Believing that you are good at something doesn’t automatically make you good at it. In fact, people who know the least about a topic are often the most likely to overestimate how much they actually know. It’s called the Dunning-Kruger effect. This was noticed by a college professor (named Dunning!), who had students who failed tests but thought they aced them. He then teamed up with a graduate student named Kruger, and they devised a study. The results were published in 1999, and the Dunning-Kruger effect was identified.

The effect is a cognitive bias, and occurs when a person isn’t aware of what they lack in terms of knowledge or skill. Without this deficit bothering them, they feel better about their abilities than they should. As Dunning said “We don’t know when we’re stepping into out little pool of stupidity”

This effect shows up not only in school, but work, home, and even church! I wondered how it manifests at church, particularly the LDS Church. I think it is more prevalent for us Mormons because we have a lay clergy. Mormons look at this as a feature, not a bug. Bishops who are not trained ministers are somehow looked at as superior to the ordained ministers of other faith traditions.

So you have a Mormon Bishop who has been set apart as the presiding High Priest and President of the Aaronic Priesthood for his ward. He has been given keys and priesthood power to preform this calling. He feels confident that the Lord has chosen him to lead the ward.

His first Sunday he must counsel with a ward member who is suffering clinical depression. Then a women who’s husband is abusive. Next week there is a newlywed couple who are having relationship issues. This Bishop has had no formal training in therapy, psychology, or family relationships. After a year or so into his calling, if you asked him how he rates himself a marriage counselor, I would bet the Dunning-Kruger effect would manifest itself with flying colors.

Now there are other factors influencing this bishop’s overconfidence. He believes he has the sprit of discernment (he doesn’t), that God is directing him on what to say (He isn’t), and that he has a successful marriage (probably doesn’t), so how hard can it be?

I saw this in other callings growing up in the Church, from inept scout masters and ill-informed seminary teachers. They were called of God, so they had the skills to do the job! Having never worked for the Church, I wonder if this effect is a prevalent in the Church Office Building as it is in other workplaces, or maybe more so? What about at the General Authority level where they are given assignments over committees or departments which they have no expertise, like maybe history or Public Relations. I understand for sometime now the leader of the history department is NOT a historian. The current Historian is a lawyer (surprised?)

What has been your experience in dealing with the Dunning-Kruger effect, either with yourself, or with those around you?

Have you seen this effect with your Church leaders with certain skills (or lack there of)