I mean wouldn’t you think as more elderly folks pass on that their homes would be bought by younger people? Wouldn’t you keep a chapel in place for that reason? What really irks my parents is that each time their ward is reorganized, they have to drive further and further from home. Not only that, the chapels that were torn down were older, unique buildings that were built when ward members contributed to a building fund. These were modest but beloved structures that were sacrificed for.
I feel real numbers would be better. Why does the church build chapels in some areas and not in others? Is the church actually growing it is it shrinking? Why can’t the regular church members see the hard numbers?
We are adults after all.