The first time I was ever in Utah, it was a very strange experience for me. I had always lived in places where the Church is so much in the minority that I was usually the only church member my friends knew. People didn’t talk about church in public. In fact, I only discovered as a senior in high school, kind of by accident, that the majority of my classmates all attended the same local Church of the Brethren congregation. It was bad manners to talk about your religion in public, and religious freedom meant pluralism, respecting the rights of everyone to privately hold their own religious beliefs while also supporting everyone else’s rights to do so.
The biggest culture shock of my life was that people in Utah talked openly about church–all the time–and it was clearly the main thing in their lives. It had been a big thing in our lives, too. We just didn’t talk about meetings and activities with people who weren’t also involved. I overheard people talking about religion and their religious assumptions in the grocery store in Utah. It was bizarre. The other thing that surprised me was how much influence the church exerted in politics. When people said the liquor laws were based on the Church’s word of wisdom, I was completely thrown. How on earth could a church be involved in politics, openly? (Bear in mind that this was the mid-80s, back when people were more religious and talked about it a whole lot less).
It occurred to me that maybe being Mormon in Utah was like being Catholic in Rome. The Church could do whatever it wanted because it had so much power and could exert its influence over the voting public. I didn’t know if I liked that at the time, but my views weren’t really being tested either. And by 2006, I didn’t live in Utah. There has always been a strain of resentment within Utah among those who feel that their views are overridden by the Church in the public sphere.
A recent study published by Ryan Cragun using Qualtrics data describes the shrinking majority of Mormons in Utah. While the Church reported that 60% of Utah residents were Mormons in 2019, this study shows that only 42% of Utah residents self-identify as Mormons. That’s a big difference! But it’s also not indicative of an 18% drop in 4 years, if that was your first thought. The Church reports based on membership rolls, not on attendance (as most other Christian churches do, particularly because baptism is considered transferable between many sects), nor on self-identification (as polling usually does). If you haven’t set foot in a Mormon church in decades, but didn’t bother to officially resign, the Church will continue to count and report you as a member until 110 years after your date of birth. In fact, the report shows that the Church’s method may be overcounting membership by as high as 50%, and in one county, the Church reported more members than there were residents of the entire county.
While Mormons are no longer the majority, that doesn’t mean that it isn’t the largest group in the state, but it does bring into question the outsize political influence the Church wields in a state that it no longer represents. A different study, done by Pew, was based on research done in 2007 and 2014. These results were re-published by the Church in a story in the Deseret News in August of 2023, perhaps because the results were much more favorable to the Church. This study showed 55% of Utah residents stating that they were Mormon and was about Utah’s unusually high percentage of weekly church-goers. That earlier Pew study had already identified (10 years ago!) shifts in the political landscape of Utahns that revealed that many of the Church’s conservative positions were no longer majoritarian in the state:
- 54% of Utahns self-identified as Republican. 46% considered themselves either Democrats or independent / no affiliation. 45% considered themselves conservative. 51% said they were either moderate or liberal. Attitudes about the role of government did lean conservative, though (66% preferred smaller government with fewer services; 53% said that aid to the poor did more harm than good).
- In 2014, Abortion was nearly a 50/50 divide with 47% believing it should be legal in all or most cases, while 51% took the opposite view. I’d be extremely surprised if this hasn’t changed after Dobbs in ways that would surprise Church leaders.
- 58% of Utahns believed that homosexuality should be accepted. 35% said it should be discouraged (which still feels high to me, but nowhere near where the Church wants it to be given their policies and rhetoric). 51% supported gay marriage–in 2014! By 2022, this had exploded to 72% support for gay marriage in the state, according to a Dan & Jones poll.
- In 2014, only 42% were opposed to stricter environmental laws & regulations, vs. 51% who said they were worth the cost. That’s certainly going to be higher given the eroding Salt Lake crisis. You can read more about the rapidly shifting attitudes of Utahns regarding climate change here.
It’s not surprising that the Church would continue to publish ten year old stats that make their heavy-handed political influence in the state seem less inappropriate. In the 2014 data, 22% of respondents identified as “Nones” or no religious affiliation, and that was the second largest non-Mormon demographic by far (7% identified as mainline Protestant). Based on Cragun’s data, that’s the group that is really gaining ground. It’s a national trend, but particularly true for those who leave the Mormon church, most of whom do not convert to other faiths, instead leaving religion altogether. So, why the shift? Cragun’s study points to 3 factors that have caused a rapid decline:
Secularization. This refers to religion waning in importance in people’s lives and is noted in the rise of those claiming “None” as their religious affiliation. Compared to other sects, Mormon retention rates (those who were Mormon at age 12 and still claim it as adults) and “secularization” rates (those raised Mormon who now state “no religion”) look similar.
- Mormons: 67.3% retention / 24% secularization
- Catholics: 62.3% retention / 20% secularization
- Non-denominational Christian: 55.6% retention / 22% secularization
- Other Christian: 48% retention / 22% secularization
Fertility. While Mormon family size is still larger than national averages, that difference has dramatically shrunk in the last few years, from 20 births per 1000 people to 14 births per 1000. Mormon women are having fewer children, and Hispanic immigrants moving to Utah have higher birth rates which has further shifted the non-LDS percentage. Mormon birth rates are now approaching parity with non-Mormon averages.
Migration. There are many people moving to Utah from elsewhere, mostly from California. Most of these new state residents are not LDS. Additionally, many church members have migrated out of the state during this influx.
At the aggregate level, the church is losing its ability to influence behavior in neighborhoods, workplaces, and civic organizations. This in turn makes it easier for Mormons who are questioning their faith to leave it behind without social penalties. The social costs of leaving the church in an era of large Mormon majorities is well-documented.
From Cragun’s report, page 177
Based on the people I know in Utah and their families and friends, it doesn’t surprise me that Mormons are now a minority in the state. Personally, I think that’s a good thing. Power corrupts, and nothing corrupts quite so much as being an unopposed and unopposable majority. Especially when it comes to creating public policy, persuasion and discussion should be how things get resolved, not a phone call to the Church Office Building who don’t even represent the membership, and certainly not the interests of the non-LDS people in the state.
- Do you find these survey results surprising? Are they similar to your own observations?
- Do you think the Church has an outsized influence in Utah politics? Do you see that shifting?
- Do you prefer when the Church is in the majority or minority?
- Do you see a decline in the social pressure to remain affiliated with the Church as more people leave?
- Do those you know who have left join other churches or choose to be unaffiliated?
Discuss.
Wheat & Tares 
One of the dangers in pushing around your power when you’re in the majority is that someday you might be in the minority. This is what we are starting to see in Utah with LDS. But what’s holding back real reform is that LDS candidates still win the great majority of elections outside of Salt Lake City*. So until we have a Utah legislature that truly reflects Utah’s population in terms of religious preference, we’ll continue to have LDS-friendly laws on the books. And the Church will continue to push their weight around. But hopefully we are well beyond the peak of LDS influence in Utah state politics.
*It’s hard to envision a non-LDS Utah governor or an LDS mayor of SLC
By itself, the huge disparity between the Church’s reported population percentage and the self-reported LDS percentage in Utah is quite telling, and is deserving of it’s own post and analysis. Recently, similar statistical disparities have emerged in other countries with religion questions on their national census (Canada, Mexico and Australia come to mind, but correct me if I’m wrong) in which, invariably, the Church’s reported numbers of it’s own claimed membership in each country is much, much higher than the country’s census reports of self-identified Latter-day Saints. There is a lot to unpack about there about the Church grossly inflating it’s own statistics, counting dead people until they turn 115, counting generations of lukewarm converts who never showed up after baptism (which brings up a whole other discussion about predatory quick-baptism missionary efforts over the years), the fact that the majority of total LDS membership is completely inactive, that the Church deliberately makes it very easy to join but very difficult and humiliating to voluntarily leave, and so on. This kind of reporting from the Church is, in my opinion, dishonest and misleading, especially since there is no question that the Q15 know the real numbers (about the Church’s membership and wealth), but deliberately keep them hidden from the rank and file. I’m willing to give the Brethren the benefit of the doubt here, and assume that they are acting purely out of fear and unwilling to deal with the reality of a receding Church, rather than acting with faith that members can accept the truth.
I’ve never lived in Utah, only visited occasionally for the sake of in-laws and extended family, so the idea of a single denomination having outsized political influence in any U.S. state or region just doesn’t sit right with me. In the CA city where I grew up, Mormons made up less than 2% of the population, but were well-respected throughout the community, and regarded for honesty and integrity. Part of that respect came from the fact that we had zero political power, we knew our place, and though we had quirky beliefs we didn’t try to force them on our neighbors, nor did they try to hard to force theirs on us. Then Prop 8 happened, and changed everything. The Church attempted to apply some Utah-style political meddling in California, and it cost the Church nearly all of it’s credibility and social capital there. The shifting of the Church toward minority status in Utah is going to be even uglier, because people who have enjoyed power and privilege for generations will not give it up quietly.
I much prefer a quiet, respected minority Church to a loud, politically grandstanding influential Church. That seems like the kind of Church Jesus preferred as well.
When I first read the article in the SL Tribune about LDS not being the majority, I wondered where the numbers came from. I believe the Tribune’s numbers and their polling methodology. It also got me thinking about the numbers the church uses. The church is not open about its finances and tithing, it’s not open about its processes coming up with “revelations” or callings or even policies and procedures or how it even determined what would be in the general handbook of instructions. There is never any conferring at the general conference but always one talk after another without any discussion except online in unofficial social forums, which we are often told we aren’t to be a part of anyway. I’m sure that many leaders in the church know exactly where the church stands but the culture of the “one and only true church” prevents any serious reflection let alone action.
These numbers, and the implications for Utah politics (which was the first thing prog-Mos and ex-Mos said about them in Twitter when I first saw the link to Cragun’s report), tell me that maybe ex-Mos should much more strongly consider officially resigning. I posted one year ago about all the reasons people quit the church but stay on the member records: https://wheatandtares.org/2023/01/25/why-ex-mos-dont-resign/. But knowing that the Church uses these member rolls to justify their political influence gives me pause. Remaining on the member rolls, in Utah specifically, makes it easier for the Church to justify its undue influence, whether through propoganda via Deseret News and other church outlets, or for leaders to feel justified to themselves. Cragun’s data showed that the Church in Utah is no longer appealing to converts and has been relying on fertility to make up for the losses in both retention and lower conversion rates. Now, you can say that both retention and conversion declines are a sign of secularization, or you can say that the message isn’t connecting with younger people and those raised elsewhere because the content isn’t strong. If religion can’t beat secularization, it probably shouldn’t. Of course, across the nation, this is an issue fueling political fights with some on the right feeling that their “way of life” is threatened, meaning their religious supremacy and ability to influence public policies. But hey, that’s what democracy looks like. If your ideas don’t persuade, you don’t get to rule.
Cragun’s report also pointed out the role of the large groups of ex-Mormons in Utah who have created a more welcoming environment to outsiders moving to the state for jobs or cheaper housing. The more visible former church members are, the more non-Mormons will feel that they aren’t moving to a religious enclave, surrounded by fanatical neighbors hellbent on converting them or ostracizing their kids. I’ve noticed over the last few years the proliferation of alcoholic beverages in Utah that poke fun at polygamy or use temple-adjacent language. These types of efforts seem to be creating fertile ground for non-LDS migration. They make it look like, yeah, Mormonism is weird, but not everyone is Mormon, and you can make fun of it without fear of reprisal.
To me, this open critique of Mormon culture is evidence that it is *not* truly a cult, although I’ve also frequently observed that some families and some members certainly act like it is. Regarding resigning, a friend of the blog mentioned that her sister had to get a notary to sign off on her resignation letter, per the Church’s requirements (she didn’t want to meet with the bishop which was the alternative), and the notary was so alarmed by this high hurdle to exit that he immediately asked if she was physically safe, and was she afraid of retribution from the cult she was leaving. Normal churches don’t require notarized requests to resign. But having said that, the Church does not exact retribution on former members as cults often do. They are just making it a pain in the ass to resign to discourage people from doing it. It certainly raises the “cult” spidey senses to outsiders who encounter it.
Long-term Utah resident here. I can’t even begin to describe the cognitive dissonance I’ve noticed in active LDS members about this decline in membership and the changing demographics. They simply don’t get it. And I doubt the upper hierarchy has come to terms with it either.
I do have some hope that we’ll see a kinder, gentler church in the next few decades. But I also fear an ethnocentric pushback and cleansing that could come as well. Nothing sparks an inquisition like fear and the potential loss of power.
I know the Church has a history of inflating its numbers, but I must must say I raised an eyebrow (only figuratively – I’m not The Rock) when I saw that 43% figure. I’m not sure how to explain this huge disparity in numbers, but I have an idea.
When I lived in Rexburg, I had a boss who had zero mental or emotional connection to the church and did not attend at all. I have little doubt that if he were asked in an anonymous survey he would say he is not Mormon (though he does remain on the records). However, he managed to project enough Mormon-ness to to stay within the good ol’ boy SE Idaho Mormon network. (I’m not knocking him. He did what he had to do).
I know SE Idaho is more insulated than Utah, and to be fair, I only skimmed the article linked in the OP, but to me the study doesn’t account for the many Public Mormons, Private Nones in Utah – like my former boss – who would have no issue anonymously self-idenifying as non-Mormon, but wouldn’t dare do so publicly. Again, I’m not knocking it. We all have different versions of ourselves for different spheres of our lives. But the fact is (IMO), if one is publicly Mormon, one is effectively Mormon, no matter how one self-identifies. Would taking this into account bring the Utah Mormon percentage up to 55-60%? Probably not, but I could see it being closer to 50.
Do you find these survey results surprising? Are they similar to your own observations?
No I don’t fin them surprising. The Church over-inflates its numbers and even the most strident TBM knows it, having lived through it either as a missionary or in relation to less active friends and family members still on church records. The question is and always will be how much it’s inflated. We may never know.
Do you prefer when the Church is in the majority or minority?
Minority.
Do you see a decline in the social pressure to remain affiliated with the Church as more people leave?
Interesting question. Where I live actually very few have left. Our exit was more challenging for us as a result. I have a never-Mormon coworker who moved to Lehi UT of all places because he was tired of LA prices. We caught up recently, having not seen each other since before COVID. He reports that living in UT as a never-Mormon is just fine. Everyone is nice, shopping on Sundays is a treat, and most of his Mormon neighbors will enjoy a drink socially (not just coffee, alcohol too), attend church sporadically, consume the same media he does, and don’t seem at all strict with the dress code I described to him. So I do think in Mormon central the younger generations are simply doing Mormonism their way and really don’t care what authority thinks about it. There legitimately seems to be less social pressure from when I was raised in Utah in the 90’s.
Do those you know who have left join other churches or choose to be unaffiliated?
Other than a friend from HS who now attends Community of Christ, pretty much everyone else I know enjoys the longer weekends.
As you said, “… particularly true for those who leave the Mormon church, most of whom do not convert to other faiths, instead leaving religion altogether.” That’s a little surprising. I think LDS who stop attending LDS Church, whether with a formal exit or not, would be *great* Christians in any other denomination.
First, they’d be welcoming to the Ex-Mormons, sort of a moral victory to bag an Ex-Mo and always nice to have a Mormon in class who can answer “what about those Mormons?” questions. Second, coming from a high-demand church, you probably look like an all-star Prebyterian or Baptist or Lutheran. What can I do? Do I get a calling? Where do I pay my tithing? What do I bring to the potluck? Sure, I’ve taught youth classes before. Sure, I can come help clean the church once a month.
More seriously, if most LDS who leave the Church have no interest in any other Christian denomination (or Buddhist or whatever), that is a sad commentary on the Church’s approach to being Christian. It suggests that, at some level, LDS aren’t really Christian, they’re something else.
Dave B. said, “More seriously, if most LDS who leave the Church have no interest in any other Christian denomination (or Buddhist or whatever), that is a sad commentary on the Church’s approach to being Christian. It suggests that, at some level, LDS aren’t really Christian, they’re something else.”
I’m not sure that’s an entirely fair characterization.
If you grew up in the LDS Church, you grew up “knowing” that all other churches are in apostasy. As an adult, you might consciously reject that belief, but it’s going to leave an instinctive response that makes attending another denomination more difficult.
More seriously, I don’t think you can assume that leaving the LDS way of being Christian means you would or could then find another denomination’s way of being Christian works for you. Just one example of the challenge: despite quite a bit of effort, I haven’t found a good way of adopting the traditions around Advent or Holy Week into my life. I think they are important traditions that undoubtedly add to the spirituality of those seasons. Unfortunately, they aren’t MY traditions.
Were I to leave, I don’t think I would attend a different church. I think I would follow the the first half of the Come Follow Me program: home centered study. That is currently very rewarding for me.
Good post. The creative accounting that the church engages in involving its numbers is proof of two things: 1) It’s really nervous about declining numbers and is engaging in a number of unethical practices to hide those numbers and 2) It’s also just as clear that the church has no idea what to do about said declining numbers. The church is a large and semi-functional bureaucracy and as such, it takes a long time to even steer the ship in a slightly different direction, much less reverse course. The church could loosen up some requirements, lower the supposedly high bar of member buy in, and change direction on a number of issues on which it is clearly morally wrong (women and the priesthood, LGBTQ issues, etc.), but it can’t do so quickly and nimbly for a number of reasons, not least of which are the concerns about alienating the True Believers whose tithing and ubiquitous presence in the leadership ranks mean they have a significant stake in keeping things as they are.
All of that is to say that I think the church’s minority status in Utah (and continued minority status in the rest of the world) is ultimately a good thing, because I’d like to see more institutional and individual LDS humility. However, as a few commenters have noted and as has been said for years on this blog, while the church may be concerned about the decline in active members, it seems much more likely that leadership will continue on its path of making its “unchanging, eternal” doctrine a hill to die on, rather than actually changing its prejudicial and bigoted beliefs. I therefore predict that the humility required to be the “quiet, respected minority Church” that Jack Hughes mentions will continue to be sorely lacking and I instead expect to see more retrenchment, more self-righteous crowing about “the Lord is separating the wheat from the chaff” regarding membership departures, and a doubling-down on the kind of cleansing that Old Man mentions. The really sad part is that the church has such an opportunity to change course and be a lot more welcoming and likely grow its ranks significantly, but since it’s never chosen to do so in the past, it’s hard to believe it would all of a sudden start now.
A few years ago the Community of Christ began a Seekers ministry aimed primarily at LDS members distancing themselves in some way from the church. This has not resulted in a significant increase in CofC baptisms but has proven to be more of a waystation than a destination. Some of this, of course, is due to the relative lack CofC congregations in the Intermountain West. But I think it also follows a more general trend of people distancing themselves from active participation in institutional religion. The pandemic probably just sped up the process. Sexual and financial scandals throughout US Christianity, along with strident political activity, highlight the causes. And maybe some folks are just tired and worn out by too much church.
Dave B,
You are correct that it’s a sad commentary on the Church’s approach to Christianity. The God of Mormonism is a jerk and I think that’s why those unpacking Mormonism unpack Jesus and God along with Joseph Smith and Brigham Young.
Another important point is that I spent 40 years being told what to do. I’m capable of either making my own decisions now or know what resources to look to for guidance. I have no idea how other faith traditions work. But it is my impression that there is always someone in authority willing to tell people what to do. No thank you.
Dave B has it correct about why people who leave Mormonism do not join a different church. Mormons think they are Christian, but their form of Christianity doesn’t translate well into larger Christianity. Some basic beliefs are just too different. Other Christians believe Christ is God, not a different God, or part of a godhead. The atonement is just a different animal when it is the son of God paying a debt that we owe to God, rather than God himself who erases the debt. The concept of a God we are not capable of understanding is lost when we attempt to explain how God the Father, Son, and Holy Ghost are three separate beings, rather than one God who is all. Yeah, it is more logical, but it is not the same mystery, or the same God. It is really a different religion, and while Mormons may want to claim Christian status, not believing that Jesus is the one and only God just plain disqualifies Mormons as Christians from every perspective except inside Mormonism where they misunderstand the differences.
As for why the Community of Christ is a stopover rather than a permanent home, once a person rejects the whole idea that Joseph Smith was a prophet, they become a better version of Mormonism, but still too much the same.
And PWS has a believer’s view of what he would do. But he is correct that switching to a different version of Christianity would give different traditions that he would find very foreign.
So, as a person who has left to the point that I do not consider myself Mormon, why haven’t removed my name from the records? And why do I not attend a different church?
My husband has requested that I not remove my name because he still believes in the sealing and knows that a loving God understands that I have good reason to leave, so he doesn’t think I am damned to hell for apostasy. He still wants that sealing in effect.
And it is easier for relatives to accept “inactive” than “apostate”. So as long as I don’t have my name removed or join a different church, I am just a lazy inactive. They understand that. They are terrified that I might actually reject the church and become apostate (what they don’t know won’t hurt them) and having your name removed is the same as excommunication (unlike any other denomination of Christianity). So, to keep the relatives happy, I do nothing and allow the church its stupid game of claiming me when I do not claim it. Joining another church is also apostasy and horrible in my relatives eyes. Mormonism is very cult like in the attitude of believers toward unbelievers, so that is a big part of not having my name removed.
And there is the damage Mormonism did. I am never going to trust organized religion again. I see too much corruption in all of them to believe that Mormonism is the only bad apple. When you start questioning the idea that some other person knows more about God than you do, how do you trust to put yourself back under their supposed “authority”. No, organized religion is not to be trusted. I have been burned badly once and I won’t again. Besides, I have not found a church where I would feel at home without my husband with me.
No, JackMormon status is fine, keeps the relatives happy, and I can stay emotionally away from people telling me that I am not good enough for God.
The church’s political influence in Utah won’t change in any meaningful way until individual communities are diluted enough to send non-Mormons to SLC. That may take a while. Until then, we get a legislature that is mostly Mormon with a minority that represents SLC.
I don’t think it is an exaggeration to say that, for all the reasons cited above, the church is in crisis. It is easier to leave when you see it happening frequently around you. No less than my own mother, a diehard member her whole life with little to no actual knowledge of the church’s history or doctrines/policies (she looked at me blankly when I mentioned the lasting impact and contradictory nature of D&C 132), told me she sees people leaving in droves, and this is in Davis County. That fact completely upends her worldview and the promise that the church would always grow and grow and eventually fill the earth. It’s given her pause, but she’s old enough that no dramatic actions will be taken.
That the church jukes the membership numbers was always strong evidence to me that it is not run by intellectually honest people. It says that growth rates and glowing reports from years past were never what they were purported to be. And it reveals that what was once thought to be a thriving and expanding American sect is really just a mostly insignificant organization (outside the Mordor) with little to sell these days. I believe in karma, and this is the natural result of being less than forthright.
In our New Year’s Eve lesson, Kevin Pearson reassured us Utahns that the Church has never been stronger in Utah. I don’t know about you, but I’m sleeping a lot better after hearing that.
Still, as much as I enjoy the Baghdad Bob style of reporting, I would love to see more actual numbers. I mean, would it kill the Church to release some meaningful stats, like sacrament meeting attendance?
My sister retired and moved to Hurricane (a haven for retirees, especially from California). She moved into a development with 80 new houses. Only 12 are occupied by Mormons. Almost like living out of state.
As someone who lives in Utah and served their mission in a different part of Utah, I do not find the numbers surprising.
A couple of thoughts:
1. The % that is Mormon varies heavily by neighborhood/city/county. As a missionary, I covered stakes which had wards with 20% activity rates, and other wards with 90% activity rates. Utah county will generally be higher %, while SLC and Summit counties will generally be lower.
2. As a missionary I observed that the lower % Mormon an area is, the easier it is for people to step away from the Church
3. Politics in Utah are probably going to get ugly as this transition continues. There is going to be a lot of resentment between Active Mormons and ExMormons
4. #3 is going to be made worse because Active Mormons and Exmormons usually have completely different social circles. I know plenty of Mormons who are in complete denial about the transition since they don’t interact with any Exmormons
5. There is a huge generational gap here as well. A lot of the older Mormons I know assume everyone is Mormon. Younger active Mormons are generally more circumspect about this, probably because they have siblings and friends who have left.
6. The Church will still have outsized political influence because Mormons tend to block vote/have broadly similar politics. Generational turnover and more non-mormons will change that, but that is still probably a decade away
I agree with others that the politics will get ugly as the church continues to try to maintain its grip on legislative power. There are already several instances of the LDS-influenced Republican legislature trying to solidify their power in the face of changing demographics in the state.
I’m not personally surprised by the survey results, it’s pretty clear that things are changing in the state and will continue to do so whether the LDS church likes it or not.
Absolutely, and there is a lot of fear about it being diluted by the church and the Republican party alike. It’s already started to get politically ugly with things like the 2020 abortion trigger law, and gerrymandering. In 2018 voters approved an initiative to create an independent redistricting commission to make sure maps weren’t drawn to favor a particular party. 18 months later, the Republican legislature gutted the initiative, then chopped Salt Lake County into four separate districts to disperse Democrat voters and dilute the political power of Salt Lake County. When the Utah Supreme Court got involved, the legislature essentially gave them the middle finger.
The politics are going to get uglier as change becomes more inevitable – the people will demand to be represented.
I have no problem with the LDS church having a strong presence, but I think it also needs to be tempered and humbled a bit.
In some places like Salt Lake County and Summit County but not in others, especially in Utah County – the entire social structure still depends very heavily on church activity.
Most who have left the LDS church have remained unaffiliated. Some still feel religious but are at odds with the Church leadership’s stance on social issues, its shady financial activity, and politics. I will also say that while many people are leaving the church or becoming inactive, many others are staying in the church and just privately ignoring the questionable bits coming from the gerontocracy.
I am interested to see what happens when Oaks gets into first chair and tries to bring down his ideological hammer…it probably won’t go well for the LDS church.
A small data point, but one that I think is representative based on anecdotal evidence: I live in Utah County in an area where the percentage of LDS members is shockingly high (somewhere in the neighborhood of 85-90% within the boundaries of our stake). As a ward clerk, I do the sacrament meeting attendance every week; we averaged about 57% attendance for the calendar year of 2023…and that includes sizable (100+ additional attendees) bumps for Christmas and three enormous missionary farewells. Take those out, and we are around 50-54% each week. Those numbers drop in the second hour–maybe not considerably, but definitely a noticeable diaspora out of the building. Those statistics are, to me, pretty telling about the attrition even in the heart of the Church’s membership.
As for Utah politics, one of the issues is that incumbency is a huge factor in politics at every level. The U.S. Congress has about a 97% retention rate, and state/local elections are similarly high (I do not know those numbers off of the top of my head). That means that even with changing demographics and membership identification, it could take years (or even decades) to alter the ideological makeup of the state legislature and make real change to some of the more Mormon-centric laws.
Finally, I do think that most of the people I know who have left the Church (including some immediate family members) remain unaffiliated, if for no other reason than they enjoy the freedom that non-activity/non-membership conveys. Frankly, that would be my choice if I ever left–committing time/effort to another religious organization after spending your life in meetings and callings (on Sundays and during the week) seems a little masochistic to me.
I’m 41 and have lived about three-quarters of my life in Utah. I assume the retention rate for my “peers” (people my age who grew up LDS in Utah) is about 50%. I arrive at that number because I am mildly surprised when I see an old friend from college or high school and they are still active. My feelings put the retention rate at about 40% (hence the mild surprise at activity) but I believe I’m biased toward remembering the more “interesting” result (leaving) and I over remember those events.
When folks complain about the lack of transparency around church membership numbers, I’m always a little surprised that no one has started a grassroots effort to measure it themselves. There are a dozen or more people in every ward that have access to all the information, which means if even 1% of active “leadership” members are agreeable to sharing that sort of information, you could build a dataset of over 10% of all wards, which would be plenty to have good confidence in extrapolating the numbers. Yes, those with the access might be less likely to participate in such a rebellious act of data-sharing, but I’m hardly your typical “leadership” member, and I still manage to get high profile callings like “Assistant EQ Secretary” that comes with access to enough relevant information. To that end, here are my suburban SL County ward numbers: 241 homes (Utah, lol), 187 households in the ward (0.78 households/home), 481 total members, 205 average sacrament meeting attendance (42%).