A lot of us are sitting around wondering what things would be like in a different timeline in which Harris had won, Trump’s assassination attempt had succeeded, Musk had not acquired Twitter, Congress had not won a Republican majority, etc. These are called “counterfactuals,” or hypothetical scenarios in which something different had happened. They are a staple of science fiction, movies, and other literary works. There’s even a Marvel series called “What If” that explores non-canonical versions of the stories from the movies. Or you may have seen the excellent Phillip K. Dick series The Man in the High Castle which explored what would have happened if the Allies lost World War II.
Some common historical counterfactuals (and there is an entire subReddit discussing these with actual historians):
- What if the Nazis had won WW2, or conversely, what if you killed baby Hitler? (There was also an excellent Star Trek episode about this, Patterns of Force).
- What if the South had won the Civil War? A version of this that’s had a bit of play more recently, because England outlawed slavery before the US, is what if the Colonies had lost the Revolutionary War (or reconciled without war)?
- What if Kennedy had survived the assassination?
- What if the Soviet Union had won the cold war? (I mean, it’s starting to look like maybe they just did).
- What if the Black Death had wiped out most of Europe? (As if a third wasn’t enough!)
I just finished two of Kate Atkinson’s novels that involve the concept of alternate timelines: Life After Life and A God in Ruins. In both novels, members of the Todd Family live their lives during the years between WW1 and WW2. Life After Life features daughter Ursula who has many potential outcomes in life depending on which impulses she follows, which lovers she takes, whether she dawdles or hurries home, whether the midwife rescues her at birth, whether she stays with friends in Germany or goes home, and so on. In A God in Ruins, her brother Teddy goes to war and we see the aftermath of World War 2 on him personally, the lives of his offspring, and his personality. These novels deal with both historical and personal counterfactuals.
Considering “personal” counterfactuals (ones relating to one’s own life) is not just for literature! It’s also a way to explore your own life, values, experiences, and choices. It can help you consider who you are really, and how you’ve been shaped by circumstance. Personal counterfactuals usually include things like those I mentioned from Kate Atkinson’s novels:
- What if I had chosen a different career?
- What if I had stayed in a past relationship?
- What if I had been born in or lived in a different country?
- What if I had taken a risk instead of playing it safe (or vice-versa)?
- What if I had been into a different family or into a different socio-economic status?
- What if I had been born a different race or sex?
There are also religious counterfactuals that are often discussed. A few that you may have heard before:
- What if Jesus had not been crucified? Would Christianity have spread without the concept of martyrdom or resurrection?
- What if Christianity had not been adopted by Constantine? Would Christianity have become widely adopted without Roman political acceptance and (eventual) enforcement?
- What if Islam had not spread beyond Arabia? Would the Middle East have remained Zoroastrian (h/t to Steven Peck’s excellent book A Short Stay in Hell). How would the world be different without Islamic influence on science, math, and empire-building?
- What if the Protestant Reformation never happened? Would there have been an alternate enlightenment? What would Britain’s religious path be if they remained Catholic? Would Catholicism have altered?
- What if Hinduism or Buddhism had overtaken Christianity in the West? For example, if Alexander the Great had embraced either Hinduism or Buddhism, this could have led to their proliferation in the Western world.
Which all inevitably brings us around to the Mormon Church. We can always speculate about how things might have been different, and we often have here on the blog. My favorite counterfactual post about the Church was talking about the Succession, and what we might have done if we had been there. But here are a few counterfactuals to consider:
- What if Joseph Smith had not been killed in 1844?
- What if the Saints had gone somewhere other than Utah? What if LDS people had remained in the Eastern US instead of going to the “wilderness” where they created their own government, cities, and colonies?
- What if the Church had never abandoned polygamy? Conversely, what if polygamy had never been introduced?
- What if the Church had prevented racism and sexism from entering its doctrines as some other branches of the movement did?
- What if Church leadership had an age limit, a different method of choosing leaders, or was more diverse?
- What if the membership were split more or less 50/50 ideologically and politically?
These are all just thought experiments, food for thought. For today’s post, I invite you to consider any or all of these counterfactuals or create your own?
- Do you think counterfactuals are useful? Why or why not?
- What are your favorite counterfactuals (historical, religious, personal, or related to the Church)?
Discuss.
Wheat & Tares 
I didn’t know there was a name for this – counterfactuals. I’ve always called this the “what ifs”. I’ve engaged in this thought process many times throughout my life, mostly in connection with my own life, not the world in general. It’s always been in the context that if *xyz had happened/not happened/different decisions were made, things would be *better than they are currently. Although I have often done this, it really hasn’t been productive. It doesn’t actually change the past, I don’t feel better about my current circumstances, and I’m just frustrated. I suppose the one positive could be learning from these experiences, but that doesn’t always apply to future situations.
As far as the church goes, it’s a bit challenging for me to imagine how things would be different if there were no sexism or racism as they’re still front and center. In the year 2024, women have less position/power/authority than they did 50 years ago, much less 150 years ago. If BY hadn’t been a racist, it wouldn’t have been a key point for over 100 years. Taking it further, trying to imagine the church without all the issues that have been deal breakers for me is impossible. It would be unrecognizable from its current form. In a perfect world, it would be incredible, but we’re not in a perfect world. The church is directly and indirectly responsible for much in my life and I haven’t yet fully moved past the anger. Without this church, my life would look very different (counterfactuals!). While I can’t know if it would be better or worse, I do know it would have been truer to my soul instead of being manipulated for decades. For a faith that emphasizes “agency”, very little is given. Yes, I’m still bitter.
Well, I do know that if I had been born female, my parents would likely have named me Megan. But, where that takes me in life?
familywomen, I definitely appreciate you addressing the element of continued bitterness. I cope with this too
Personal counterfactuals? In any job I’ve ever held, I’ve punished myself on bad days by saying, “Shoulda been a school teacher.” Other times, I feel pretty confident I wouldn’t have been a very good one, and its for the best I got pulled into live theatre for a couple tumultuous years after graduation. I may have dodged becoming a thoroughly average English teacher who fails to relate to his students and sucks at the programming element of thriving schools. But I’ll never know…
One of my favorite personal counterfactuals involves having been born into, or converting to, Roman Catholicism and becoming a Jesuit priest. The idea of living a contemplative life driven by vocation never ceases to be attractive to me, and I suspect there are agnostics within their ranks. But, considering how Jesuits earn their keep, this daydream proves to just be a highly developed variation on the shoulda-been-a-school-teacher refrain. Why do I punish myself? I mean we all have regrets and will leave this world with unfinished business.
Church counterfactuals? What would the Church have been like if Joseph hadn’t been assassinated? Well… I imagine it would have continued to be horribly managed and scandal-ridden. Probably a lot more Zion’s Camp-styled debacles, and a big question mark on if they ever make it to Utah territory. I often wonder what the Church would have been like if there hadn’t been a devastating civil war back East to keep the powerful of the nation occupied. Would a desire to fit in with evangelicals have suppressed it/watered it down sooner, the way they seem to be doing now?
Jake C: loved your contribution. As to your 1st personal what-if, it reminded me of the scene in The Good Place (TV series) where one of the demons in charge of hell says that he’s getting tired of torturing souls down there: “The first time you pull someone’s eye out with a hot poker [or some similar vivid image; I can’t remember the wording], it’s really exciting. But after a million souls, I start thinking, I might as well have been a teacher.”
Very thought provoking post!
Regarding JS assassination: I believe the Doctrine & Covenants says that the Civil War was a direct outcome for JS martyrdom. So an interesting thought experiment to consider.
I think another category we could add would be regarding Deity. For example:
I enjoyed The Man in the High Castle but when I first started watching it I had no idea it was science fiction. That caught me off guard. I was simply expecting an alternative history story.
When I was active LDS I used to fantasize that the early saints had continued on to California instead of Utah. Imagine that. Imagine that BYU, the MTC, and Church HQ was located in southern Cal. Utah certainly has its advantages and beauty but I think many of us (at least Dec – Mar) would have preferred the weather and beach out there.
The counterfactual that fascinated me growing up was what if God had chosen someone else to translate the gold plates. Now that I no longer believe there were gold plates, I wonder if there is any real element of any Restoration that God would have tried to accomplish if Joseph Smith wasn’t available. In the Restoration as it now stands, it is far too easy to see JS’s fingerprints on everything and increasingly difficult to see the hand of God in any of it.
So I guess the counterfactual that interests me now is what would happen if Joseph Smith had never been born. It’s a bit silly given that we wouldn’t be able to compare that timeline with this one, but if we somehow could, we’d be able to see what parts of the Restoration, if any, really came from God, and what parts, if any, weren’t just crap that Joseph Smith made up.
Also, a point of order: The Star Trek episode “Patterns of Force” is not a counterfactual about Nazis winning WWII. It is a lazy, underdeveloped story about a rogue Federation official using Nazi ideology and imagery on an alien planet to maintain order. It is generally considered one of the weaker Trek episodes and not at all terrific.
Sorry, I should have said “not at all excellent,” as it was called an excellent episode, not a terrific one.
Cultch fan: OK, fair point about Patterns of Force. Basically, the studio had a bunch of Nazi uniforms and it was a way to save costs–so many of those early Trek episodes were like that. You could literally see them combing through the wardrobes to come up with plots. However, the real issue is that I had this episode mixed up in my head with City on the Edge of Forever in which Kirk sacrifices his “true love” and pacifist Edith so that she won’t delay the US involvement in WW2 which results in Hitler developing the A-bomb first and winning. THAT’s the episode that is considered to be really great. I suppose it was a different counterfactual about WW2 whereas Patterns of Force was just a rogue historian playing fascist and breaking the Prime Directive.
I was listening to a Bart Ehrmann lecture recently in which he noted that the Mormon church’s growth pattern parallels the early Christian church’s growth rate, which I thought was interesting. He was saying this as a caution to evangelicals who consider Christianity “valid” due to its growth, but Mormonism “invalid.” He’s not a believer, just a scholar, and he was also explaining why the early Christian church caught on due to its successful narratives, most of which mimicked other cult movements of the time (a divinely appointed / sanctioned leader, virgin births indicating semi-deification, turning the humiliation of the crucifixion into a triumphal story). Sometimes you don’t need a counterfactual, just a good explanation.
I’ve got my own counterfactuals, mostly related to personal regrets. Funny thing, though, we seldom imagine counterfactuals in which the things we are glad happened didn’t happen.
I was in the Mormon subreddit discussing counterfactuals (didn’t know that was the term until this post) with a very orthodox person and they leaned into the idea that counterfactuals were pointless because everything that happens is exactly how the Lord intends it to happen–which for me is hugely problematic. I understand that it gave him a feeling of safety/certainty in his very privileged position, but it struck me that saying something that happened is exactly how something was intended to play out completely absolves someone from the responsibility to reflect on how it could have gone better. It almost completely absolves someone from actually needing to engage in a healthy way with the world because whatever you choose, no matter what you choose, that’s how it was pre-planned out and nothing would have changed. What If? is one of my favorite Marvel productions. I think it is fascinating how one change can snowball into massively different outcomes. Frankly, those kinds of reflections should humble us a bit. They should absolutely challenge any sense of certainty we have on the total rightness of our current course.
In the church, one what-if that I think would have major ripples is what if we still had the plates? The church would stand or fall on that one thing I think. Because they could be authenticated and in-so-doing, if they were real, could fundamentally shift the academic understanding of many things because we’d have real authentic evidence of a people and language heretofore undiscovered. But, oppositely, if they were made up, pretty much knocks everything else down. I personally find it suspect that God would purposefully take away the one single thing that would ensure his all important word be found authentic. God does seem to work against himself if you believe all the explanation of things.
Hawkgrrrl, now I see where you’re coming from. Yes, City on the Edge of Forever is frequently cited as not just the best episode of the original series, but the best episode of Trek in any series.
There are those moments in history where if something small has gone very differently it could have led to completely different consequences on a very large scale. I tend to think those moments are quite rare.
Counterfactuals, however, I find quite counterproductive at least in one’s personal life. We must adapt to new circumstances regularly throughout our lives. Resilience and adaptation are all we have. Make the most of what you see. Try to work with a direction in your mind if where things are going. Sometimes you’re right and it works out and sometimes you’re wrong and need to adjust in the future. Somethings, like COVID, are just plain unforeseen.
As for larger picture history/current events, there are so many variables as how things can go. But the study of history isn’t about that. It simply tries to see what happened and how. What’s fascinating about history, however, is that the what and how can change with new evidence or different perspectives.
Here are a few more Church-related counterfactuals that I think are interesting:
1. What if the Q15 over the last century were more diverse in their ideological and political viewpoints? (Similar to the membership as a whole mentioned in the OP, but given that the power of the Q15, this is an interesting, slightly different counterfactual.)
2. What if Bruce McConkie were replaced with an apostle who was his polar opposite in terms of theological beliefs and leadership tactics? Same question with Harold Lee, Joseph Fielding Smith, Mark Peterson, Boyd Packer, Dallin Oaks, Ezra Benson, David Bednar, etc.
3. What if the Family Proclamation hadn’t been released and/or the Church hadn’t supported Proposition 8? Would the Church have already embraced LGBTQ people without these 2 things? Do we have to wait for the leaders/members who lived through them to die before progress can be made on LGBTQ issues? Alternatively, what if the Family Proclamation had been canonized (maybe an ill-adivised attempt at this will be made if Oaks manages to become Church president)?
4. What if the Church had openly acknowledged and apologized for big mistakes (polygamy, racism, sexism, anti-LGBTQ) that have been made by past prophets and conceded that similar mistakes are bound to be made in the future?
5. What if the Church had acknowledged that the Book of Abraham was not a translation, and instead of inventing and embracing the “catalyst” theory, it decanonized and rejected it? Alternatively, what if the Church still insisted that the Book of Abraham is a literal translation in spite of all the evidence to the contrary?
6. What if we actually had the entirety of the scrolls that supposedly contained the text of the Book of Abraham?
7. What if Spencer Kimball had never declared that “all worthy young men” should serve a mission? Alternatively, what if he declared that “all worthy young men and young women” should serve a mission?
8. What if the Q15’s bar for receiving revelation was required to be higher? It seems clear that the bar has been pretty low on this since Joseph died. It appears that for many decades to the present, the Q15 feels comfortable issuing teachings, creating doctrine, and declaring policy if the 15 men talk over an issue, pray about it, and are able to agree on it. They will claim “still, small voice” types of experiences in this process, but the mistakes made over the years show that this is not a particularly reliable way of receiving direction for the Church. What if the Q15 had to exceed a higher bar than this in order to issue new doctrines/policies, especially ones that restrict or discriminate against certain types of people or removes the ability for members to make their own choices? I think there is very strong evidence that the Q15 certainly hasn’t exceeded this bar in at least the last 50 years, so another way of wording this counterfactual would be, what if the Q15 had been very careful to only teach the basic gospel of Christ and hadn’t issued any doctrines/policies over the last 50 years that discriminated against anyone or removed individual members’ ability to choose right and wrong for themselves? Yet another way to word this might be, what if the Q15 had just stayed out of the culture wars over the last 50 years, and generally allowed members to do what they felt was best?
9. What if Joseph Smith hated masonry instead of having been enthralled by it?
10. What if the 3 witnesses and/or 8 witnesses had been non-Mormon skeptics (none of whose last names were Whitmer!) instead of people who were very close to Joseph at the time?
11. What if the Relief Society had been allowed to continue as a women’s organization independent from priesthood supervision and control?
12. What if Joseph Smith had been born Josephina Smith, and Josephina had received/translated the Book of Mormon and gone on to create a religion where only women held the priesthood, and men had no power in the matriarchy?
13. How would Mormonism be different today if Mitt Romney had been elected president?
14. What if the Church didn’t generally excommunicate members who publish academic findings or express opinions in public forums that Church leaders don’t like (September 6, Fawn Brodie, Kate Kelly, John Dehlin, etc.)?
15. What if the Church punted on temple work for the dead to the Millennium and instead focused on making the world a better place for the “poor and afflicted” today?
16. What if mission presidents and their wives were required to live and work exactly the same way as young missionaries for 6 months before they actually started their term as mission president?
17. What if the Church disbanded (or never created) all the Church schools (the BYUs and whatever else there is) and used the money to support Mormon college students at whatever college they chose to attend (through scholarships, providing improved institute classes, etc.)?
What if Mitt Romney had become president in 2012? This question is interesting to me because I think it has implications for both the church and American politics.
For the church: they learn to exercise a lot more caution in making policy changes and become much more aware of how they are perceived by both the membership of the church and Americans generally. They have back channel conversations with Romney from time to time about how changes might affect his fortunes. The 2015 exclusion policy never happens. They pull back on efforts to excommunicate high profile Mormons perceived as dissidents, most notably John Dehlin, and the LDS church slowly comes to be perceived as relatively mainstream if still very conservative. They still don’t recognize gay marriage, but they did opt to change the handbook so that being in a same-sex marriage is no longer grounds for excommunication, which is regarded as an important, if small, step forward for the church toward better inclusion of LGBTQ members.
For the US: The economy is relatively good in 2016, so Romney defeats Hillary Clinton to win a second term relatively easily. After losing in 2012, Joe Biden retires from public office and doesn’t run again. Romney’s administration manages the early stages of the pandemic relatively capably, but the electorate is restless and frustrated over a lot of state and local pandemic-related policies in late 2020 and votes for the Democratic nominee, Elizabeth Warren, over Republican nominee Marco Rubio. Rubio opts to run again in 2024 and gets his party’s nomination, and this time he is able to win the general election as once again a restless electorate frustrated with the pandemic-induced inflation hangover opts to switch the presidency to a new party.
As a proud Obama voter, if only half of those things happened, I think I might trade them for an Obama loss in 2012.
One of my favorites shows is For All Mankind. And I do like some of What If.
I don’t know that Jesus existed. And I think the South, while they lost the battle, won the civil war. (see Civil Rights Cases, Plessy v Ferguson and the current government)
I quite liked Patterns of Force. Very apropos these days. A lesson about those who pursue governmental efficiency. As for modern Star Trek, when season 2 of Picard came out, some people gave it sh*t. And now, Holy sh*t, it’s prophetic. (and a shout out to the DS9 episode Past Tense)
I really don”t think Edith Keeler living would have resulted in anything bad (if you don’t count Kirk for a boyfriend), but fiction writers have to make false predictions.
If I could slingshot around the sun, I would tell Isaac Hale not to rent a room to Joseph Smith.
@ joshh
I live outside of SF. I think we need an “This was almost the place” monument to Sam Brannon here. Mormons were the movers and shakers in SF for a few years after the converted freight ship – the Brooklyn – arrived with a couple of hundred saints and animals. Longest religious voyage – maybe ever – from NYC around Cape Horn. First printing press in the city – brought on the ship – which is ironic given our history with printing presses. Amazing story – and a great counterfactual – that almost was.
re above comment (can’t see a way to edit a posted comment).
Just wanted to give a shoutout to Sam B. He really tried to keep BY and the wagons moving all the way to the ocean. I guess the lesson is that counterfactuals are fun to imagine but sometimes just plain hard to realize in the face of … stuff.
How about the counterfactual of if Romney has kept his powder dry in 2012, and instead of running against a highly popular president, had run against Hillary Clinton? I think in that scenario, Trump doesn’t win the 2016 nomination, Romney does, although it’s close. I suspect that the church might have been much more circumspect about putting out POX if they knew Romney was running the following year. If it is Romney that wins in 2016, Trump may or may not have tried to challenge, but in either case he loses. If Hillary wins in 2016, then Trump definitely wins the nomination and probably the presidency, but maybe not. And at the end of 2024 he has bungled up everything just like he did in his first term, but since he is starting in a difficult place (unlike what he inherited in 2016) , he leaves office thoroughly disgraced and we move on without a Jan 6th style riot.
In terms of Joseph Smith, I suspect if he doesn’t die at Carthage, he gets assassinated at sometime in the next two years. Polygamy and theocracy together was just a bridge too far in frontier America.
Wonderful post and comments! Cormac McCarthy offers an intriguing insight into “counterfactuals” (or What-ifs) in his novel Cities of the Plain: “All knowledge is a borrowing and every fact a debt. For each event is revealed to us only at the surrender of every alternate course.”
I think you would enjoy Carl Dennis’s poem “The God Who Loves You,” which you can read online at the Poetry Foundation.
https://www.poetryfoundation.org/poems/43386/the-god-who-loves-you
Hey ho!
https://wheatandtares.org/2022/04/22/guest-post-is-the-book-of-mormon-set-in-a-parallel-timeline/