Dr Ryan Cragun made news this week when he said that Utah is no longer a majority Mormon state. How did he come to that conclusion? We’ll talk about it in our next conversation. Check it out!
LDS are legendary for tracking membership statistics. How do other religions track membership, or do they? We’ll talk about the rise of Nones, the 2nd fastest growing religious group with Sociologist Dr Ryan Cragun. The Church numbers show 60% of Utahns are LDS, but Ryan’s survey showed just 42% self-identify as Mormons. The 2nd largest group is “Nones.” When asked if many of those Nones were baptized, Ryan indicated that was likely. So, that explains the discrepancy in numbers. They are counting quite differently.
Even though this information likely bothers church leaders, there is perhaps a silver lining. We’ve talked about why people don’t identify as religious, but is it true that Conservative Churches grow at a faster rate? Is it true churches in the Global South are growing? The answer is yes. Why is that? Dr Ryan Cragun answers this conundrum.
We also discussed a paper Ryan released earlier in 2023. We’ll also discuss his recent papers asking when women get LDS priesthood. Will Christ return before women get priesthood? (Many survey respondents said Yes!) Do you agree?
What role does politics play in religious affiliation? Dr Ryan Cragun gives us a few hints and discusses his upcoming book on the topic.
What do you think of Ryan’s findings? Do you see a 3rd Great Awakening on the horizon where people flock to church again?
I know many people like to point out the Church’s stance on LGBT issues, women & priesthood, and conservative policies as being problematic for church growth, but the fact is, progressive churches who do ordain women, allow gay clergy are declining at a faster rate. How do you explain this phenomenon? Why are both conservative and progressive churches declining? Ryan has a theory that rich, industrialized countries lose interest in religion in general. Do you buy that, or is there a better explanation?
Wheat & Tares 
A quick peek on the internet shows a travel site that says 95% of Spaniards are Catholic and 5% are Muslim, but a sociology site says just 36% of Spain’s population identifies as Catholic (with only 18% practicing). Both may be seen as true; neither is wholly reliable for important decision-making purposes.
Conservatives don’t like it when people are “woke.” It serves them very well to have people going to church who don’t question and just accept the status quo. Those who are awakening now are those who are leaving the church (both LDS and traditional/evangelical faiths) because they are starting to see the limitations of religion. Therefore in my mind, if there is going to be a third awakening, it will be people leaving churches and finding out that spirituality/religion has more to do with social justice and environmental care than it does with whatever it conservatives want Christianity to represent.
For those of us living in Utah, I think the idea Cragun’s 42% seems intuitively in the ballpark. While the ~60% cited by the Church surely was once true, there’s no way it hasn’t dropped over the last 20+ years.
Cragun did call the Church’s published number “un-useful” (at least in a sociological context), but I think it’s incredibly useful from the perspective of the church for a few reasons:
–It would be a black eye for the LDS Church to lose majority status in the state where it’s headquartered, especially with recent problematic headlines about the LDS church.
–The LDS Church in Utah exerts MASSIVE political influence in the state. There have always been critics of this, but the church has always been able to take shelter in the idea that they do actually represent the majority of Utah voters – if this is no longer the case, then it starts to raise eyebrows.
–The church always wants to project an air of stability and authority in an era where religion is in decline. It just so happens that their idiosyncratic reporting methods help them with this image.
I’m interested in the idea of Mormonism as a cultural identity rather than as a religion. I wonder how the data would shift if the survey asked people what religion they identify with culturally. We assign ourselves all sorts of labels to suit our perceived/desired identity, even if that label might not seem to make sense. For example, I have friends who regularly talk about being Italian – they don’t speak Italian, they’ve never been to Italy, their family has been in the US for 100+ years, and they’ve intermarried with non-Italians for generations…regardless, they consider themselves Italian. We see similar things in many religions – millions of people identify as Catholic, Jewish, etc. but who rarely/never practice the formal religion. As Mormonism ages, it’s starting to see similar things IMO.
As for the idea that industrialized countries lose interest in religion, I think it’s more that richer countries have a lot of interesting substitute goods to fulfill spiritual and social needs. In many ways, politics is the new religion (especially in the US)…complete with all the fire & brimstone and Puritanical purging tendencies. But also, you can easily get your weekly dose of social interaction and/or spiritual enlightenment from your local yoga studio or golf course…and it’s probably cheaper than paying tithing.
So sociologists have started to ask how people to self-identify, and there is a socially acceptable mode of self-identification (“Nones”). I wonder…. will the Church start being a little gentler on those demographics that could identify as LDS but are now tempted to not identify as LDS? Could the Church minister more to “cultural Mormons?”
I agree with Cragun that people become more secular the more developed a nation becomes. “Rich, industrialized countries lose interest in religion” is exactly what happens. The US has lagged for some reason, which is perhaps harder to pin down. It could be the spaciousness and isolation of many American communities (e.g. rural ‘Murica), or it could be that the churches themselves are extremely secular.
Off-thread, but the 8 Jan. contribution from The Pirate Priest struck a chord – asking people to identify with a ‘culture’ rather than a set church may be interesting. An excellent example comes to mind: the greater Salt Lake community has been blessed for some eight decades by a bartender-turned-newspaper publisher named John Saltas. He fervently identifies with the Greek community, and joyfully touts his Greek heritage – his father emigrated to the state from that country. However, that father married a sweet Utah girl who had been raised in the Mormon society of northeastern Utah. So John Saltas could as easily have identified with his LDS side, and have spent his life promoting and supporting the LDS communities and groups across the valley, including leading tour groups to northeastern Utah sites of interest to those with ties to LDS heritage. If you ask John if he identifies as ‘Mormon’, he will say ‘no’, although 50% of his DNA might suggest otherwise. Interesting.
“ but the fact is, progressive churches who do ordain women, allow gay clergy are declining at a faster rate. How do you explain this phenomenon?”
Testosterone?
Ive long thought that a good part of the male involvement in our (LDS) church—and others—is because they reign over women.
Religion in first world has damaged its own image, by sex scandals, child abuse, and protecting ,their own, and financial scandals.
In third world countries they do not have access to the internet that would tell them about this behaviour, so in their innocence/ignorance they are still susceptible. Like first world people were before the internet made hiding their behaviour so much more difficult.
So the age of the internet coincides with the loss of trust/faith.
An example; most of us trusted that Israel was acting in good faith, that the 2 state solution was a possibility. Now we all know the Israeli government are extremists bent on removing or killing all palistinians, so Israel will all/only be for Jews.
The Biden administration is loosing credibility because it continues to support Israel. Israel will only stop when the military aid supplied by America is all used to kill as many palistinians as possible. 25000 civilians, including 8000 children, and 8000 mothers, so far. Slow learners if they can’t see what everyone else does. Why are American politicians so scared of the Jewish lobby?
Geoff, instead of being anti-Palestinian, might one say that the Israeli government is anti-Hamas? You write: “Israel will only stop when the military aid supplied by America is all used to kill as many palistinians as possible.” Is that right? The Israeli government isn’t doing anything against the Palestinian people in the west bank, where the Palestinian Organization is ruling. The people of Gaza chose Hamas, and our government has long called Hamas a terrorist organization, probably with good reason. Hamas has chosen to use Palestinians as their human shields, and Hamas planned the despicable attack and encouraged cruel acts of pure depravity. Might Israel be going too far in their campaign to root out Hamas? Maybe. But to say that “the Israeli government are extremists bent on removing or killing all palistinians” might also be going too far.
Well, since we’re already talking about the matter, I wonder why Hamas hasn’t surrendered already? I am thinking that maybe Hamas wants to kill as many Palestinian people as possible, as part of its perverted logic to turn the world against Israel. I wish Hamas would surrender (after all, Hamas started the war) and work for peace.
Lois:
“ but the fact is, progressive churches who do ordain women, allow gay clergy are declining at a faster rate. How do you explain this phenomenon?”
Well, 1. most progressive churches count who is in the pews vs. membership rolls. 2. Since we can’t be sure of the numbers reported, we can’t be sure of the growth vs. decline numbers. 3. We don’t understand how “liberal” vs “conservative” patrons attend church or how they think of their spirituality and their need to reinforce it with a church. 4. Women and LGBTQ issues may push people away from conservative churches but we’re not really sure why people are leaving more liberal churches unless people are aligning in church the way they do politically. 5. Finally, there is a difference in the degree of “high demand” for church attendance with liberal vs conservative churches; conservative churches demand more.
These points are not made as an argument but as more of a speculation to explain. There is plenty of bad news for both liberal and conservative religions/churches. When I was young, I thought church was about right vs wrong. Now, I see there is a lot more stuff involved and right vs. wrong is either an afterthought, a shallow justification, or a manipulated response to justify a belief/action.
As for “Testosterone?” You nailed it!!!
Lois:
“ but the fact is, progressive churches who do ordain women, allow gay clergy are declining at a faster rate. How do you explain this phenomenon?”
Cragun actually discussed this on a podcast I listened to. If you are in a more liberal religion that supports minorities, then your religious community is mirroring generally what we see in society. So if you can get the same support from society that you get from church attendance, perhaps some of these folks realize they don’t need to attend church to feel seen as they can be seen elsewhere.
Contrast this to more conservative congregations that do not support these minorities. The only place to go to have your views validated is your church community, because generally social media and society at large will disagree with your viewpoints. So you need your religious community. Very much.
Also testosterone FTW!
Georgis
BTW
Netanyahu has opposed a 2 state solution.
Netanyahu has a big hand in creating/allowing the current situation by his nurturing of Hamas control of Gaza vs supporting the Palestinian Authority.
Chadwick,
Maybe that’s true for you but for me I live in a conservative area and all my friends and everyone I know is conservative. The situation you described is inverse.
lws329,
Yes agreed there are still conservative communities. As most of us are also media consumers, I would presume watching anything on Disney+ or Netflix would show minorities and marginalized in leading roles, which may temper the attitudes of those in the community. It’s a global marketplace now. It was Cragun’s observation, not mine, but that would be my guess.
Georgis, You say “The Israeli government isn’t doing anything against the palistinians on the west bank”. In 2016 there were no Jews living on the west bank and 3 million palistinians. Since then the Jewish government has been building roads (which the palistinians are not allowed to use) and establishing Jewish settlements. There are now nearly 900,000 Jews living in the west bank, and each settler is issued with a free AR15 to defend themselves. In 2023 550 palistinians were killed by Jews, on the west bank. Just taking their land, without compensation, and killing them.
The cruel acts by hamas are mostly Israeli fiction, such as burning and beheading of babies, have been disproven. The 8000 children killed by Israel plus almost as many buried under rubble are verified by aid agencies.
There are over 2 million palistinians in a very small area that the israelies told them would be safe from bombing. The whole of Gaza is 25 miles by 6 miles. Thay are now crowded into an area of 3 miles by 5. To say hamas is using people as human shields when they are crowded together and being bombed doesn’t make sense.
Ji, I had wondered what coverage you are getting there. It looks like you are getting the Israeli version. After 28,000 Palestinians have been killed, after their houses and businesses have been destroyed, after their food, water, fuel, and medicine, have been cut off by Israel, I expect hamas probably have more supporters now. They are the only people fighting Israel, who is trying to exterminate them, or drive them into the Ejyptian desert. A number of the present Israeli government have said there will be no two state solution, the solution is Israel without Palestinians. Why would you think hamas wants their own mothers, wives, and children starved, and killed?
I don’t know whether you heard; there were prisoner exchanges. The palistinians released were 14 to 17 year olds who were being held without trial (some up to 4 years) mostly for throwing stones. Those that were released had their homes raided and trashed by Israeli defence force, on their release day so there would not be joy in their homes. Evil?
Geoff, I don’t say that Hamas are all angels, nor do I say that Israelis are all devils. I try to avoid hyperbole. I also try to cite correct facts.
You write: “In 2016 there were no Jews living on the west bank and 3 million palistinians.” Really, no Jews, zero? A source (npr.org) tells me that there were 100,000 Jewish settlers in the West Bank in 1993, and that number had grown to 400,000 when the article was published in 2016. (7 Things To Know About Israeli Settlements, 29 December 2016, at npr.org). Another source tells me that Israeli settlements in the West Bank began in 1968, after the war in June 1967. (Israel’s West Bank settlements: 4 questions answered, at theconversation.com). Wikipedia informs us: “As early as September 1967, Israeli settlement policy was progressively encouraged by the Labor government of Levi Eshkol.” (Israeli Settlement, Wikipedia). Maybe these sources are all wrong.
It wasn’t the Jews alone who created the State of Israel. It was the United Nations. According to Wikipedia, the UN vote was 33-13. Australia voted yes, as did the UK, the Soviet Union, the US, and many other states, and there were 10 abstentions. (United Nations Partition Plan for Palestine, Wikipedia).
Out here. Thanks to Rick B for this post. It raised tough questions. Yes, it seems that richer countries lose interest in religion. But that might be because churches in those countries lose their focus. Instead of focusing on individual salvation by repentance through faith in Christ, churches become cultural centers, places for social work and poverty relief, locations where schools are organized, etc. And they become rich. They quit “marketing” the gospel of individual salvation, and begin “marketing” other things, like social justice issues. Seems like we marketed for while “join the Church, live the word of wisdom, and be healthy.” We also marked “join the church and have a happy family.” Well, members in the church still got cancer, and marriages ended in divorce, and parents were cruel to children, even too often inside the church. I have no problem with churches doing good, but the primary commodity a Christian church should sell (if I can be crass enough to use economic terms) is individual salvation. Churches that sell other products will see a decrease in numbers. I haven’t studied this, and I might be wrong.
Don’t we have post on Israel and Palestine? If not, why not, and who is best qualified to engage (podcast or post ) with the Mormon history, and cultural relevance of the matter?
I don’t feel comfortable on the fact that it was only after I deconstructed my moronism that I became much more selective in my support of Israel.
Something a research colleague said last fall really made me think:
“The main point…is that we as students of international relations must work to understand the distinctions and complexities of any such conflicts, and do our best to do so not in a polarizing fashion. For if we cannot do it, then how can we expect that anyone can?
In this conflict, then, it must be acknowledged that Hamas is an organization that aims to annihilate the State of Israel and kill Jews in an effort to establish an authoritarian Palestine.
Not freedom fighters.
This is something that is separate from supporting Palestinian self-determination and a two-state solution.
We can denounce terrorism and support self-determination.
Just as in the case of Israel, one can be against the government’s settlement policies and not be an anti-Semite.
We can denounce occupational policy and not hate Jewish people. We must condemn the killing of innocent civilians wherever that happens and by whoever does so. At the end of day, from either side, civilian casualties are objectively bad and morally “
Hamas and Israel’s government are both out there doing their best to further their own, oversimplified narratives, that again serve their exclusive interests.
I dunno what the solution(s) are, but we do need more people be a lil more skeptical, especially on social media.
Georgis,
There is the “wherein did we feed thee and clothe thee and visit thee in prison thing”. Seems to me if you take Jesus at his word the only way to individual salvation is through social justice.