After a flurry of posts following the events of January 6, 2021 and the bumpy transition to the Biden presidency on January 20, 2021, there have been few posts here at W&T touching on presidential politics. Post election, there was less to talk about and there were few Mormon angles to pursue. Also, “Trump fatigue” was a factor for many of us and still is, leading to some just tuning out most political discussions. But with the 2024 presidential election just five months away, things are heating up again. It promises to be a rough few months and a historically bitter election campaign. Voters are, on the whole, unhappy with the two presumptive candidates presented by the major parties and, of course, one of them was just convicted of 34 felonies in New York state court. Let’s look at where things are right now, what developments may arise in the next few months, and how this impacts the LDS Church and its members. I’m going to use a Q&A format to keep my discussion focused and fairly straightforward.

What’s going to happen next in the Trump hush money election interference case?

This trial appears to be the only one that will be concluded before the upcoming election. With verdicts now delivered, each side will soon offer post-trial motions, such as the Defendant moving to have the current gag order rescinded. The Defendant will meet with a New York probation officer, who will prepare a very interesting pre-sentencing report for the Court. The sentencing hearing is scheduled for July 11 before the judge — the jury’s work is completed at this point. I am guessing the parties will submit briefs to the judge suggesting not only a proposed sentence but also how to deal with the logistics of incarcerating a former president given the duties of the Secret Service to protect him at all times.

What is a sentence going to look like here?

First, no judge tells someone convicted of 34 felonies to just go home and not do it again. And, at the other extreme, it seems unlikely the judge would impose a sentence of several years to be served at the local state prison, given the duties of the ex-President’s protection detail. Mr. Trump’s lack of remorse or contrition, paired with the ten contempt rulings against him during the proceeding, certainly weighs against him at sentencing. It might be a one- or two-year sentence, served initially on weekends at a secure location in New York (Trump Tower or some secure government location), with limitations on visitors and media access during those weekends. But any sentence will likely be deferred pending the resolution of the many appeals which will no doubt be filed by the Defendant’s attorneys in New York appellate courts. The United States Supreme Court will hear an appeal from this case only if the Defendant can present a constitutional issue that the Court then agrees to take up. The US Supreme Court is not required to hear an appeal.

It is entirely unclear how Trump will continue to campaign as the Republican nominee should this or a more severe incarceration regime be imposed and not deferred beyond election day. Such is the lot of a convicted felon, who loses a great deal of control over their life circumstances.

How is this going to affect the November 2024 US presidential election?

This is the big question. Early post-verdict polling suggests a small percentage of Trump voters are now disinclined to vote for him in November. In a close race, that’s enough to swing an election. Here’s where things get rather speculative. It’s unlikely but nevertheless possible that if that trend continues in coming weeks, the Republican Party convention (held in mid-July) might choose to nominate a different candidate rather than ride a losing horse right to the finish line. Politicians hate to lose. It is even possible that, faced with a younger non-Trump candidate with less baggage and broader appeal, President Biden might decline to run for a second term rather than lose to say Nikki Haley (see Lyndon Johnson in 1968 for the most recent parallel).

It has been a long time since a dark-horse candidate upended a US presidential race, but it is not unprecedented. We are used to rather predictable candidates representing both major parties running rather predictable campaigns, with the loser at some point graciously conceding to the victor. This has not always been the case in United States presidential elections and, it would appear, it will not be so in 2024. A significant third-party candidate garnering a noticeable percentage of votes or a dark-horse major party candidate obtaining a major party nomination could happen in 2024. Let’s hope political violence does not become part of the story this time around.

These guys are really old.

Trump turns 78 this month. President Biden is 81. Most people seem to think this is really old for the demanding job of a US president. President Nelson turns 100 in September. President Oaks and President Eyring are both 91. Depending on your point of view, that either means nah, our presidential candidates aren’t really that old, or wow, our LDS leaders are really old, probably too old to be running a global religious enterprise. I’ll bet very few Mormons favoring either party complain about how old the presumptive candidates are!

What about an October surprise?

It’s hard to top a felony conviction. If something comes out of left field in October, it would probably be in foreign affairs, say another military conflict that gets everyone’s attention and beckons US involvement. Historically, overseas military involvement by US forces rallies most voters behind the sitting president, but who knows whether that would hold true in 2024. If Biden handles it well, it might rally additional support for him. If he doesn’t, or if Trump’s predictable claim that “they wouldn’t have done this if I were president” is seen as plausible, it might hurt Biden. And who knows what our thriving misinformation networks on social media and fringe journalism will come up with as the election nears.

Where does the Church come into all of this?

I think the LDS leadership is doing its best to just sit this one out, that is avoid making any statements this presidential election cycle. So we are walking into what may be the defining election of the 21st century, with the possibility of widespread domestic unrest that will roil wards and stakes as much as states and parties — and they are basically saying and doing nothing, apart from pleas for civility which are largely ignored. Not that there is an easy course of action to recommend. Almost anything they say will alienate some of the membership. Rock and a hard place.

Is the Church in a lose-lose situation here?

Honestly, it might be. The Church seems to be leaking progressive members, who are getting increasingly frustrated with feeling like the LDS Church has become the Church of Trump. LDS leaders, as noted above, have not done much to repudiate this tendency. LDS leaders themselves may be frustrated some LDS seem to be taking their cues from Trump rather than from LDS teachings or statements. The choice of LDS leaders to wait five or six weeks before publicly acknowledging Biden as the winner of the 2020 election still stands out as an implicit show of support for Trump and his supporters. But any sort of explicit statement by LDS leadership trying to bring more balance back would no doubt alienate many conservative Mormons.

LDS leadership probably hopes that simply republishing the LDS political neutrality statement (as amended to remove the good moral character suggestion, another concession to Trump) before every election is sufficient, but that’s sort of central headquarters thinking. At the ground level of wards and stakes, many non-Trump LDS are not convinced or reassured by the “say nothing and hope for the best” leadership approach. Apart from those who formally exit or quietly cease attending, there are plenty of others who still attend but for whom the Church and LDS leadership have lost a fair amount of credibility. My impression is that most remaining progressive or Democratic Mormons (maybe 20% of active US?) are mildly or deeply frustrated by the recent rightward lurch of conservative members and LDS leadership. Partisan sentiments will no doubt be amplified and sometimes openly expressed in LDS meetings as the election approaches. Just imagine discussions in LDS adult Sunday School when the material covers king-men and chief judges and secret combinations in a few weeks.

What about the US Constitution hanging by a thread?

You have no doubt heard the Mormon claim that at some point in the future the US Constitution will hang by a thread and the Mormons will ride in to save it. It’s always the commies or the socialists who are the threat in repeated tellings of this story. Surprise! It appears Trump and the Republican extremists (they’re not really conservative anymore) are the ones that are crashing through constitutional guardrails and rewriting political norms. The irony seems lost on LDS members and leaders alike.

So let’s talk about it. I’m going to focus on the LDS angle.

  • Do you know anyone who no longer attends your LDS ward or branch because of politics or political views expressed or pushed by local leaders or fellow ward members?
  • In your experience, are local members avoiding political statements in Sunday meetings? Or not?
  • Do you share my sense that both the membership and the leadership have moved to the right, maybe way right, in recent years?
  • Is the Church in a no-win situation here? What could the Church do or say to retain frustrated members without alienating new ones?