Where have all the crazies gone? By crazies, I mean devout traditionalists, and by gone I mean that according to Pew Research, they have dropped from 2/3 of Mormons to 1/4 in the last 20 years. What’s caused this shift in how people Mormon?

First, it wasn’t actually 2/3–it was 57% that self-reported in the “devout traditionalists” bucket. The shift is still dramatic (from 57% to 25%), and corresponds with a rise in all other groups but primarily in Adaptive Believers (from 20% to 42%) and Cultural Mormon (from 16% to 27%).

First, let’s try to understand what is meant by these terms.

Devout traditionalists. This group consists of orthodox members who are highly active and mostly politically conservative. They follow traditional social and political viewpoints and are more likely to favor the patriarchal, single bread-winner family model promoted in the Proclamation on the Family. For the most part, they are observant, attend church regularly, hold callings, pay tithing, and hold an active temple recommend. They align with the viewpoints espoused by Church leaders. They tend to be skeptical of secular social change. Most of us would probably use the term TBM for this group.

Adaptive Believers. They are more progressive and more flexible in how they interpret doctrine and practice in light of evolving social norms. They are more likely to accept and support LGBTQ people. They often hold more liberal or progressive political views than the Devout Traditionalists. They may hold non-literalist views on scripture, and they may selectively attend to counsel from leaders. They value personal conscience over deference to church leaders’ perspectives. We might call these Nuanced Believers.

Cultural Mormons. These folks self-identify as Mormons, but they participate on a social basis, not due to belief in the religious tenets or teachings. Many of them rarely attend Church, but still call themselves Mormons. We might call these PIMO if they attend or inactives if they don’t. This group actually looks like a symptom of a more mature religion, IMO. Consider how many people self-identify as Catholic but haven’t been to mass in over a decade.

In-Betweeners. These are church members who are either on their way out of the faith or are at least in a conflicted position of questioning their beliefs or their place in the Church. They are likely transitioning away from participating in the Church. They could be Elisa’s “quiet quitters” or they could be actively turning down callings, letting their temple recommend lapse indefinitely, and skipping meetings. These are probably also under the PIMO umbrella, but a specific subset. Realistically, they are probably truly ex-Mormons.

The data showed that the percent of Americans referring to themselves as LDS remained roughly the same (~2% of the US population), but within that group, their commitment level was shifting away from the rigidity of the Devout Traditionalists to a much more progressive and nuanced belief system.

There are a few factors one could consider that occurred during this timeframe:

  • Self-reporting. This could represent a shift in how people characterize their membership or devotion. Words change meaning over time. Do more members see it as desirable to be “less devout” according to these questions? In other words, are these results basically unchanged, but how people define the terms or see themselves is different?
  • Continued proliferation of internet. According to ex-Mo spaces, the more “accurate” information is readily available to the membership online, and the more online the membership is, the fewer true believers there will be. This is probably a trend across all sectors of life and one reason that institutional trust is at an all-time low and probably not improving any time soon. The secret things are being published from the rooftops, if the internet is a rooftop, and there is no way to spin gold out of some of this straw.
  • Social media. Doubters are not generally welcome in church (or at least their doubts are not) since church is supposed to build faith, not erode it, but there are many places online where doubters can connect and discuss their doubts. If church is primarily a community (of believers) it can very easily be replaced by a community (albeit online) of doubters or former believers.
  • Trump and political polarization. Whether you love him or hate him, Trump is a polarizing figure. For those who don’t like him or what he’s doing, there’s a moral component to their opposition. When you have a ward filled with people who are morally outraged, people who shrug off the outrage, and people who embrace what others see as immorality, you’re going to crack the ties that bind that community together. What LDS congregations look like post-Trump remains to be seen. Among other faiths, congregants have self-selected politically into like-minded groups.
  • Pandemic fallout. It’s hard to overstate just how devastating it was to religions when it was suddenly unsafe to attend in person and everyone breathed a collective sigh of relief at not having to go. Why did they feel relieved? Inertia is its own reward, and all community interactions come with social obligations that can be fraught or draining at times. Some may have felt that their efforts were futile or that attendance was pointless. Within Mormonism, there was also an issue with the sacrament only being available to married women combined with being told that it didn’t really matter. We were suddenly being told by leadership that church ordinances were irrelevant and unnecessary, confirming what many may have suspected, and also undermining the entire concept of church attendance.
  • LGBTQ Acceptance. There’s a pretty huge shift among members in terms of acceptance of homosexuality, rising from 24% in 2007 to 46% in 2023. That change corresponds with these figures. Given church leaders’ stance on LGBTQ issues, it also creates both exit ramps (particularly for families with LGBTQ children coming of age and coming out, forcing many parents to choose their child or their faith) and trust erosion among members whose personal views misalign with the retrograde views of much older generations who are setting church policies.

To me it seems like there are a few possible ways to view this shift:

  • The church is going to become much more flexible and progressive and less dogmatic and controlling. This could involve losing the right flank who could splinter off.
  • The church is going to shrink because it is really just designed for and by Devout Traditionalists.

For the first thing to happen, church leaders will have to figure out how to do this. The more progressive families and nuanced believers leave, the less likely the church will seek to be more open. There will be no need, “no demand for it” (as Carrie Jenkins falsely claimed about Coca-Cola at BYU.)

A new Oaks presidency, with fellow lawyer Christofferson by his side, doesn’t feel like we are heading into an era of tolerance and progress. For example, the church is so vehemently opposed to trans identities that the policy treats them as criminals in the congregation requiring an escort to use the wrong restroom, and the church has also submitted an amicus brief to bar trans people from protected status as a class which would help prevent discrimination. They sided with Justice Alito who thinks the real risk is religious conservatives being cast as bigots.

While that may be the church’s stance, will the members follow? Will they leave? Will they stay and push for change? Do they share these anti-trans views? Certainly a President Oaks, even in a diminished capacity, will maintain his track record of anti-LGBTQ advocacy, particularly in areas of policy and jurisprudence. Does the drop in people who see themselves as “devout traditionalists” indicate that they aren’t buying into these culture wars arguments as the trends seem to show?

There was an interesting follow up to this data (from the Mormon_Metrics substack) showing that the Devout Traditionalists are more common for church members living in Utah, and Cultural Mormon were more common outside of Utah. This is the opposite of the “expected” result based on the chatter I’ve always heard that would cast “converts” as the ones who are most devout, and those born into the religion as mostly socialized into it (Cultural Mormons). I even had a relative who, on her first experience living in Utah (Utah County even!) was so appalled at how people behaved she said “How do you deal with the complacency?” Apparently I dealt with it by being complacent because I honestly had no idea what she was talking about. Since the trend is showing the opposite of that assumption, maybe that socialization in church-centric Utah communities is actually creating more commitment. You don’t have to question your beliefs when they are commonly held. As Madge would say in the 1970s Palmolive commercial “You’re soaking in it!”

What do you make of this demographic shift? Are there other things you observe in this data (or in the Momon_Metrics substack data in general) that surprise you? Do you find any of these conclusions suspect?

  • Do you see the church becoming more progressive or smaller?
  • What do you think has driven these changes?
  • How have people you know changed over this time period in terms of their belief?

Discuss.