Funny thing about world wars: they just kind of sneak up on you. World War 1 didn’t start with a big meeting where the Great Powers of the day decided to declare war on each other and enter into a four-year conflict that would damage all of them, some mortally. No, it started small. In the years preceding 1914 there were some short little wars in the Balkans, then an assassination in Sarajevo and a war of words and threats between Austria and Serbia. Austria, a Great Power in decline anxious to show it was not weak (it was), decided it had to militarily attack Serbia despite generous concessions offered by Serbia. Russia backed Serbia. Germany backed Austria. Existing alliances dragged other countries into the fight. The United States did not enter the fray until 1917. World War 1 started small but just kept growing until it was the Great War. It only became WW1 in retrospect, after the second one.
Likewise with the Second World War. It didn’t start in December 1941, when America was dragged into it after Pearl Harbor. It didn’t start on September 1, 1939 when German troops rolled into Poland just after England signed a “guarantee of mutual assistance” to Poland. In Europe, it was preceded by territory grabs by Germany (Czechoslovakia and Austria) that made the eventual outbreak of hostilities almost certain. In Asia, it started in 1937 when Japanese troops attacked in Northern China. Again, it started small and just kept growing until by 1942 it was truly a global war. No one planned it. It just sort of happened.
So here’s the question I’m leading up to: Has World War 3 started and we just haven’t realized it yet? Some of the same things are present today: a declining Great Power (Russia). Territorial claims and land grabs (Russia again). An alliance system that might trigger expanded conflict (NATO). I just finished reading The Russo-Ukrainian War: The Return of History (W. W. Norton & Co., 2023) by Serhii Plokhy, a history prof at Harvard. It is not encouraging. Ten years from now, I might be writing (if we’re all still around): “It started small, with a Russian land grab of Crimea in 2014, then skirmishes in the eastern provinces of Ukraine, then a full-blown invasion in 2022. Belarus joined the conflict in 2024, followed by thousands of NATO ‘military advisors’ sent to Ukraine to provide training on additional weapons systems. The United States and China did not send in troops until 2025. It was only after a dozen nukes were exchanged in 2026 that a cease fire was negotiated. That fragile truce is still in place today, in 2033.” Of course, it could be a couple of hundred nukes instead of a dozen. Once you start hitting the button, it’s hard to stop. Not all the players are rational. It could happen tomorrow, like a thief in the night.
I wrote a post five days after the Russians invaded Ukraine, The Dogs of War. It’s worth re-reading. No one except maybe a few Ukrainians expected Ukraine to beat back the initial Russian assault on Kiev and then conduct a largely successful defense from continued attacks, fortified by support from NATO countries. But they did, and here we are.
So here are some questions, some general and some churchy.
First, as already asked, has World War 3 started and we just haven’t realized it yet? The thing is there just doesn’t seem to be an exit plan for either combatant. Ukraine at this point, having successfully defended itself and gained some territory back, cannot easily agree to permanently cede territory to Russia. The West will keep funneling military aid to Ukraine to continue its defense. Ukraine won’t quit because, for Ukraine, it’s an existential struggle. Russia, like Austria before World War 1, is a declining power that can’t afford to look weak by retreating and ending the war. And for Putin, it’s an existential struggle as well. The war might end if Putin is deposed or dies, but whoever succeeds Putin after a chaotic transition will likely be a hardliner (all the moderates have fled, been killed, or been jailed). It is much more likely the conflict will continue and expand. If through skilled diplomacy it stops short of WW3, we can count ourselves lucky.
Second, how bad will the next world war be for the Church? All the missionaries go home. People focus on a lot of things besides going to meetings on Sunday and writing tithing checks. Some people “get religion” in perilous times, but every normal routine gets displaced and assets get redirected if not lost. Think back to the huge disruptions Covid caused for normal LDS operations. That’s nothing compared to WW3.
Third, Whatcha gonna do? Serious question. If a hurricane is bearing down on your coastal town, you know what to do: nail plywood over the windows and get out of town if you can. If a new strain of Covid sweeps the country, you know what to do: get another booster shot, limit social contact, wear a mask. But what do you do personally if you see WW3 coming down the tracks? Join the Marines? Quick store up food and batteries and needed medication and cash? Repent for those lingering sins you haven’t bothered to deal with? Move to Montana or maybe further north? New Zealand maybe? Build a bomb shelter in the backyard? (Lots of Americans did this in the 1950s.) Read a few dystopian novels to get a feel for what life on planet Earth might be like in ten years? Re-read the last ten years of Conference talks to see what relevant counsel is given on this looming danger (hint: little or none, you’re better off using your time digging that bomb shelter in the backyard).
How about the Second Coming? Serious question, for those who take it seriously. Jesus didn’t save us when the Black Plague swept across Europe and killed a third of the population. Jesus didn’t step in when the Holocaust targeted millions of Jews (and Jesus was a Jew, they are His people) in Europe in World War 3. What makes anyone think Jesus will save us from our own stupidity if we sleepwalk into World War 3 and unleash death and destruction on each other? If He hasn’t come back by now, maybe He’s not coming back at all.
Any good news? Yes, there is some good news. There’s an adult in the White House, and President Biden has done an outstanding job supporting Zelensky and generating united support for Ukraine from NATO allies. Perhaps continued support for Ukraine and eventual diplomacy can steer us out of a disastrous expanded war. That’s really the best outcome.
So here are the questions to ponder as WW3 roars down the tracks:
- Has WW3 started and we just haven’t acknowledged it yet?
- How bad will WW3 be for the Church?
- Whatcha gonna do personally? Nothing? Just hope it doesn’t happen?
- How about the Second Coming? Ten years? A hundred? A thousand? Permanently deferred?
Wheat & Tares 
I can’t figure out who this would be when you said, “There’s an adult in the White House” I guess you are joking.
I also was wondering who this “adult in the White House” that the author mentioned in this colum was cachemagic.
Perhaps it was it was a joke that went over my head as well.
Between the end of WWII and 2023 there have been several conflicts and wars that could have expanded into some kind of WWIII. The Ukraine situation is just the latest iteration. We have to avoid presentism…thinking that today is so much worse than other times in recent history. I think an objective observer would say that the closest we came to WWIII was in the 60s with the Cuban Missile Crisis, Viet Naum, and the various conflicts in the Middle East.
All we can hope for is that the concept of mutually assured destruction (MAD) prevents either side from taking things too far. That’s the only reason, for example, that Taiwan is still semi-independent.
I highly recommend reading the book “The End of the World is Just the Beginning” by Peter Zeihan. The author explains in detail how our inter-connected world is about to change rapidly. The ‘next world’ will be characterized by “countries and regions that will have no choice but to make their own goods, grow their own food, secure their own energy, fight their own battles, and do it all with populations that are both shrinking and aging”. The book is very well researched and credible.
Adding unstable world leaders (e.g., Putin and potentially DJT) to this mix significantly increases the likelihood of WW3. In the event of such a cataclysmic conflict, I predict institutional Mormonism would react with characteristic caution and restraint.
Certainly, the Church learned lessons from their COVID response. Although recommending vaccines and cancelling services were sound policies, members became politicized and, in many cases, continue to act irrationally (see LDS Freedom Forum). Based on this experience, the Church will be reluctant to take quick, decisive action.
When (not if) WW3 begins it will be disastrous for everyone – including the Church. It will make our internal political differences look shallow in comparison.
Do not forget that WWI was started by Kaiser Wilhelm II, one of the most dangerous lunatics the World has ever seen. He ignored the counsel of senior leadership in the deranged belief that his forces could conquer France in a matter of weeks. In that sense, WWI was completely predictable.
Are things any different today? Well, we have another dangerous lunatic, V. Putin, in charge of a corrupt nation. He likewise thought that his forces could capture another nation in a matter of weeks. The decision of other World leaders to ignore Putin’s build up to war shows that they have learned nothing from history.
How bad will things be for the Church if we have WWIII? Bad. Extremely bad.
The Church has tried to balance Putin’s ego with the need to stand up for peace. The results have been disastrous. Putin has waged war, while the Church looks wishy washy for not condemning him.
If this failure to take a stand is repeated in WWIII, members will believe that there is no point to taking a stand on moral issues. They will descend into licentiousness and debauchery because they will have no hope. Ironically, those who happen to own honky tonks and Dairy Queen’s will find that business has never been better.
Interesting topic. I was thinking of how much WWII disrupted the work of the Church, as an entire generation of missionary-age males were otherwise occupied, as well as some complicated history related to Nazi appeasement in Germany at the time. But the years following the war were some of the most prolific for Church growth, certainly in the U.S., but also to gain important footholds in the reconstructing areas of Europe and Japan. It’s no accident that Europe’s first temple was built in Switzerland in the 1950s, as the Church leaders of the day, having lived through both world wars, likely saw value of staking a claim in the famously neutral country.
And about that Nazi appeasement–the Church is (and always has been) run by human beings and is not always on the right side of history, and may not necessarily be an innocent bystander in future global conflicts. It causes me to think twice when I hear of the Church’s efforts to make inroads in China or Russia, like vague temple announcements that never come to fruition. Even the PRC government was baffled by that one.
Well, you started to make some good points, so I kept reading. Unfortunately, you went completely off the rails. First, we are all still here and we won those conflicts because of Jesus Christ and His blessings for this nation. We’ve had relative peace because of His blessings for our nation, making us the strongest and most secure nation of earth. But we have lost that security by forgetting The God Of This Nation Who Is Jesus Christ. Christians are basically persecuted in America now. Secondly, we have, as a nation, fully departed from His teachings and are pushing, and legislating the ACTUAL ABOMINATION THAT MAKETH DESOLATE! And the man-puppet leading this Cultural Revolution is the one you call an adult!? Good Grief! He’s the one bumbling, and fumbling, us into WWIII! Crimea was lost because of Obama weakness! Putin felt emboldened to invade Ukraine because of Biden and his pathetic surrender of hard-fought, Afghanistan! And the Church will be just fine, we are entitled to the blessings of heaven and His Divine Protection. The safest place in the country is where the Church is strongest, THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS! All of the prophesies are coming to pass, and the greatest manifestations of God’s power are, in fact, just around the corner. So just stop electing Marxist ‘adults’ and we, as a nation, will survive this and get through it.
Are we in WWIII, It’s hard to say. Unlike the clearness of looking at the past, the present is much more murky. Still, we’ve had close calls in Cuba in 1960, and Afghanistan with both Russia and the USA using it as a practice war field and both coming up a bit short.
How will the church do in WWIII. I don’t think it will do very well at all. Besides its failures with Covid-19 with masks and vaccines, there are too many members in the church that can’t tell if there is an adult in the White House that weighs down the Church with caution to act with any strong stance of standard bearing.
Personally, I’m going to keep living my life, loving my family, and trying to ignore those members who think the last president in the White House was an adult or worse yet, God’s anointed.
As for the second coming. No one knows. Live like it could be tomorrow but don’t expect it in your lifetime. It will be when it will be. We shouldn’t use it as an excuse to ignore anything like climate change or an all-destructive war. There is nothing that says the millennium could not come about with righteousness instead of war. If you drive to church in your jacked-up truck with a bumper sticker about Guns and Jesus are you really following the Savior and his teachings?
WWIII or not, the world is in sad shape.
To cachemagic & Chloe
I invite you to go beyond the borders of your bubble. Investigate. Find out if there are any genuinely good things that the Biden administration has done. Anything that has strengthened the middle class. Anything that has improved the economic outlook for the middle class.
You might be surprised.
Church leaders have been far too “OK” with Putin for my taste, and it appears to be related to the anti-LGBT stance of the Russian Orthodox Church. When your main goal in life is to play “smear the queer” on the world stage, you end up with some very bad political bedfellows. Plus, there are a whole lot of far right wing church members who are susceptible to the pro-Russia messages of the current GOP. Elisa’s series on the WCF’s ties to Putin should be disturbing to any church member, but my guess is that 99.9999% of them don’t know about it, and if everyone knew about it, at least a plurality would be “meh, whatever the brethren do is OK by me.”
I have had this same thought about whether this Russian aggression turns into WW3, which is why my own view is that we need to arm the Ukranians to the teeth, and Europe needs to do likewise. It is encouraging to see all the NATO requests as a result. As we should all recall, Trump suggested pulling us out of NATO. He’s a danger to the entire world, not just American democracy. He is not a serious person, just a narcissist surrounded by advisors who are willing to agree he weighs 215 lbs.
Or, Angela C, (and this is a radical thought) maybe the Church’s leadership is actually more concerned about the safety of the membership who live in Russia and can’t leave than they are about making geopolitical statements.
Putin has previously shown a willingness to crack down of any foreign or domestic organizations that he deems to be a threat to him, and he would have no qualms whatsoever about crushing every last vestige of the Church in Russia if given the slightest excuse. It’s easy to say that the Q15 should condemn Putin when it’s not your life that they would be putting in danger. My friend who served a mission in Russia is quite grateful that they haven’t condemned Putin and put many of the families that they taught and love in danger.
Regarding the OP reference to Biden as the adult in the White House: The levels of Trump’s juvenile, self-serving wrecklessness, cash-grab grift of any advantage he gets, a mind-numbing range of criminal behaviors, including treason, and plain stupidity were unimaginable back in the good old days of Reagan and Clinton. So yeah, we know what is meant by the reference, even though many, many people were unhappy about voting Biden into office. He has restored some stability to government that was severely challenged by the bull-in-the-china-shop administration.
I would dearly love to see the Republicans field an adult candidate for voters to choose from next year. Instead I look upon the prospect of the coming election with dread and foreboding, and the wars and rumors of wars, that exist in real time, spike those feelings. I can’t think about global warfare without also surveying the glut of nukes that also exist, armed at the ready, in the hands of blatant narcissistic killers. I don’t sleep well.
I bet the “adult in the white house” line was a callback to that NYT op-ed written by senior White House insider wrote during Trump’s first year in office (Sept 2018) to reassure the public that there were adults in the room and they were working around Trump to make sure he didn’t do anything permanent. No administration has ever been embarrassed like that before or since. The NYT is behind a paywall, so here’s a recap of the op-ed (from Business Insider) to help refresh the memories of our first two commenters:
The New York Times on Wednesday published an anonymous op-ed from a person described as a “senior Trump official” who claims there’s a “quiet resistance” within the Trump administration.
The official appears to be a man, since The Times referred to the author as “he” in a tweet.
“Many of the senior officials in [Trump’s] own administration are working diligently from within to frustrate parts of his agenda and his worst inclinations,” the unnamed official wrote. “I would know. I am one of them.”
The op-ed goes on to say that this group does not identify with the politics of the “popular ‘resistance’ of the left” and is proud of many of the administration’s accomplishments, claiming a number of its policies have already America safer and more prosperous.
But this group of officials is apparently concerned with Trump’s behavior and “impetuous” nature, and has vowed to do what it can to “preserve our democratic institutions.” The op-ed claims Trump “engages in repetitive rants” during meetings and his “impulsiveness” leads to reckless decisions that consistently have to be walked back.
The official slams Trump on everything from his approach to trade and foreign policy to his feelings on the late Sen. John McCain.
“We believe our first duty is to this country, and the president continues to act in a manner that is detrimental to the health of our republic,” the official writes.
The official contended Trump has worked against America’s fundamental ideals and said people across the government are working to “insulate their operations from his whims.”
The op-ed portrays many White House staffers as “unsung” heroes who are working against Trump’s “erratic behavior” even as they’re vilified by the media.
“It may be cold comfort in this chaotic era, but Americans should know that there are adults in the room,” the official wrote. “We fully recognize what is happening. And we are trying to do what’s right even when Donald Trump won’t.”
And to comment on the actual subject of the post, I am cautiously optimistic that WWIII won’t develop. Surely we’ve learned. Yes, I know we’ve got literal Nazis reappearing, and Putin is a horrible megalomaniac, but after so many decades without a war that covers a continent (smaller conflicts have happened), perhaps the world has grown past the idea that setting loose the dogs of war on every continent is ever a good idea. Please. I hope and pray.
Observer: That’s a very good point. Thank you.
Observer, that was behind the church’s not coming out against Hitler, and actually cooperating with his government. It may look bad to history, but we didn’t have members of the church being rounded up and taken to concentration camps either. Sometimes it is smart to keep your mouth shut.
Personally, I would like the church to condemn Putin, but then take a look at the poisonings and bombed planes that happen to those who oppose him. Standing up to Putin has a high mortality rate.
As far as getting into WWIII, Putin will move onto another country if he conquers Ukraine and chances are it will be a NATO Country, and poof, we are into WWIII. Let’s not make the mistake of WWII and think the war mongers will be satisfied with one country. Just like Hitler took over Austria, and people made excuses for it and said he had reasons for taking over and that he would be satisfied, but he promptly moved into Poland, not caring about the mutual aid agreement it had with Great Britain. Putin will not stop at Ukraine, but will move onto Sweden or Poland, not caring that they are NATO.
When all else fails, we often play the “Second Coming card,” or its close relative: “God will take care of those details when the time comes. But do we ever ask: Is it the second coming of Jesus (the Jesus of the Gospel accounts or some version of the apocalyptic Jesus of the book of Revelation?) or the :Cosmic and Eternal Christ”?
Since the treaties ending WWII were signed there has rarely been peace on earth. Consider just the past 50 years. The Vietnam war ended but the Cold war raged. Then in 1989 the Cold war ended! The Soviet Union collapsed.
And so a new war began. In 1991 the US launched Operation Desert Storm to rebuff Iraq after its invasion into Kuwait. What followed was a quarter century war with Iraq (missiles and sanctions) that destroyed the country and created a massive humanitarian crisis. Then the US invaded Afghanistan and spent 20 years occupying that country.
The US left Afghanistan and is now supporting the war in Ukraine against Russia and entertaining direct war with China (an economic war has been active for years).
The root of this ongoing world war is the question of global power. The US sees itself as the world’s policeman. It has been a very rewarding job for the USA to assume the global defense of its allies, with the allies granting the USA economic supremacy. Russia, China and the Middle East threaten American hegemony.
The US has spent the past 30 years leveling the opposition in the Middle East – essentially giving Saudi Arabia and Israel the weapons and policy to “keep the peace”. Managing Russia and China is a stickier affair.
The scriptures teach that all nations will fail. Only Zion will prosper. I believe the scriptures. War and rumour of war will be our daily condition.
Pray for those immediately suffering from war. The immorality of war is the dead and suffering are ignored by the war makers. We have video tape of then Secretary of State Madeline Albright saying in the 1990s that a half million dead Iraqi children was worth the sanctions against Iraq. We see the same callousness with the US funding of the Ukraine war. Ukrainians are dying in massive numbers, and the US policy is to keep funding the war so more Ukrainians can die. Seems awfully similar to what happened in Vietnam with the US leaders sending ever more Americans to die in a conflict the US was unwilling to win.
About Ukraine, would you be willing to have your child sent to the front lines? Or are you happy to send money so someone else’s child can carry a gun and be shot?
Blessed are the Peacemakers. Who is a Peacemaker? Why are there none today?
What made WWII remarkable was the aftermath. The US directly assisted both Europe and Japan – its great enemy – to rebuild. That recovery is missing from all wars since. Rather the USA has proven it can destroy enemy countries but it fails to rebuild them better. Without the rebuilding, American war making has devolved into plunder, where the war makers profit and people suffer, never actually being freed from oppression.
Hmm… causes.. a catastrophic failure of diplomacy on the one hand. I do wish nations would at least try to get along with each other. I’ve read there are on the one hand Orthodox Christian threads in this war, schism between the Ukrainian and Russian churches.. a turning of much of Ukraine towards the west with a somewhat cavalier disregard towards the feelings of their Russian neighbours, and ethnic Russians living in Ukraine not having been particularly happy about that. What is true and what is propaganda is hard to tell. But it seems to me at least that Ukraine have been somewhat careless in diplomatic relations with Russia for some time. I will be far from happy if the rest of the world gets dragged into this dispute. Is Russia a difficult neighbour. Yes they are. All the more reason to exercise careful diplomacy. In my view nations have a global responsibility to be good neighbours. Not that the UK is doing any better at the moment with the whole Brexit fiasco… I don’t get the sense that Western Europe has any great appetite for war, and rather views current events with horror.
Hmmm. My bets are against WWIII happening anytime soon. Russia and what army? A bunch of convicts? Men who don’t want to fight? Hundreds of thousands of men who have fled the country? Russia and what allies? Belarus and who else? No one else in Europe. Sure, India and China are tepid, but they’re not in it too hard. The Ukraine War will fizzle out over the next couple of years. During WWI and WWII there were lots of youth to fight. But now, Russia and Ukraine both have high aging populations. The whole spectacle is a testament to just how weak Russia actually is. China is a similar story. A massive aging population. The collective will of the people is for those young folks to take care of the elderly. And then maybe I’m wrong. OK, contact me and make me eat my words then. But for now my money is on no WWIII.
A Disciple, bear in mind that the US was able to reconstruct Japan and Germany because the scale of destruction was so massive in both those countries. 4.3 million Germans killed. 2.5-3 million Japanese killed. WWII wore Japan and Germany to utter exhaustion. No war that the US has brought to any country has come close to such a scale of destruction since.
Happy New Year. Hey Yea the God JeZeus, that Harry Potter pathetic forgery: That Protocols of the Elders of Zion Czar slander – new testament – counterfeit; that Av-tumah Reptilian – dead.
Just like the false prophet Muhammad – together with Allah. Goyim rejoice: Happy Joyous New Year! Hail Deicide! You no longer have to waste your time praying to dead Gods.
Happy New Year, free at last, Free at last. LOL. These latest new Gods, gone the way of the Gods of Mt. Olympus, & Ceasar’s pantheon of Gods. Drinks on the House! לחיים. Freedom! Now that these new Gods – dead – Abracadabra!! Poof. Both Heaven and Hell cease to exist, like a rabbit pulled out of a hat.