Given how closely tied the LDS Church is to America and to US politics, it’s worth a post reflecting on what the next twelve months will bring here in the United States and how the fateful election of November 2024 will play out. I think it’s going to be a messy, tumultuous, angry year. I’m laying out the election scenarios in some detail, largely for the benefit of non-US readers, followed by comments on how this will affect the country, the world, and the LDS Church.

What spurred this post was Trump’s recent win in the South Carolina primary a few days ago, roughly 60% for Trump and 40% for Nikki Haley, his sole remaining opponent on the Republican side. This win practically assures Trump of the Republican nomination: if Haley was going to do well anywhere, it would have been in South Carolina, where she had previously been a popular governor and where the open primary rules there allowed non-Republican voters to cross lines and vote for her. On the one hand, it looks like a big win for Trump. On the other hand, for a candidate who is essentially an incumbent and facing only one opponent to only get 60% highlights the fact that a minority of Republican voters (maybe one in ten?) simply won’t vote for him, nor will many independents and, of course, few Democrats.

Nevertheless, it looks like we are going to get the election no one really wants: Trump v. Biden, Round 2. And here is my prognostication: No matter how this turns out, a lot of people are going to be unhappy, possibly violently unhappy. Here are the various ways things are going to go wrong.

Scenario 1: The Supreme Court rules against Trump’s eligibility to hold office. The case of Trump v. Anderson has been argued before the US Supreme Court and a decision is expected shortly. The issue before the Court is whether the 14th Amendment, Section 3, applies to Trump and makes him ineligible to again hold federal office. That amendment bars anyone who previously took an oath as an officer of the United States to support the Constitution, then later engages in “insurrection or rebellion against the same,” from again holding office. There are legal arguments to be made on both sides of the case. Reports of the questioning by the Justices at oral argument suggest most are skeptical of using the amendment to bar Trump’s from holding office. If that’s where the decision goes, then Trump’s campaign will move forward.

Should the Court rule that the amendment applies to Trump and he cannot hold office, then all hell will break loose. There might be civil unrest across the country. The Republican Party will still have to nominate a candidate at their convention this July. If Trump is disqualified early, Nikki Haley might be able to garner enough delegates in remaining primary elections to get the nomination. If it happens later, after Trump has a majority of delegates locked up, those delegates and the leadership at the convention would probably pivot to a third candidate as Trump delegates would almost certainly not vote for Haley.

But it could get even messier. Trump could still get nominated by the party (the amendment doesn’t say a party can’t nominate such a person). In some states, the secretary of state or other official in charge of elections might leave Trump on the general election ballot anyway (again, the amendment doesn’t bar such a person from being on the ballot, only from holding office) while in other states Trump might be struck from the ballot. In states where his name is not on the ballot, thousands or millions of voters might write him in, which will of course make the ballot counting a lot more complicated. Then when electors (of the Electoral College) vote and slates of their votes are submitted to Congress, there will be reasonable grounds for objections to be made and it could be a fairly lengthy process to resolve those objections. There will no doubt be huge crowds outside the Capitol cheering and jeering, and maybe looting and shooting. If you thought Jan 6, 2021 was a circus, wait until Jan. 6, 2025 under this scenario. Regardless of the merits of the case, I think it will be better for the country if Trump runs and loses, repudiated by the voters in a free and fair election, than if he is disqualified.

Scenario 2: Trump is convicted of a crime before the election on Tuesday Nov. 5, 2024. You’ve probably seen a statement like this several times in the last few months: Trump is facing four criminal cases that allege a total of 91 felony counts. Most politicians facing that sort of legal jeopardy would not run for office while the charges were pending. Most parties would not nominate a candidate facing such charges. Most voters would not normally vote for a candidate facing such charges. But there’s nothing normal about Trump or this election. He is running. He will likely be nominated by the Republican Party. And the vast majority of his supporters will still vote for him even if he is convicted before the election. But there are some voters currently supporting Trump who would just not be able to bring themselves to vote for a convicted felon, and losing another slice of Republican voters would almost certainly result in a Trump loss.

In most states, convicted felons lose the right to vote, sometimes permanently. But strange as it may seem, a felony conviction does not appear to bar you from running and winning an election (as rare as that scenario may be). So even if convicted, Trump could still conceivably (although unlikely) win the election and take office. He could either govern from jail or be sentenced to house arrest (at the White House?) or be given probation. Then he would try to pardon himself, which would bring another Supreme Court case. Presidential pardons apply only to federal crimes, not to state crimes, so he could not pardon himself from a state conviction in New York (the hush money case, falsifying business records) or in Georgia (the election interference case). Obviously, this would be a bizarre outcome that could reach a point where Trump would lose support from some Republicans in Congress, who might thereafter consider removing him from office. But we have a long way to go before possibly reaching that point.

Scenario 3: Trump v. Biden and Biden wins. This is the most likely scenario at this point, given the strong position of each candidate in their party and Trump’s strong negatives with most independents. It would still be messy. Trump would of course again make false claims that the election was rigged or stolen, but even his solid supporters might tire of hearing this refrain. It’s sad to see our long tradition of a peaceful and orderly transfer of power interrupted and possibly dead. Republicans would of course make a variety of objections when the electoral college votes are counted in Congress, with the Capitol no doubt surrounded by thousands of National Guard troops. But on the whole, this is the least problematic scenario.

Scenario 4: Trump v. Biden and Trump wins. Under this scenario, Trump won’t cry foul about the election. But others might, and with all the partisan measures and strategies being deployed in various states (it’s the states that run elections), who knows what irregularities might actually occur this time around. Trump, having for years worked hard to undermine confidence in US elections, shouldn’t be surprised if people object to his own election victory. Vice President Harris might have to deal with truly disputed slates of electors on Jan. 6, 2025 (as opposed to the fraudulent slates that were attempted to be submitted in 2021). Up until 2021, counting electoral votes was uneventful and merited maybe 60 seconds on the evening news. Going forward, it will be high drama, with the country always watching to see whether partisan officeholders in Congress will uphold or try to subvert the results of a free and fair election. You would think the oaths that representatives and senators swear upon taking office would preclude such subversion, but not so much anymore.

What does all this mean domestically for the United States? Obviously, if there is rioting in the streets or angry and unruly mobs gathering outside courthouses or state legislatures around the country when key decisions are made, that’s very bad. Even if judges and legislators are not influenced by such tactics, many people will think they were. If partisan politicians and commentators continue to assail our elections, voter confidence in the legitimacy of the process suffers and the process loses credibility. Winning candidates lose credibility. Instead of candidates debating issues and proposing policies that voters then respond to, the focus of election campaigns might devolve into back-and-forth accusations of election malfeasance, mingled with personal attacks. Let’s face it: The system is slowly failing.

What does it mean in the rest of the world? This is where it gets ugly. If Trump wins on Nov. 5, 2024, there will be dancing in the Kremlin. NATO members will lose much of their confidence, given Trump’s recent statements to the effect that the US might not honor its treaty commitments to NATO. Trump might even attempt to withdraw from NATO. Obviously, Ukraine’s ability to continue fighting against Russian troops, as well as its overall morale, will plummet as US aid dries up, as it certainly will if Trump wins. I doubt Putin will stop with a victory in Ukraine. And why would he? His economy is already militarized, neither casualties nor sanctions seem to have much effect on his decisions, and he will reasonably conclude that the West does not have the backbone to directly oppose him militarily. If he moves against Poland or one of the Baltic states, would NATO respond with full US support? If so, it could be World War 3. If NATO and the US do not respond forcefully, they lose even more credibility. Other aggressive countries might also act opportunistically. China moves against Taiwan? North Korea moves against South Korea? Someone uses a nuke? Even if Biden wins the election, domestic tension and civil unrest in the US will give bad actors around the world a window of opportunity where they may choose to act thinking the US is too distracted to respond quickly and forcefully. They might be right.

What does it mean for the LDS Church? Here’s the real focus of the post. If civil unrest undermines the normal functioning of the government or the economy, Latter-day Saints and the Church will be negatively affected just like other citizens and other institutions. Where it really gets tricky is gauging the effect it will have on the LDS rank and file. The sticky fact is that a majority of LDS active members are quite conservative (as is LDS leadership across the board) and are strong supporters of Trump (as are many local leaders and — harder to tell — some of the senior leadership). Whether Trump wins or loses, the election will stir up a lot of noise and emotion, which some of these LDS Trump supporters will bring to church on Sunday and broadcast over the pulpit or in class.

As a result, active LDS members in the US who are *not* Trump supporters will become even more alienated. I suspect that is even more true for active LDS in other countries, who are understandably confused and disheartened by the LDS love affair with Trump. LDS leadership has set themselves up for this by allowing the Church to become so politicized and so conservative in recent years. Some left-leaning or politically moderate LDS churchgoers have already left. More will leave as the election heats up, and those who stay (I count myself in this group) will think less and less of their Trump-worshipping fellow Mormons. Even if they don’t bear testimony of Trump on Sunday, their religious convictions and sincere testimonies don’t carry much credibility anymore. I think this whole dynamic (of alienated non-Trumpers) holds true whether it’s Trump or Biden that is the eventual winner.

I recognize that LDS leadership is in a pickle here. They have tried, with some success over the years, to stay neutral in election matters. But wading into the culture wars so forcefully on the conservative side in recent decades, including on election issues (but not for or against particular candidates), has undermined that claim of neutrality. At General Conference, a speaker or two may plead for civility and less rancor in public speech — but no one seems to be listening. So the leadership is stuck repeating phony claims of neutrality paired with ineffective pleas for kindness and civility. Non-Trump supporters and non-US Mormons are the big losers here. Senior leadership and the institution itself are mild losers. Trump supporters will probably be happy to chase away the libs and have a de facto Church of Trump. If LDS leadership eventually tries to move the institutional needle back toward the middle of the political spectrum, they will alienate LDS MAGA types, but many of the LDS liberals who would applaud such a move will have already left.

Conclusion. So a year from now, at the end of February 2025, I’m going to dig up this post, review my observations, and write a follow-up post. I’ll bet you can’t wait. As for your comments, most of the post was a set up for the last section on how political events of the next twelve months will affect the Church and its members. My view is that no matter how things turn out, no matter which scenario comes to pass, the campaigns, the election process, and predictable post-election challenges will be messy and possibly violent. It is likely to be another ugly chapter in this time of troubles.

  • If you are a Trump supporter, how do you think the next twelve months will affect the Church or your activity in the Church?
  • If you not a Trump supporter (a Democrat, an independent, or a never-Trump Republican), how do you think the next twelve months will affect the Church or your activity in the Church?
  • If you live outside the United States, what do you make of all this? Has your view of US politics and Trump’s MAGA movement affected how you view the Church?