Your currently believe some things that are not true. You also believe some things today that you will not believe in ten years and that you did not believe ten years ago. And if you think back to what you used to believe, you are very likely to remember having believed at that time what you believe today rather than what you actually believed then.

I just finished David McRaney’s book How Minds Change. David McRaney also wrote You are Not So Smart (and does an excellent podcast by the same name) and You Are Now Less Dumb (not quite as good as his first book, but still worth a read). His books explore why we believe what we believe, how we make mistakes in our beliefs, and in this latest book, introduces a method that works to change minds.

The smarter you are, the better you are at convincing yourself you are right. When Harris declined to go on Joe Rogan’s podcast, I felt that this was a big mistake because he has a huge audience and is very open-minded to his guests’ perspectives. This will end up being the James Comey mistake of the 2024 election IMO. But the one thing that gives me pause is that Joe Rogan is a conspiracy theory, and it’s very difficult to convince a conspiracy theorist they are wrong when you are just talking to them off the cuff. We tend to think of the people who believe things like conspiracy theories as gullible or stupid, but in reality, they have far more facts about these things than those of us who don’t believe in conspiracy theories do. A flat earther knows a lot more about flight paths and the horizon that I do, for example. They do not interpret those facts correctly, but I am not in a position to refute their facts one by one because I don’t know as much about it as they do. Much as I loved Harris, Pete Buttigieg would have been better if the goal was to convert Rogan’s beliefs. But if the goal was to show Harris as someone relatable and fun (the traits Rogan really likes), I think she would have done well.

The more intelligent you are, and the more educated, the more data at your disposal, the better you become at rationalizing and justifying your existing beliefs and attitudes, regardless of their accuracy or harmfulness.

People who know a lot of facts often mistakenly think that those facts are why they believe what they do. I’ve often seen people in ex-Mo Reddit query which facts they should use to de-convert their spouse so they are on the same page. Reading through the comments it looks somewhat clear that different people care differently about different things. For one person, it might be a deal-breaker when they discover that Joseph Smith practiced polygamy (if they didn’t know this). Some believe he was essentially a sex pest, a predator who used his position to coerce young women into sexual relationships. Others might shrug that off and say “Well, nobody’s perfect.” Each person cares about this information to a different level.

The average person will never be in a position where beliefs on gun control or climate change or the death penalty will affect their daily lives.

Likewise, whether Joseph Smith was a sexual predator, given that he’s been dead for a long time, is not a direct threat to people today. The issue is what the implications of that belief are, and how we feel about the types of people who believe things we don’t accept.

Which kind of brings us to another important point the book makes…

First, leave your community. This one was kind of interesting. In the book, McRaney shares the experience of two members of the Westboro Baptist Church who left their faith. When they first left, they still believed that gay people were going to hell. They left because the community became intolerable. The restrictions placed on them and the way they were treated when they asked questions caused them to finally decide, during a heated argument, to grab their things and leave. This was extremely difficult because this was a church founded by their grandfather.

Members of the church were highly educated; many of them were lawyers. As previously mentioned, the smarter you are, the easier to justify your beliefs, even if they are wrong or harmful. So, if you believe that gay people are going to hell, using hate speech to picket funerals for gay soldiers feels like you are doing something compassionate to prevent others from going to hell. Being in a group where those beliefs are not questioned, where the justifications are supported, and where the ridicule and opposition from outsiders is strong, all reinforce the “rightness” of these wrong beliefs.

Once they left the group, they could examine those beliefs without the pressure of social standing. They could be more objective. It’s one reason cults and some churches restrict contact with outsiders. This can range from physical isolation on a compound to a policy of shunning to simply smearing the reputation of those that leave. The risk is less about encountering contradictory facts and more about meeting and respecting those whose views differ, and those risks go up if there is an alternative community full of people we previously considered dangerous but now see are reasonable and kind.

But that process doesn’t start with an argument from an outsider.

You can’t change someone else’s mind. People can change their own minds, but when you try to change someone’s mind, you are setting yourself up in an adversarial relationship to them: “I’m right; you’re wrong. Here’s why.” As a missionary, I remember encountering Jehovah’s Witnesses who had a much more adversarial style of proselytizing (at least in that time and place they did). We called it Bible bashing. They were going to prove you didn’t know what you were talking about, but they did. They would start with a setup question that was designed to make you see that you didn’t know something basic like the name of God. I recall thinking that they were asking closed questions, not open ones. There was no discussion, just them showing you that they knew more than you did (based on answers that were entirely subjective–different religions had different answers to these questions, all theoretically relying on the same Biblical text). The problem isn’t really the content of the message (although I would argue it’s also that); it’s the fundamental approach. When you try to argue someone out of their beliefs, they dig in their heels. You are not arguing against their facts so much as their identity and sense of self.

The book encourages the reader to examine your motives; why do you want to change someone else’s mind? Before you assume you are right, maybe you should take yourself through the same “deconstruction” process outlined in the book.

Here’s a breakdown of the core techniques:

  1. Ask Open-Ended Questions: Instead of challenging beliefs outright, ask how someone arrived at their position. For example, “What led you to that belief?” This invites introspection without defensiveness. Ask about specific experiences they’ve had that related to that belief.
  2. Use the “Scale of Certainty”: Ask people to rate their certainty about a belief on a scale (e.g., 0-100). When they realize they are not 100% certain, it opens the door for dialogue. Ask them why it’s not higher (or lower).
  3. Listen Actively: Show genuine curiosity. Deep listening allows individuals to feel heard, which lowers emotional resistance to change. This is one reason that often the highest barrier to persuasion is believing so much that we are right that we aren’t even interested in what they believe.
  4. Reflect Back Their Reasoning: Summarize what they said, which often makes people more aware of inconsistencies in their logic. Before you continue, make sure they agree with the summary. You can ask them again how they would rate their certainty. Sometimes they still hold the same belief, but have a lower confidence level or are a little more open-minded about it.
  5. Encourage Self-Discovery: Avoid lecturing or offering your opinion. Instead, help people identify gaps in their reasoning by gently asking questions like, “If this weren’t true, how might you know?”

This process avoids antagonizing the other person, creating a safe space where they feel empowered to reconsider their views without pressure. The techniques are supported by research showing that people are more likely to change beliefs when they come to conclusions themselves, rather than through external argumentation or evidence dumping. In short, people don’t change other people’s beliefs. They allow other people to change their own beliefs. Our experiences and the communities we engage with shape how we interpret the facts we learn.

It seems that the current Church has made some serious missteps when it comes to community, which is one of the most valuable assets it had in terms of retention. The loss of community-building activities and the reduction in how much time Church members spend together and how genuine some of those interactions are contribute to the problem. Parents of teens find particular value in the church community, but even this has been greatly threatened by the church’s stance on queer and trans kids being out of step with society at large. Due to social media, it’s easier than ever for non-believers to connect with other non-believers, whether virtually or in person. Many who leave the church are the ones who are more connected and in step with society at large, meaning that those who remain are becoming more conservative and more insular, potentially more rigid in their views and hostile to other perspectives. This distillation of the membership will only result in more people who leave because they ultimately find the community intolerable, and then the cycle continues. Some leaders have lamented that the Church is losing its best people. When a company starts losing its best people, it usually takes a huge culture shift to recover, if that’s even possible.

Some churches that have a much longer history than Mormonism have found ways to maintain that sense of belonging even when they have had to change some of their core beliefs to do it and increase their acceptance of differences. After all, to paraphrase McRaney, we don’t choose our beliefs so much as we choose our communities (because we admire the people in them), and they in turn influence our beliefs. With the extreme political polarization in our country right now, it’s hard to see how any churches survive in their previous state. Many non-LDS congregations have sorted along political lines. While Mormon congregations are less overtly political than most, I certainly observed an uptick in veiled political rhetoric over the pulpit when compared to the before times. Political polarization is just one of many cultural stresses that are eroding a sense of community in churches.

  • Have you used these techniques on someone else or yourself? How did it work?
  • How has community shaped your beliefs? Have you seen your beliefs change when you changed communities?
  • Have you seen those who’ve left the church successfully replace that community?
  • In light of all this, what do you think the church could do, if anything, to improve retention?

Discuss.